Chinese Pumpkin Seed Kernels Hold Firm as Freight Eases from Recent Highs

Chinese pumpkin seed kernel prices are broadly stable to slightly firmer, with only marginal adjustments across grades while export logistics costs remain elevated but show first signs of softening on some lanes. The near‑term balance points to a steady market with limited downside as buyers watch new‑crop development and freight volatility. China’s pumpkin seed kernel market is trading in a narrow range, with shine skin AA and GWS AA grades in Beijing and Dalian showing only minor day‑to‑day changes. Exporters remain supported by tight EU‑compliant stocks and by still‑high ocean freight from China to Europe, even as some indicators hint that container rates may be near a short‑term peak. Weather in key shipping hubs Beijing and Dalian is hot, humid and stormy but not yet disruptive. For the next few days, price risk looks skewed slightly to the upside for premium grades, while lower grades are likely to move sideways.

Prices

All prices converted from USD FOB China at an indicative 1 EUR = 1.10 USD.

Prices in Dalian for comparable shine skin and GWS grades are broadly aligned with Beijing, indicating a cohesive domestic export offer structure.

Supply & Demand

Recent international market commentary suggests that Chinese pumpkin seed kernels remain supported by low remaining stocks from the 2025 crop and tight availability of EU‑compliant material, which keeps spot supply firm despite the seasonal lull.  EU buyers are increasingly focused on new‑crop development, but concrete yield signals from Chinese growing regions are still limited at this early stage.

China’s broader grain sector has reported a small year‑on‑year increase in summer grain output, pointing to generally adequate field conditions and farm management.  While this data does not cover pumpkin specifically, it indicates that, on average, weather and input availability have not seriously constrained crop potential so far.

Weather Outlook (CN Hubs)

In Beijing, the next three days (23–25 July 2026) are forecast to be mostly cloudy, hot and humid, with daytime highs around 29–32°C and frequent thunderstorms, especially in the afternoons.  This may cause short‑term loading delays during heavy storms but is unlikely to affect overall pipeline flows.

Dalian is expected to see hot, humid weather as well, with highs around 35–36°C through 25 July and only isolated thunderstorms.  Port operations should remain largely normal, though heat may reduce daytime handling efficiency. Critically, no large‑scale flooding or typhoon‑related disruption is indicated in the very short term.

Logistics & Cost Drivers

China–Europe ocean freight remains expensive, with current spot levels around USD 4,500–5,500 per 40ft container to North Europe, following strong increases since early June.  Recent analyses note that, after several weeks of sharp hikes, some Asia–Europe spot rates have begun to edge down slightly, suggesting a potential near‑term plateau rather than further steep gains. 

Air freight from China to Europe has softened in July amid weaker cross‑border e‑commerce demand and higher cargo capacity,  which marginally improves flexibility for urgent pumpkin kernel shipments. Overall, elevated but stabilizing freight costs underpin FOB price resilience and limit downside for exporters in the short term.

Trading Outlook

• Exporters (CN): Maintain offer discipline for AA grades; with freight stabilizing at high levels and firm EU interest in new‑crop coverage, discounting appears unnecessary for nearby positions.
• Importers (EU/UK): Consider scaling in on dips for shine skin and GWS AA, especially if freight quotes show minor relief. The fundamental backdrop of tight old‑crop stocks still argues against waiting for deep price corrections.
• Roasters/Packers: Lower grades (A/A+) in Beijing and Dalian offer comparatively better value; forward cover a portion of Q4 needs while monitoring new‑crop field reports for any yield‑driven pullbacks.

3‑Day Price Direction (EUR, indicative)

• Beijing FOB shine skin AA (organic & conventional): Bias: steady to slightly firmer (+0–1%) as freight and tightness support offers.
• Beijing FOB GWS AA/A: Bias: broadly steady; modest upside if new EU buying emerges.
• Dalian FOB shine skin & GWS grades: Bias: steady; regional weather and port conditions currently neutral for pricing.