Desiccated Coconut Prices Hold Steady as El Niño Risk Builds in SE Asia
Desiccated coconut prices from Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam are stable, but a strengthening El Niño raises medium-term supply and price risks.
Prices
Current quotations show a stable picture across origins, with no week‑on‑week changes recorded on 25 September 2026:
| Product | Origin | Location / Term | Current Price (EUR) | 1-week Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut dried, flakes (conventional) | Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | 4.82 | Unchanged |
| Coconut dried, flakes (organic) | Philippines | Dordrecht, FCA | 3.20 | Unchanged |
| Coconut dried, flakes (conventional) | Philippines | Dordrecht, FCA | 2.75 | Unchanged |
| Coconut dried, desiccated | Indonesia | Dordrecht, FCA | 2.05 | Unchanged |
| Coconut dried, desiccated medium grade | Indonesia | Dordrecht, FCA | 2.03 | Unchanged |
Since late August, all listed desiccated and flakes quotations have moved sideways, reflecting a market that previously corrected from 2024–25 highs and is now in a balance between comfortable near‑term supply and emerging weather risk.
Supply & Demand Drivers
Export availability from Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam remains adequate in the short term, but a rapidly strengthening El Niño is changing the risk outlook. Indonesia’s meteorological agency confirms a very strong El Niño with delayed 2026/27 rainy season, warning of drought and heightened fire risk across much of the archipelago.
Regional assessments from ASEAN and international agencies highlight a broad pattern of below‑normal rainfall and above‑normal temperatures across the southern Maritime Continent for September–November, which includes major coconut areas in Indonesia and parts of the southern Philippines. This raises the likelihood of moisture stress for coconut palms, lower nut setting, and potentially smaller copra and desiccated output into early 2027, even if immediate supply remains comfortable.
On the demand side, desiccated coconut consumption in Europe and other importing regions has normalized after the post‑pandemic surge and subsequent price spike, with the International Coconut Community describing 2026 as a correction phase following record highs in 2024–25. Buyers are presently covered on nearby positions but are starting to reassess forward coverage in light of weather‑driven crop risks.
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Weather Outlook (ID, PH, VN)
Indonesia (ID): National climate bulletins point to significantly reduced rainfall and prolonged dry conditions over many regions through at least October, linked to a very strong El Niño and a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole. For coconut‑growing provinces, this raises concern about soil moisture deficits, increased tree stress, and greater fire risk in plantation and smallholder areas.
Philippines (PH): Regional climate monitoring notes suppressed convection over much of Southeast Asia at times due to El Niño and MJO phases that limit rainfall, though eastern Maritime Continent zones can see intermittent enhancements. Overall, the short‑term pattern still leans drier and hotter than normal for many coconut belts, potentially trimming productivity if conditions persist.
Vietnam (VN): For mainland Southeast Asia, seasonal outlooks show mixed but often below‑normal rainfall pockets coupled with above‑normal temperatures. While Vietnam’s coconut production is smaller than that of Indonesia and the Philippines, high temperatures and irregular rainfall can affect flowering and nut filling, adding incremental risk to Vietnamese flakes supply later in the season.
Fundamentals & Market Sentiment
- Price action is flat across all monitored desiccated and flakes lines, underlining a market that has found a short‑term equilibrium.
- Global fundamentals have shifted from scarcity to more normal availability versus the extreme tightness seen in 2024–25, but inventories could erode quickly if El Niño‑related production losses materialize in the next crop cycles.
- Speculative participation in coconut is limited compared with larger agri‑commodities; current sentiment is fundamentally driven, with weather and regional logistics (including potential haze‑related disruptions in Indonesia) being key watchpoints.
Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View
- For buyers: With FCA and FOB prices stable and no immediate supply squeeze, near‑term spot and short‑dated coverage still looks attractive. However, given escalating El Niño signals, extending a portion of Q1–Q2 2027 coverage on dips appears prudent, especially for Indonesian and Philippine origins.
- For sellers: Origin exporters may maintain current offer levels over the coming days, using stable quotes to secure nearby business while keeping some capacity uncommitted for potential weather‑driven upside later this year.
- Risk management: Monitor updated rainfall and temperature forecasts for key coconut regions in Indonesia, the southern Philippines, and Vietnam as leading indicators for any shift from flat to firmer pricing.
3‑day directional outlook (ID, PH, VN): Given unchanged EUR quotations and no new immediate supply shocks, desiccated and flakes offers from Indonesia (FCA Dordrecht), the Philippines (FCA Dordrecht), and Vietnam (FOB Hanoi) are expected to remain stable over the next three days, with an upside bias only if fresh weather or logistics headlines emerge.