Egypt’s Soybean Demand Surges as Crushing and Feed Sectors Accelerate

Egypt is set to cement its role as the leading soybean importer in MENA, with rapidly rising crushing and feed demand meeting a generally well-supplied global market and slightly softer CBOT prices. For Egyptian buyers, this creates an environment of firm but manageable import needs, with logistics, FX and origin spreads (US vs Black Sea vs South America) becoming key pricing levers.

Driven by structural growth in poultry, dairy and aquaculture, Egypt’s soybean complex is moving into a phase of higher import volumes and increased local value-add through crushing and oil exports. With domestic production stagnating and no import duties on beans, crushers rely almost entirely on seaborne supplies, led by the US. Recent CBOT futures have eased, while FOB offers from the US, India, Ukraine and China show modest week‑on‑week gains, suggesting basis and freight will be decisive for landed cost optimisation in Alexandria and Damietta.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

Global benchmark soybean futures on CBOT have traded slightly softer over the last sessions, with open interest easing but still high, pointing to active but less aggressively long speculative positioning. Against this backdrop, physical FOB offers in key origins (values per kg in EUR) show a mildly firmer trend since early March, especially for higher-quality and specialty beans.

Origin	Type	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Change (EUR/kg)
US	No. 2	Washington D.C., FOB	0.59	+0.02
India	sortex clean	New Delhi, FOB	0.99	+0.02
Ukraine	standard	Odesa, FOB	0.35	+0.01
China	yellow	Beijing, FOB	0.68	0.00

The latest indications underline a still pronounced price hierarchy between premium US/Indian beans and cheaper Black Sea origins, an important factor for Egyptian crushers balancing protein quality against cost. With no import duties on soybeans in Egypt, these global price relationships flow directly into domestic crushing margins and local soymeal/soyoil pricing.

🌍 Supply & Demand: Egypt in a Global Context

Egyptian soybean fundamentals point to robust and structurally rising demand. For marketing year (MY) 2026/27, national soybean imports are forecast at 5.2 million tonnes, up 4 % year-on-year, driven primarily by higher feed demand from poultry, dairy and aquaculture segments. Domestic production is expected to remain flat at about 85 thousand tonnes, covering less than 2 % of total needs and underscoring the country’s import dependence.

Total soybean consumption in 2026/27 is seen at 5.2 million tonnes, almost entirely channelled into crushing. Processing volumes are projected to rise to 5.2 million tonnes, from 5.0 million in 2025/26 and 4.65 million in 2024/25, reflecting both expanded installed capacity (around 10 million tonnes) and much higher utilisation, which has recently exceeded 80 % on improved FX availability and easier raw bean imports.

On the protein side, Egypt’s soymeal production is forecast at 4.11 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 4 % year-on-year, while domestic soymeal consumption is projected at 4.2 million tonnes (+5 %). Rising demand from integrated poultry groups, expanding dairy operations and intensifying aquaculture – which already produces about 1.6 million tonnes of fish annually – is the main driver. Soymeal imports are expected to stabilise near 100 thousand tonnes as more of the protein requirement is covered through domestic crushing of imported beans.

📊 Oils, Policy & Trade Flows

The surge in crushing directly feeds into Egypt’s vegetable oil balance. Soybean oil production is projected to reach 950 thousand tonnes in 2026/27 (+5.5 % vs. 2025/26), with domestic consumption climbing to 790 thousand tonnes. Increased availability of high-quality soyoil allows for larger blending shares in subsidised mixed oils alongside sunflower oil, improving affordability for consumers while supporting the government’s large food subsidy programme.

Egypt maintains a liberal import regime on soybeans and key competing oils: no import tariffs are levied on soybeans, sunflower seed or crude palm oil, while oilseed meals face a modest 5 % duty and crude/ refined soy and sunflower oil only 2 %. This tariff structure strongly favours importing raw beans for local crushing and exporting some surplus oil. Soybean oil imports are expected to remain low at around 50 thousand tonnes in 2026/27, while exports could rise to 200 thousand tonnes on competitive pricing into regional markets such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Algeria.

End-stocks for soybeans are projected to increase to about 532 thousand tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting larger imports and the need for supply security in a context of FX volatility and geopolitical risk. For soymeal and soybean oil, ending stocks are projected around 360 thousand tonnes and 144 thousand tonnes respectively, providing a reasonable buffer against short-term disruptions without significantly tightening the domestic market.

🌦️ Weather & External Drivers

While Egypt itself does not significantly produce soybeans, import costs are sensitive to weather and yield developments in key exporters, notably the US, Brazil, Argentina and the Black Sea. Recent international reports highlight renewed dryness and heat stress across much of Argentina’s corn and soybean belt, particularly affecting later-planted soybeans, with rainfall deficits persisting in parts of Buenos Aires and Santa Fe provinces.

In the US, the major mid-March blizzard impacted parts of the Upper Midwest, but for now the disturbance is seen primarily as a temporary logistical and fieldwork issue rather than a structural threat to the upcoming soybean crop. Overall, global soybean supply remains comfortable after very large South American harvests in the prior season, but any further weather setbacks in Argentina could tighten the meal balance and lend support to CBOT and FOB values later in the year – a risk Egyptian buyers should monitor closely.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

From an Egyptian perspective, the medium-term picture combines structurally rising import requirements with a currently benign global supply environment and moderate price levels. Expanding domestic crushing capacity and higher utilisation strengthen Egypt’s role as a regional hub for soymeal and soyoil, but also heighten exposure to disruptions in FX availability and global freight/insurance conditions.

• For crushers and feed mills in Egypt: Consider layering purchases of US and Black Sea origin beans over the next 3–6 months to secure volumes for the projected 5.2 MMT crush in 2026/27, taking advantage of currently moderate CBOT levels and still-attractive Ukrainian FOB spreads, while hedging part of the volume on futures to guard against potential weather-driven rallies.
• For exporters to Egypt (especially US shippers): The forecast 4 % increase in imports and Egypt’s strong preference for consistent, high-protein US soybeans suggest maintaining aggressive origin-differential offers into Egyptian ports, especially for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 shipment windows, when local feed demand seasonally strengthens.
• For regional buyers (MENA feed users): Monitor Egyptian soymeal and soyoil export offers as additional regional supply; the expected growth in Egypt’s exports (around 200 TMT of soyoil) could provide competitive alternatives to direct South American or Black Sea purchases, particularly when freight or insurance premia spike.

📍 3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• US No. 2 soybeans, FOB Gulf/Washington D.C.: Sideways to slightly firm near 0.58–0.61 EUR/kg, tracking CBOT and weather headlines from South America.
• Black Sea (Ukraine) soybeans, FOB Odesa: Slightly firmer bias in the 0.34–0.37 EUR/kg range, with risk premia tied to regional logistics and security costs.
• India & China soybeans, FOB main ports: Stable to marginally higher; premiums vs US/Black Sea likely to persist given quality and niche demand, implying limited downside in the very short term.