Chinese Soybean Meal Rebounds Despite Heavy Global Supplies

Chinese soybean meal prices have rebounded in July 2026, rising more than 6% month‑on‑month despite record global soybean supply and heavy Brazilian export flows. The price recovery looks fragile, however, as meal inventories in China climb and large August arrivals are set to cap further upside. July trading has been shaped by strong Brazilian shipments into China, robust domestic crushing and only moderate downstream demand growth. While poultry and aquaculture feed keep baseline consumption stable, a weak swine sector and cautious purchasing by feed mills are limiting the duration of the rally. Internationally, physical soybean offers from key origins remain competitive, and local spot prices in China show only mild firming. With another record global crop on the horizon, market participants should treat current strength as an opportunity to tidy coverage rather than a signal of a sustained bull run.

Prices

According to July assessments, China’s average soybean meal price rose from 2,904 yuan/MT at the start of the month to around 3,086 yuan/MT by 29 July, a gain of 6.27% month‑on‑month. This recovery follows prior weakness and has occurred despite abundant global soybean availability.

In the physical bean market, recent offers indicate only modest changes. Using an approximate rate of 7.4 CNY per EUR, the implied Chinese soybean meal price sits near EUR 416/MT, still within the broader range seen over the past year. Spot soybean offers from China, Ukraine, the US and India – converted from USD-based FOB/CPT values – remain relatively competitive and show no clear global shortage signal.

Supply & Demand

Global soybean production in 2026/27 is forecast at a record 442 million metric tons, underscoring the fundamentally well‑supplied backdrop. Brazil remains the dominant origin, with July soybean exports estimated around 13.5–13.8 million tons, while China’s July imports are expected to exceed 10 million tons, confirming strong inbound flows into its crushing sector.

Within China, crushers are operating aggressively, processing about 2.2–2.4 million tons of soybeans per week. This has pushed soybean meal inventories sharply higher, reaching close to 900,000 tons by 24 July. In contrast, end‑user demand is more measured: feed consumption of soybean meal is assessed at 1.45–1.50 million tons per week. Seasonal strength in poultry and aquaculture supports offtake, but the weaker swine sector is restricting additional demand growth.

Feed manufacturers are responding with cautious purchasing strategies, avoiding large forward bookings and preferring hand‑to‑mouth coverage. This behavior, combined with rising inventories, indicates that the recent price rebound is more a reflection of short‑term positioning and logistics than a structural tightening of fundamentals. Large soybean arrivals expected in August are likely to keep the domestic Chinese meal market comfortably supplied.

Fundamentals & Weather

The combination of record global production prospects and Brazil’s strong export pace keeps international soybean fundamentals comfortably bearish to neutral. While Chicago futures have recently experienced bouts of volatility linked to US weather and speculative activity, the underlying balance still points to ample availability for importers, particularly in Asia. Nearby flat prices in Brazil and the US remain competitive when converted into euros, limiting the upside for Chinese import costs.

Weather in key producing regions currently does not pose an acute threat to the global outlook. Short‑term forecasts for Mato Grosso and other central Brazilian areas indicate seasonally dry but not extreme conditions for this time of year, in line with the region’s off‑cycle period for soybean development. In the US Midwest, medium‑range outlooks show a mix of moderate temperatures and localized showers, sufficient for maintaining yield potential in most soybean zones, though markets will continue to react to any pockets of heat or dryness.

Against this backdrop, China’s rapid build‑up of soybean meal stocks is especially important. High inventories create a buffer against short‑term supply disruptions and tend to cap rallies, as crushers and traders are more willing to release stocks when prices spike. As long as domestic crush margins remain positive and import flows steady, the market is more exposed to downside price adjustments than to sustained rallies.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

Analysts expect the Chinese soybean meal market to remain volatile but to trend softer overall into August, assuming no major weather shock or abrupt recovery in swine feed demand. With large soybean arrivals scheduled and inventories already elevated, price forecasts point to a working range of roughly 2,700–3,000 yuan/MT for soybean meal during August, modestly below late‑July levels.

• For feed buyers in China: Use current strength near the upper end of the 2,700–3,000 yuan/MT range to extend coverage modestly into August, but avoid over‑buying while inventories are high.
• For crushers: Maintain disciplined crush rates; consider forward selling meal when prices revisit recent highs, given the risk of margin compression once additional Brazilian and US supplies arrive.
• For international sellers: Brazil and Ukraine retain a competitive edge into China and other Asian markets; monitor freight and FX for opportunities to lock in margins on Q3–Q4 shipments.
• For speculative traders: Favor selling rallies in China‑linked meal exposure, with tight risk limits, while watching US weather headlines for short‑term volatility spikes.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR benchmarks)

• China FOB soybeans (Beijing): Slightly softer bias in EUR terms as high meal stocks and strong import flows cap upside.
• Black Sea soybeans (Odesa): Mildly firm to steady; competitive pricing in EUR and logistical premiums support floor levels.
• US FOB soybeans: Range‑bound with weather‑driven intraday swings, but record global supply tempers sustained rallies.