Early and Late-Season Frost Events Reshape Fruit Markets, But Raisin Supply Remains Stable for Now

Early and late-season frosts in key producing regions have become a recurrent shock for orchards and vineyards worldwide, tightening fruit supplies and increasing price risk. Recent severe spring frosts in Türkiye, Europe and North America have cut yields in apples, grapes, stone fruit and nuts, but current market data indicate that raisin supply and export flows remain largely stable, with only localised vineyard damage reported in parts of western Türkiye.

For commodity traders and food industry buyers, these frost events are now a structural risk factor: they periodically remove significant volumes of fresh fruit from the market, disrupt processing pipelines for juices and concentrates, and can alter raw material costs for dried fruit and nut users. While the latest Turkish vineyard reports point to only minor bud drop and no material downgrade to the 2026 raisin harvest outlook, the global track record of recent frost losses suggests ongoing upside risk to prices in sensitive crops.

Introduction

Early or late-season frosts are most damaging when they hit during bud break, flowering or early fruit set, when orchards and vineyards are physiologically vulnerable. In April 2025, Türkiye experienced one of its harshest agricultural frosts in decades, with temperatures reportedly falling to -15°C and affecting 36 of 81 provinces, including major fruit-growing areas such as Malatya and Manisa. Authorities and local grower groups reported extensive damage to grapes, apricots, apples, cherries and nuts, with Manisa’s vineyards estimated to have suffered up to 80% damage in some districts.

National assessments later suggested that Türkiye’s overall fruit harvest fell by roughly a quarter after the April frost, with yield losses above 50% in some grape and cherry areas. Similar patterns of frost-related loss have been documented elsewhere: New York State’s 2012 spring freeze cut Concord grape output by around 30% and generated USD 45–60 million in economic losses, with peaches and cherries also hit. These events illustrate how unseasonal cold snaps in otherwise temperate regions can have outsized effects on specialty crops and downstream processing industries.

🌍 Immediate Market Impact

The immediate market impact of severe frosts is a reduction in available fresh fruit supply, often concentrated in a few high-value categories. In Türkiye’s 2025 event, local stakeholders warned of a sharply tighter supply of table grapes and cherries, with some reports citing cherry prices between TRY 150–700/kg depending on quality, far above typical levels. In similar frost years, hazelnut and apricot prices have also spiked when damage rates were high in core producing provinces such as Malatya and the Black Sea coast.

However, recent transactional data in the raisin segment show a different picture. Turkish sultana prices for type 9 grade A FOB Malatya currently trade around USD 2.35/kg, only slightly above early-March levels, while CIF RTU offers remain steady near USD 2.40/kg. Indian raisin quotations (golden and brown, FOB New Delhi) are broadly flat to slightly softer compared with mid-March. This price stability reflects both diversified global origins and the fact that the most recent localized frost in the Alaşehir district of Manisa caused only limited bud drop and is not expected to materially reduce the forthcoming raisin crop.

📦 Supply Chain Disruptions

Frost events primarily act on supply via yield loss rather than by directly disrupting logistics infrastructure. Producers rarely face port closures or corridor disruptions; instead, supply chains are affected through smaller, more fragmented volumes and changes in quality profiles (smaller fruit size, higher defect rates). In Türkiye’s 2025 frost, growers in Manisa and Denizli reported that they would produce only half or less of their usual dried grape volumes, while some stone-fruit orchards were effectively written off for the season.

For processors and exporters, this translates into more complex procurement—sourcing from a larger number of farms to fill contracts—and occasional renegotiation of specifications. In extreme loss years, as seen previously in Turkish hazelnuts, processors may prioritise higher-margin segments and defer lower-grade or industrial business, tightening availability for some downstream users. Nevertheless, there is currently no evidence of structural disruption in export logistics for raisins or other shelf-stable fruit products; vessel schedules and port operations continue as normal, and weekly Turkish raisin exports recently reached about 2,667 tons, modestly above last year’s pace.

📊 Commodities Potentially Affected

• Fresh table grapes & wine grapes – Highly sensitive to spring frosts during bud break and flowering; events in Türkiye and the US have caused yield losses of 30–50% in affected regions, tightening fresh and processing supply.
• Raisins and sultanas – Derived from wine and table grapes, they are indirectly exposed when large vineyard areas are damaged. In 2025, some Manisa growers expected dried grape output to halve after frost, but the latest localized damage reports are minor and not yet reflected in export-grade raisin prices.
• Stone fruit (apricots, peaches, cherries, nectarines) – Among the first to bloom, these crops routinely suffer the heaviest frost losses, as seen in Malatya apricots and US Southeast peach orchards after early-spring freezes.
• Apples and pears – Later bloomers but still at risk in abnormal cold snaps; events in New York and New England have wiped out 50–100% of crops locally, causing regional supply tightness and insurance claims.
• Tree nuts (almonds, hazelnuts, walnuts) – Frost at or just after bloom can sharply reduce set; Turkish hazelnut losses of around 30% in 2014 contributed to a tripling of global prices, highlighting the upside price risk in concentrated origins.

🌎 Regional Trade Implications

When frost sharply reduces output in a major origin, importers typically pivot towards alternative suppliers, reshaping trade flows. In years of heavy Turkish stone-fruit or hazelnut damage, buyers have increased sourcing from the EU, the US and Central Asia; similarly, any significant Turkish raisin shortfall tends to shift incremental demand towards the US (California), Iran and India, subject to sanctions and phytosanitary constraints.

So far, the combination of only localized recent frost damage in western Türkiye and comfortable stock levels in other raisin origins has prevented a major shift in dried fruit trade patterns. Indian raisin FOB prices in New Delhi have eased marginally in March, suggesting competitive pressure rather than shortage. At the same time, repeated frost episodes in US and European orchards are driving greater investment in frost protection and insurance, costs that will ultimately be embedded in farmgate and long-term contract prices.

🧭 Market Outlook

In the short term, markets most exposed to frost-related volatility remain fresh cherries, early peaches, apricots and regionally concentrated nuts such as Turkish hazelnuts. For these commodities, even modest frost events can trigger rapid intra-seasonal price spikes, particularly when they coincide with low inventories or strong demand. Raisins and sultanas, by contrast, are currently trading in a relatively narrow range, underpinned by diversified origins and only minor, localized damage in recent Turkish vineyards.

For traders and industrial users, the key variables to monitor are updated crop assessments from frost-affected regions, changes in official production estimates, insurance claim volumes and any sign of export restriction discussions in major origins. Given the structural nature of frost risk in a warming climate—where earlier blooming often meets residual cold snaps—portfolio diversification across origins and flexible specification management will remain important tools for mitigating supply and price shocks.

CMB Market Insight

Early and late-season frosts have become a recurring, high-impact risk factor for orchards and vineyards in otherwise temperate regions, periodically erasing significant volumes of fresh fruit and tightening supplies in sensitive commodities. Historical experience from Türkiye, North America and Europe shows that where damage is extensive and concentrated—particularly in hazelnuts, stone fruit and some grape crops—price reactions can be sharp and immediate.

Current market evidence, however, suggests that recent localized frost in parts of Manisa has not yet altered the broader supply–demand balance for export-grade raisins. With Turkish and Indian raisin quotations largely stable and no major logistical bottlenecks reported, users of dried grapes and related ingredients can maintain a neutral near-term stance while continuing to hedge exposure in more frost-sensitive fresh fruit and nut categories. Strategic diversification of origins and proactive contract management remain the most effective responses to an increasingly volatile frost risk environment.