Chinese Pine Nut FOB Prices Steady in Dalian as Heatwaves Loom

Chinese pine nut FOB prices in Dalian are flat week‑on‑week, with only a mild softening visible over the past month despite stronger seasonal heat and scattered rainfall in producing regions of Northeast China. Tight but adequate raw material supply and stable export demand are keeping the market in a narrow range. Weather risks for late summer remain a key watchpoint but have not yet translated into price volatility. Pine nut export prices in Dalian are currently moving sideways in a relatively tight band, with both 950 and 1200 count material showing no change compared with the previous week. Export pipelines towards Europe and the Middle East remain active, supported by resilient tree‑nut demand despite broader consumer caution. Recent Chinese agro‑meteorological reports point to generally favorable but hot summer conditions, while national climate outlooks highlight a tendency to above‑normal temperatures in eastern and northeastern China, which could stress pine forests if heat intensifies later in the season.

Prices

On 25 July 2026, Dalian FOB offers for Chinese pine nuts were broadly stable compared with 18 July, with no week‑on‑week movement for main grades. Over the last four weeks, prices have eased slightly but without signs of disorderly selling, suggesting a broadly balanced spot market.

EUR values are approximate conversions of current USD‑equivalent offers. The flat weekly move combined with a modest month‑on‑month decline signals a market in consolidation after earlier firmness.

Supply & Demand

China remains the dominant player in the global pine nut trade, both as a harvester and as a processor of raw cones from Mongolia, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia, which are then re‑exported as Chinese product. Global production data from industry sources still show Asia, led by China, accounting for the bulk of world pine nut supply in 2025/26, with relatively limited buffer stocks compared with other tree nuts.

Recent Chinese customs communication indicates that overall trade with Central and Eastern Europe grew by around 11% year‑on‑year in the first half of 2026, underlining solid demand for a range of Chinese food exports despite macroeconomic headwinds. While this is not pine‑nut specific, it supports the view that European and related markets remain receptive to Chinese specialty nuts at current price levels.

Weather & Crop Conditions (China)

National agro‑meteorological bulletins issued around 20 July describe generally adequate moisture for summer crops, with localized heavy rainfall but no nationwide drought stress. For forest and mountain areas where key pine species are collected, these conditions are broadly supportive of cone development, though accessibility can be temporarily affected by storms.

Climate outlooks for July highlight a tendency for above‑normal temperatures across much of eastern China in summer 2026. This pattern is consistent with high‑heat conditions already reported in several provinces and implies some medium‑term risk of heat‑related stress to pine forests if high temperatures persist into August.

Short‑Term Weather – Dalian Focus

City‑level forecasts for Dalian for the period around 26–29 July 2026 call for warm and humid conditions, with daytime highs near 29°C and lows around 24°C, under mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions are seasonally normal for late July on the Liaoning coast and should not materially disrupt logistics through the port.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks and recent crop: Industry balances for 2025/26 show relatively modest global ending stocks of pine nuts (around 17,000 tonnes projected), down sharply from the prior season, leaving limited cushion against new supply shocks. This underpins the current price floor despite softer spot demand in some consumer markets.
• Chinese processing hub role: Processing clusters in Northeast China, including Dalian‑linked facilities, continue to rely on imported unshelled pine nuts from neighboring origin countries, which are then shelled, graded and re‑exported. Any disruptions in cross‑border cone flows or land logistics would quickly be reflected in FOB offers.
• Demand side: European and Middle Eastern buyers face higher logistics and energy costs amid ongoing global shipping and energy market disruptions, but tree‑nut demand has remained resilient, with nuts positioned as premium yet versatile ingredients. For pine nuts specifically, their use in pesto, bakery and snack applications supports a price‑inelastic core segment.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

With FOB Dalian pine nut prices flat week‑on‑week and only mildly softer over the month, the near‑term bias is for continued range‑bound trading. Weather‑related risks for forests in Northeast China and neighboring suppliers will be closely watched into August, but current forecasts do not yet justify a weather‑premium spike.

Trading recommendations

• Importers / roasters: Consider covering 1–2 months of forward needs at current levels, using today’s stable prices as an opportunity to rebuild working stocks while global ending stocks remain historically tight.
• Buyers with high inventory: Avoid aggressive forward selling; instead, maintain moderate coverage and monitor August weather in Asian production belts, as any shift to persistent heat and dryness could quickly tighten the market.
• Producers / exporters in China: Given the narrow margin between recent highs and current levels, prioritize quality differentiation and timely shipment execution rather than price discounts to stimulate additional demand.

3‑Day Price Indication (EUR, Directional)

Given current weather forecasts for Dalian and stable export interest, no significant price moves are anticipated over the next three trading days, barring unexpected policy or logistics shocks.