Dried mango prices soften slightly on stable Thai and Vietnamese supply

Dried mango prices from Vietnam and Thailand are edging slightly lower, with FOB Vietnam offers down about EUR 0.03/kg week‑on‑week and Thai-origin product in Europe holding steady. The modest easing reflects comfortable raw mango availability in both origins and seasonally strong processing activity rather than demand weakness. Spot activity is focused on near-term shipments from Vietnam and existing Thai stocks in Europe. Export data show Vietnam entering peak fruit season with robust fruit and vegetable exports, while Thai weather is shifting into a wetter southwest-monsoon pattern supportive of orchards. Over the next week, increased rainfall in eastern Thailand and steady showers in southern Vietnam should underpin fruit quality and stabilize dried output, keeping prices in a narrow range.

Prices & Spreads

Latest indications (all converted and rounded to EUR/kg):

Vietnamese FOB dried mango has slipped by roughly 0.5% versus late May, while Thai-origin product stored in the Netherlands is unchanged, leaving a discount of about EUR 1.0–1.2/kg for Thai material versus Vietnamese FOB offers. This keeps Thailand competitive for price-sensitive buyers, especially where sugar-added product is acceptable.

Supply, Demand & Weather (TH, VN)

Vietnam (VN): Official trade data indicate Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports in May 2026 reached about USD 615 million, up over 15% month-on-month, with mango among the key fruits moving into peak harvest season. Strong fresh supply reduces raw-material pressure for dryers, enabling slightly softer dried prices despite firm export activity.

In southern Vietnam’s key fruit provinces (e.g. Dong Nai, near Bien Hoa), 10‑day forecasts point to typical early-monsoon conditions: daytime highs around the low 30s°C, high humidity and frequent showers but no extreme events. This pattern supports fruit sizing and sugar accumulation while allowing intermittent drying, helping processors maintain stable throughput.

Thailand (TH): Thailand’s Meteorological Department has warned of a stronger southwest monsoon and a monsoon trough bringing increased rainfall across much of the country from 4–9 June, including eastern coastal areas such as Chanthaburi, a major tree-fruit region. Local 16‑day forecasts for Chanthaburi show persistent high humidity, temperatures in the low 30s°C, and recurrent showers. These conditions favour mango orchards but can intermittently slow sun/solar-assisted drying, although most export-oriented plants rely on controlled dryers.

Medium-term climate guidance for June highlights above-normal rainfall over eastern Thailand, but without acute flooding signals at this stage. Combined with earlier concerns about potential El Niño-linked heat and drought risks later in 2026, processors remain cautious about overcommitting long-term volumes even as near-term raw fruit availability is adequate.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• VN export momentum: Vietnam’s strong overall fruit and vegetable export growth into May, supported by peak-season mango supply, points to healthy demand from China and other Asian markets. This underpins steady offtake for dried mango even as prices ease marginally.
• TH supply & climate risk: Thailand faces an evolving climate backdrop with official commentary about El Niño-related drought risk for agriculture later in 2026, but current June conditions are wet, not dry. For now, raw mango supply for drying is not constrained, but future crops remain weather-sensitive.
• Processing & logistics: No fresh reports in the last three days indicate major logistical disruptions for dried mango exports from either Thailand or Vietnam. With factories operating normally, the small week-on-week price declines appear demand- and competition-driven rather than disruption-driven.

3–7 Day Outlook & Trading View

Weather outlook (relevant for TH, VN dried mango):

• Thailand (eastern orchards incl. Chanthaburi): Continued showers and thunderstorms with temperatures ~31–33°C; high humidity and episodes of heavy rain as the monsoon trough remains active.
• Vietnam (southern fruit belt around Dong Nai): Warm (highs ~31–33°C) with scattered showers and storms typical for early monsoon, but no major extremes currently signalled.

These conditions broadly support mango orchards in both origins and allow steady industrial drying, with only temporary slowdowns during heavier rain episodes.

Trading recommendations (short term)

• Buyers (EU/Asia): Consider using the current ~0.5% dip in Vietnamese FOB offers to extend coverage modestly for Q3, especially for higher-spec unsugared product, while avoiding over-long positions given climate uncertainty later in 2026.
• Buyers (price-sensitive, flexible spec): Thai-origin sugared dried mango in Europe remains around EUR 1.0–1.2/kg below Vietnamese FOB. This discount continues to justify partial substitution where formulation and labeling allow.
• Producers (TH, VN): Maintain price discipline; with no acute supply stress and healthy demand, further discounting risks eroding margins ahead of potential weather or cost shocks in late 2026.

3‑Day Price Direction (Indicative)

• VN dried mango FOB (Hanoi): Bias: Sideways to slightly softer (–0.5% to 0%) as export demand remains firm but competition between processors stays high.
• TH dried mango, FCA NL: Bias: Flat, with European warehouse stocks comfortable and no major demand spike expected over the next three days.