Chinese Pine Nut FOB Dalian Prices Hold Firm as Bigger 2026 Crop Looms

Chinese pine nut FOB prices in Dalian are stable to slightly firmer, with no immediate downside despite expectations of a much larger 2026 domestic crop and higher Russian export tariffs supporting raw material costs. Chinese pine nuts remain a key origin for global buyers, with Dalian acting as a major export hub. Current pricing reflects tight but orderly spot availability, while markets start to price in sharply higher 2026/27 global supplies after strong production forecasts for China and Russia. At the same time, Russian export tariff hikes on in-shell pine nuts and ongoing trade frictions are likely to keep shelled export prices from collapsing, even in a surplus year.

Prices

FOB Dalian offers for Chinese pine nuts are broadly steady compared with early August. Converting current indications into euros (using an approximate 1 EUR = 1.10 USD), benchmark levels are:

Over the past three weeks, prices have edged up only marginally in USD terms and are now consolidating, suggesting that current levels are accepted by both Chinese sellers and international buyers. Stable freight costs on Asia–Europe routes and a lack of aggressive spot buying from Europe and the Middle East are also keeping the market range-bound.

Supply & Demand

China remains the dominant processor and exporter of pine nuts to Europe and other major consuming markets, sourcing both domestic and imported in-shell material from Russia, Mongolia and North Korea for processing and re-export. Recent EU trade data confirm that imports of edible fruits and nuts from China, including pine nuts, have continued to grow in value, signalling resilient demand despite broader trade tensions.

On the supply side, Russia’s Siberian regions have increased shipments of in-shell pine nuts to China in recent seasons, and Buryatia alone has exported several thousand tonnes to Chinese buyers. However, Moscow has classified Siberian pine nuts as a strategic good and is sharply raising export tariffs on in-shell shipments from August 2024 and again from August 2025, structurally lifting raw material costs for Chinese processors.

Fundamentals

The latest industry projections for the 2024/25 season point to a strong rebound in global in-shell pine nut output to around 136,820 tonnes, a 75% increase year-on-year when including all major origins. China’s production is expected to surge by about 139% to roughly 80,000 tonnes, while Russia’s crop could more than triple to about 20,000 tonnes.

Including carry-in stocks, total global supply is forecast near 171,990 tonnes, implying a comfortable surplus compared with recent years. Nevertheless, the combination of higher Russian export tariffs and continued robust European import demand for Chinese-processed nuts should cap downside for FOB Dalian shelled prices, especially for higher-grade counts that face less direct competition.

Weather & Harvest Outlook (CN)

For the next three days (15–18 August 2026), Dalian in northeastern China is forecast to see warm, humid late-summer conditions with temperatures mostly in the mid-20s to around 30°C, scattered clouds and only brief showers. This is broadly favourable for logistics and port operations, with no significant disruption expected for container loading or inland truck movements.

Key pine nut growing and collection areas in northeastern China (including Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia) are in the late summer phase; no major acute weather shocks have been reported in the past few days, and moisture profiles appear adequate. This supports expectations of a normal to above-normal harvest flow into Chinese processing plants over the coming weeks.

Trading Outlook

• Short-term (next 1–3 weeks): FOB Dalian prices for 950 and 1200 count pine nuts are likely to trade sideways, with a slight upward bias if buyers accelerate pre-season coverage ahead of increased Russian tariffs and as new-crop quality is confirmed.
• Q4 2026: As larger 2026 supplies materialise, some easing in euro-denominated prices is possible, but any correction is expected to be moderate due to higher upstream tariff costs and steady European demand for Chinese-origin product.
• Risk management: Importers with uncovered positions for late 2026 should consider layering in purchases on small dips, while producers may use current firmness to lock in forward sales, particularly for premium sizes.

3-Day Price Direction (EUR, CN FOB)

• Dalian – Pine nuts 950 count: Stable to slightly firmer (0–1% upside in EUR terms over three days).
• Dalian – Pine nuts 1200 count: Stable, with a narrow range and limited downside expected.