Indian Chickpeas Hold Firm as Heatwave Meets Steady Supply

Indian chickpeas prices in New Delhi are broadly steady to slightly firmer across key Kabuli sizes, with export parity still competitive despite a strong heatwave in North India and only moderately supportive external demand. Indian chickpeas (Kabuli) are trading in a narrow band, with small-size grades edging higher and large sizes showing mild softening week-on-week in New Delhi, both for FCA and FOB business. A severe heatwave over northwest India, including Delhi, is raising near-term concerns on handling and transport costs but is not yet translating into acute supply stress, as national chickpea balances remain comfortable and export demand is steady rather than booming. Weather forecasts show very hot and dry conditions in the New Delhi region over the next three days, while international chickpea markets remain well supplied, limiting upside for Indian exporters.

Prices & Spreads

All prices converted at approx. 1 EUR = 90 INR for comparison.

Domestic benchmark Kabuli prices reported around ₹6,660/quintal (≈0.74 EUR/kg) on 12 May, with the latest official update on 14 May confirming stable levels, broadly consistent with the current FCA indications in North India.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Recent market commentary highlights that India’s overall chickpea balance sheet is comfortable, but Kabuli availability is somewhat tighter than earlier expected, which is providing a floor under prices. Exports into 2026 remain steady, though buyers are increasingly price-sensitive and have alternative origins such as Mexico, Turkey, Australia and Canada, capping upside for Indian offers.

Marketing activity from Indian exporters remains visible, with several firms actively promoting Kabuli and desi chickpeas to bulk buyers and food processors in Asia and the Middle East, signalling that exportable surplus is still adequate. However, competition and freight costs mean Indian sellers must maintain tight spreads versus other origins; the current New Delhi FCA versus FOB structure suggests only modest room for exporters to widen margins further without losing demand.

🌡️ Weather & Logistics (Region: IN)

Northwest India, including Delhi, is currently under a pronounced heatwave, with IMD and national media warning of severe conditions across Rajasthan, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh at least through 19 May. In New Delhi specifically, forecasts point to sunny, extremely hot weather with daytime highs around 44–45°C over 16–19 May and no significant rainfall seen.

The immediate impact on chickpeas is more logistical than agronomic: high temperatures increase risks for storage quality, handling, and transport, and may raise local freight and labour costs. IMD’s broader May outlook suggests above-normal heatwave days in parts of northwest India, implying that these pressures could persist into late May, but there is no indication yet of a serious crop loss event for already-harvested chickpeas.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Comfortable overall supply, tighter Kabuli segment: Desi chickpea stocks are described as adequate, while Kabuli availability is only moderately tight, underpinning current prices but limiting sharp rallies.
• External demand steady, not exuberant: International buyers have shifted to more selective, price-driven purchasing, with multiple origins competing for the same tenders, keeping a lid on Indian FOB values.
• Macro backdrop: Broader Indian export data show uneven global demand across sectors, echoing the cautious tone seen in chickpea trade flows.
• Weather risk premium: Persistent heat in north and northwest India is adding a small risk premium to nearby positions due to storage and logistics risk, but the lack of imminent rainfall disruptions keeps physical flows broadly normal for now.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View (IN)

• Short-term bias: Sideways to mildly firm for mid-size Kabuli (44–48 count) as export and domestic demand absorb current offers, while the largest and smallest calibres may track slightly softer due to more ample availability.
• For buyers: Consider covering near-term needs within the next week while FCA New Delhi prices remain close to recent averages and before any sustained heat-related logistics issues feed through into local premia.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline on 10–12 mm Kabuli where tightness is more evident, but remain flexible on 8–9 mm sizes to stay competitive against Mexico and other origins.

3‑day directional view, New Delhi (IN, EUR/kg):

• Kabuli 42–44 (12 mm) FCA: 0.92–0.94, bias slightly softer to flat as buyers resist higher offers.
• Kabuli 44–48 (11–10 mm) FCA: 0.91–0.99, bias steady to +0.01 on continued interest from export-linked demand.
• Smaller sizes 58–62 (9–8 mm) FCA: 0.72–0.84, bias broadly sideways with limited fresh fundamental news.