Indian Chickpea Squeeze Tightens Global Pulse Market

India’s chickpea market is tightening rapidly as domestic prices surge on renewed dal mill demand, depleted stocks and slowing arrivals, creating a firmly bullish tone with upside targets above EUR 56–60 per 100 kg in the coming weeks. A sharp structural gap between Indian chickpea production and consumption, heavy drawdown of old-crop stocks and only moderate import cover are converging to push whole chickpea and dal prices higher. Dal processors have returned as active buyers just as wholesale market inventories fall well below seasonal norms. Government procurement at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and expensive substitutes such as yellow peas are further tilting demand back toward chickpeas. Against this backdrop, Indian FCA/FOB offers around EUR 0.75–0.98/kg look poised to edge higher, while European buyers of processed chickpea products should prepare for sustained cost pressure at least through the second quarter.

Prices & Short-Term Trend

Spot prices in Delhi’s Lawrence Road wholesale market have moved sharply higher this week. Rajasthan-origin chickpeas gained about EUR 0.72 per 100 kg to trade around EUR 54.90–55.15 per 100 kg, while Madhya Pradesh-origin material is quoted near EUR 54.15–54.45. Jaipur-origin lots are at roughly EUR 54.45–54.75 per 100 kg, all showing the same daily increase of around EUR 0.72.

Processed chickpea dal is trading at a substantial premium, with average grades near EUR 60.95–62.90 per 100 kg and select premium qualities higher depending on moisture and grading. The current MSP sits close to EUR 57 per 100 kg, meaning spot whole chickpea prices at key hubs are converging toward, but still mostly below, the government floor. Parallel export and domestic offers confirm this firmer bias: Indian dried chickpeas FCA New Delhi currently range around EUR 0.75–0.95/kg, while FOB offers sit roughly in a EUR 0.86–0.98/kg band, modestly firmer than late April.

Supply & Demand Balance

The core driver of the current rally is a pronounced structural deficit in India. Output for the season is estimated near 9 million tonnes versus domestic use around 13 million tonnes, leaving a 4 million tonne gap that must be met through stocks and imports. Old-crop inventories in key producing states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka were already about 90% exhausted when new-crop arrivals began, severely limiting the available buffer.

Weather has aggravated this imbalance. Post-sowing rains in October–November caused estimated crop damage of roughly 26–27% in several northern producing regions, further tightening usable supply. More recently, the India Meteorological Department has flagged heatwave to severe heatwave conditions across Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh in mid-May, a pattern that can accelerate stock deterioration and complicate logistics rather than boost near-term supply【turn0search2】【turn0search7】. Against this backdrop, dal mills are buying primarily to cover immediate needs, but traders and stockists are increasingly comfortable holding length as fundamentals and sentiment align in a bullish direction.

On the demand side, competition from substitute pulses is limited. Yellow peas, a key rival input for dal processors, face a 30% import duty and are currently landing at Indian ports at around EUR 40–41 per 100 kg, slightly above prevailing domestic yellow pea prices. This cost disadvantage is discouraging additional pea imports and effectively channelling more consumption back toward chickpeas, amplifying the tightness in the primary market.

Trade, Imports & Global Context

Import flows are not yet sufficient to ease the crunch. Australian chickpeas in containers for June–July delivery are quoted around 580 USD per tonne C&F into India, while Tanzanian origin is holding near 560 USD per tonne for May–June shipments. Much of the earlier Australian supply that had been feeding dal mills via the Mundra and Mumbai ports has now been absorbed, leaving the immediate pipeline looking notably thin.

Recent international market intelligence underscores that Australia retains a substantial exportable pulse surplus and is expected to remain the world’s largest chickpea exporter in 2025/26【turn0search6】【turn0search12】. However, current and forward CIF chickpea values into South Asia in the low- to mid-600 USD per tonne band indicate that Australian exporters are in no hurry to discount【turn0search0】. This keeps import replacement costs for India elevated and limits the scope for a meaningful correction in domestic prices unless a new wave of competitively priced offers emerges from Australia, Tanzania or other origins.

Government policy is also shaping flows. New Delhi has extended procurement deadlines and raised purchasing volumes under the MSP scheme in Maharashtra, but arrivals into state wholesale markets have already slowed noticeably compared with earlier in the season. With MSP near EUR 57 per 100 kg and many interior markets still trading below that level, farmer selling pressure is gradually easing while processors and traders continue to compete for high-quality lots in urban hubs. Globally, India’s tightening situation coincides with broader firmness across the pulse complex as multiple importing countries tap into limited Australian supply, reinforcing a structurally tight landscape.

Weather & Risk Outlook

Weather remains a key near-term risk factor. The IMD expects heatwave to severe heatwave conditions over West Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh through mid-May, with maximum temperatures in some districts nearing 48°C【turn0search2】【turn0search7】. While the main rabi chickpea harvest is already complete, such heat can increase post-harvest losses in on-farm and mandi stocks and stress transport and storage chains.

Looking further ahead, early season assessments highlight below-normal monsoon risks for parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra under El Niño conditions, raising concern about moisture recharge and the broader pulses planting environment later in the year【turn0search9】. Although this will not change immediate physical availability, it amplifies medium-term supply uncertainty and may encourage stockists to hold more inventory, reinforcing the current upward pressure on prices.

Price Forecast & Market Sentiment

Market consensus within India is clearly bullish. With the consumption–production gap firmly established, old-crop stocks largely depleted and imported volumes insufficient to close the deficit, domestic traders widely anticipate that whole chickpea prices will break above about EUR 56.50 per 100 kg before mid-June. Several analysts see scope for a move toward roughly EUR 61–62 per 100 kg once the current phase of Australian import selling slows and the local pipeline tightens further.

Speculative behaviour remains measured but supportive. Dal mills are limiting coverage to immediate or short-term needs, providing steady but not aggressive demand. In contrast, stockists and larger traders are increasingly comfortable carrying positions into early summer, confident that downside risk is cushioned by MSP support, high dal prices and expensive substitutes. For European buyers of Indian processed chickpea products, this environment signals elevated input costs through at least the second quarter, with limited relief even if global freight or energy prices soften at the margin.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers & food manufacturers (EU/MENA): Consider accelerating coverage for Q2–Q3 needs while Indian export offers remain below the implied domestic upside targets. Stagger purchases, but avoid being structurally short given tightening fundamentals and a firm Australian floor.
• Dal mills in India: Maintain disciplined, need-based buying but lengthen coverage modestly into June where financing allows, especially for quality lots. High dal premiums over whole chickpeas still offer reasonable processing margins, but a further raw material rally could compress these quickly.
• Traders & stockists: Current fundamentals continue to justify a cautiously long stance, particularly in deficit consuming regions. However, closely monitor signals of larger-than-expected imports from Australia or East Africa and any policy shifts (e.g., changes to pea duties) that could redirect demand away from chickpeas.
• Farmers in key producing states: With local prices moving toward MSP and strong urban demand, structured sales over the next 4–6 weeks can help manage risk while still capturing a share of the bullish move, especially where on-farm storage conditions are vulnerable to heat.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

• India – Delhi wholesale (whole chickpeas): Stable to slightly firmer bias over the next three days, with an upside skew of 0.5–1.5% as arrivals remain light and heat hampers logistics.
• India – FCA New Delhi export offers: Likely to hold within roughly EUR 0.75–0.95/kg but may edge higher by up to 1–2% if domestic markets push closer to MSP and CFR replacement costs stay elevated【turn0search0】.
• Australia – export parity to South Asia: No major change expected in the very short term; CIF values into India in the low- to mid-600 USD/tonne range act as a firm floor, limiting downside for competing origins and supporting the global price structure【turn0search0】【turn0search12】.