Chinese Pine Nuts Hold Firm as New Crop Builds in the West

Chinese export prices for pine nuts are holding steady in late August, with limited nearby supply and manageable logistics offsetting early signs of a stronger 2026 crop. Buyers face a stable but firm market rather than any clear softening signal over the next few days. Chinese pine nut trade remains centred on stable FOB Dalian offers while the new cone and nut harvest in western producing regions gradually scales up. High summer humidity along the Liaodong coast has not yet disrupted port operations, and container waiting times at Dalian remain short, containing logistics risk. Meanwhile, western regions such as Xinjiang report strong progress in nut harvests more broadly, reinforcing expectations that overall 2026 tree nut availability in China will be better than last year. For now, however, most of this improving supply outlook is still forward-looking rather than visible in spot pine nut prices.

Prices

Spot export indications for Chinese pine nuts (kernels, CN origin, FOB Dalian) are broadly stable versus mid-August. Converting the latest quotations to EUR using an indicative rate of 1 EUR ≈ 1.10 USD, current levels translate to roughly EUR 13.75–14.30/kg, with no meaningful week‑on‑week change apparent in late August. This flat pattern suggests a balanced nearby market, where buyers are not yet seeing enough new-crop selling pressure to push values lower.

Broader nut price benchmarks for China published earlier this year show year‑on‑year softness in average nut prices, but these data are from May and do not yet capture the more recent firmness specific to pine nuts that followed prior supply contraction.

Supply & Demand

China remains the dominant player in the global pine nut chain, importing cones and in-shell product from neighbouring origins such as Mongolia and Siberia for shelling and re‑export. Earlier industry analyses highlighted a sharp tightening of Chinese pine nut raw material availability in recent seasons, with a significant price impact, but also flagged expectations for a larger 2026 crop.

Recent Chinese media coverage points to strong momentum in western tree nut sectors, notably walnuts in Xinjiang’s Hotan region, where over 260,000 mu of orchards have entered peak harvest with full value chains from planting to processing. While this news is walnut‑focused, it underlines the broader expansion and professionalization of nut production and processing in western China, supporting the narrative of gradually improving overall nut supply and infrastructure, which indirectly eases medium‑term tightness in pine nuts as well.

Logistics & Trade Flows

From a logistics perspective, Dalian continues to function as a key maritime outlet for northern Chinese bulk and containerised exports, including pine nuts. Recent port congestion analytics show Dalian in a low‑to‑stable congestion band, with median waiting times below one day in mid‑to‑late August. This points to limited risk of near‑term shipment delays specifically linked to Dalian operations.

More broadly, Asia-wide container markets are still digesting earlier weather events and vessel routing shifts, but congestion pressure is concentrated in southern China and other hubs rather than in Dalian itself. For pine nut shippers in Liaoning, this means freight rates remain elevated in line with regional benchmarks, yet there are no acute bottlenecks that would force exporters to adjust FOB pricing in the coming days.

Weather Outlook (CN)

The 3‑day weather outlook for Dalian (August 28–30) calls for warm, humid conditions with periods of cloud, showers and thunderstorms, but no severe storms or typhoons. Daytime highs are expected around 26–35°C with sticky humidity and intermittent rainfall. These conditions may cause short, temporary handling slowdowns at port and warehouses but are unlikely to materially disrupt loading schedules.

In the main pine nut harvesting regions further inland (such as Inner Mongolia and northeast forest areas), late‑August conditions are seasonally favourable and recent reports highlight ongoing forest‑based economic activities rather than any weather stress. Overall, there is no immediate meteorological threat to Chinese pine nut supply or export logistics visible over the next several days.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Flat-to-firm bias near term: With stable FOB Dalian values and no major harvest or logistics shock in China, pine nut prices are expected to trade sideways with a modestly firm tone into early September.
• Deferred buying on larger volumes: Larger industrial buyers who can wait may consider staggering purchases, keeping some volume for Q4 when more concrete evidence of a larger 2026 crop (China and neighbouring origins) could unlock slightly softer offers.
• Spot coverage for nearby needs: Roasters and packers with immediate requirements should secure short‑term coverage now, as there is little downside catalyst in the 1–2 week horizon but some residual risk from freight and FX volatility.

3‑Day Price Indication (EUR, directional)

• Dalian FOB CN pine nuts 1200 ct: ≈ EUR 13.7–13.9/kg, expected stable over the next 3 days.
• Dalian FOB CN pine nuts 950 ct: ≈ EUR 14.2–14.4/kg, expected stable over the next 3 days.