Desiccated Coconut Prices Hold Steady as El Niño Drought Looms Over Southeast Asia
Desiccated coconut prices from Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam stay firm as El Niño dryness tightens raw nut supply and factories run near capacity.
Prices
Latest quotations for desiccated and dried coconut products show a flat week-on-week pattern, confirming that the correction phase of 2026 has paused for now. Export quotes for Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam remain largely unchanged compared with mid-August, aligning with broader industry commentary that desiccated prices are steady despite higher raw nut costs.
| Product | Origin | Location / Term | Current Price (EUR) | Trend vs. mid-Aug 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut dried, flakes (non-organic) | Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | 4.82 EUR | Sideways; last uptick in late Aug now consolidated |
| Coconut dried, flakes (organic) | Philippines | Dordrecht, FCA | 3.20 EUR | Stable since late Aug |
| Coconut dried, flakes (non-organic) | Philippines | Dordrecht, FCA | 2.75 EUR | Flat after small August correction |
| Coconut dried, desiccated | Indonesia | Dordrecht, FCA | 2.05 EUR | Stable after mild August softening |
| Coconut dried, desiccated medium grade | Indonesia | Dordrecht, FCA | 2.03 EUR | Sideways |
While our quotations are in EUR on a FCA/FOB basis, external trade data confirm that Southeast Asian exporters continue to dominate global desiccated coconut shipments, with Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines jointly accounting for a large share of world exports. This strong competitive set caps upside in the short term, even as weather risks intensify.
Supply & Demand
On the supply side, Indonesian coconut areas are currently under a very strong El Niño, leading to markedly dry conditions and reduced cloud cover across many provinces. This increases moisture stress for palms and is likely to squeeze nut availability into late 2026 and 2027, though the impact on current desiccated throughput is still limited.
In the Philippines, recent agricultural reporting highlights weather-related damage to several crops from enhanced southwest monsoon and multiple tropical systems, though core coconut belts remain operational and export logistics continue. Export shipment data for desiccated coconut from the Philippines show active flows through mid-September, underscoring that factories are running at decent capacity for now.
Vietnamese processors report heavy booking of desiccated coconut capacity, with many factories unable to accept immediate-delivery orders and pushing new shipments beyond early September due to full order books and extended holidays. This tightness in Vietnamese nearby supply adds some support to premium flakes pricing ex-Hanoi, even as broader global demand remains broadly stable.
Exclusive commodities on CMBroker
Weather & Crop Conditions (ID / PH / VN)
Indonesia (ID)
Indonesia is experiencing a very strong El Niño event, maintaining dry and hot conditions across much of the archipelago. National monitoring shows long runs of days without rain in several regions, consistent with a protracted dry season. For coconut, this raises concerns about nut setting and size for the 2027 crop, though trees remain generally resilient in the short term.
Philippines (PH)
In the Philippines, September is climatologically one of the most active months for tropical cyclones. Current forecasts call for continued influence of the southwest monsoon, low pressure areas, and potential storms, particularly over western and northern regions. While severe events can disrupt harvesting and logistics, so far the coconut sector has largely maintained operations, with only localized disruptions reported in broader agriculture.
Vietnam (VN)
In Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, a key coconut area, September remains squarely in the wet season with high humidity and frequent showers. Recent regional assessments for the 2025/26 crop year suggest generally favourable conditions for perennial crops, despite episodes of localized dryness and saline intrusion earlier in the year. This supports stable nut inflows to factories, explaining the strong utilisation currently observed.
Fundamentals & Trade Flows
Industry analysis indicates that the desiccated coconut market in 2026 is in a correction phase after the sharp price spikes of 2024–early 2025, with export prices now broadly stable across Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. Global trade data show modest declines in shipment counts over the latest twelve months, pointing to slightly softer demand and improved supply compared with the peak tightness period.
However, raw coconut prices in origin countries have been edging higher, driven by weather risks, competition from coconut oil and charcoal markets, and rising production costs. Exporters are therefore reluctant to discount desiccated product aggressively, preferring to defend margins, particularly on higher value flakes and organic lines.
On the demand side, major importers such as the EU, Russia and the US continue to rely heavily on Southeast Asian supply. Food manufacturers’ usage remains stable, with limited evidence of demand destruction at current price levels. This balance between firm costs and steady demand is keeping desiccated coconut in a narrow trading range, but with a slight upward bias should weather risks materialise more sharply.
Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price View
Trading Outlook (next 2–4 weeks)
- Buyers (EU food industry): Use current sideways prices (around 2.03–2.05 EUR for Indonesian desiccated FCA Dordrecht and 2.75–3.20 EUR for Philippine flakes FCA Dordrecht) to cover Q4 core needs; consider layering small additional volumes for early-2027 against El Niño risk.
- Asian and Middle Eastern buyers: Given firm factory utilisation in Vietnam and tight nearby slots, avoid waiting for meaningful discounts from Vietnamese flakes suppliers; diversify origin coverage with Indonesia/Philippines where logistics allow.
- Sellers/processors: Maintain offer discipline on nearby positions, especially for premium flakes and organic PH product, but stay flexible on forward months to capture hedging demand from risk-averse buyers.
3‑Day Regional Directional Price Indication
- Indonesia (ID) desiccated, FCA EU: Sideways to mildly firmer bias over the next 3 days, with buyers probing but little seller pressure due to El Niño dryness and firm nut costs.
- Philippines (PH) flakes, FCA EU: Sideways; active shipments and adequate factory throughput counterbalance weather and logistics risks, keeping prices range-bound in the immediate term.
- Vietnam (VN) flakes, FOB origin: Sideways to slightly firmer as full order books and weather-backed nut supply limit immediate availability; any new nearby offers likely to price at or just above current levels.