Raisin Prices Edge Mixed as India Firms and Turkey Holds Benchmarks Steady

Raisin prices are mostly stable to slightly firmer across key origins, with Indian grades inching up while Turkish and Chilean export benchmarks remain broadly steady in euro terms. Competitive Chinese offers into Europe continue to cap the upside, keeping the near-term outlook range‑bound. The global raisin market is entering a seasonally quieter demand phase, yet export flows from Turkey and India remain solid enough to prevent any meaningful price correction. Recent trade commentary highlights firm but not aggressively rising Turkish sultana benchmarks, while Chinese exporters are actively courting European buyers with competitive prices, especially for standard sultanas. Weather conditions in the main producing regions are currently benign, with no fresh reports of significant crop damage over the last few days. Against this backdrop, price moves over the coming week are expected to stay modest, driven mainly by currency shifts and short‑term restocking rather than fundamentals.

Prices & Spreads (All in EUR)

Approximate FX assumption for this report: 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR, 1 INR ≈ 0.011 EUR.

*Note: EUR/kg figures are indicative, converted from USD/INR‑based offers using approximate FX and rounded for market commentary only.

Supply & Demand Snapshot

India (IN)

Indian raisin supply is ample following a solid 2025/26 grape season, with no major weather issues reported in Maharashtra and adjoining grape belts so far in May. Local grape mandi prices in Maharashtra have eased from peak levels, suggesting raw material availability is not a constraint for raisin processors. Export enquiries—especially for golden and brown grades—remain active, helped by a relatively competitive rupee and robust overall Indian export momentum this fiscal year.

Turkey (TR)

Turkey continues to anchor the global sultana market. Recent trade updates from Turkish exporters indicate that spot sultana/seedless raisin prices in Manisa and Malatya are stable week‑on‑week, with buyers accepting current levels but showing little appetite to chase the market higher. Export volumes remain strong, supporting firm benchmarks but also signalling that stocks are adequate for current demand.

China (CN)

Chinese raisins, largely sourced from Xinjiang, are regaining share in Europe as buyers look for cost‑effective alternatives to Turkish and Indian offers. Recent market commentary stresses that Chinese sultanas are currently recommended into Europe on price grounds, especially for standard quality where small differentials are decisive. Weather data for key Xinjiang locations in early May show typical seasonal conditions without extreme heat or rain events, implying a normal drying outlook for the new crop.

Chile (CL) & Afghanistan (AF)

Chile’s 2026 season is progressing under the shadow of earlier‑year wildfires in central and southern regions, but these have had limited direct impact on the main raisin‑grape belts. Export flows of flame jumbos into Europe are steady, with only marginal price adjustments, signalling a balanced position. Afghanistan’s raisin exports, mainly lower‑grade/feed types, continue to face logistical and financing constraints; EU‑delivered prices have softened slightly as demand is subdued and buyers are well covered.

Weather Check (Key Regions)

• India (Maharashtra/North Karnataka): Early May weather has been seasonally warm and mostly dry, favourable for remaining drying and storage; no fresh reports of unseasonal rains have emerged in the last few days in major grape belts feeding raisin plants.
• Turkey (Aegean/Manisa & Malatya): Trade sources report normal early‑May conditions with no frost or heavy rain events affecting existing stocks; attention is slowly shifting to vine development but without immediate price impact.
• China (Xinjiang): Historical and near‑real‑time weather data for Xinjiang locations in May show no recent anomalies, supporting expectations of a typical drying season ahead.
• Chile (Central valleys): The earlier wildfire episode in Biobío and Ñuble has eased; recent national weather reporting does not flag new extreme events in main raisin areas, keeping supply risk contained for now.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Firm Turkish benchmarks: Trade reports from early May emphasise that Turkish sultana export prices are holding steady, supported by strong shipments and a concentrated base of high‑quality suppliers.
• Competitive Chinese offers: Chinese raisins are increasingly attractive into the EU on price, especially as temporary tightness earlier in the season in India and Turkey has faded but left benchmarks at relatively elevated levels.
• Stable macro backdrop: Broader commodity indices show softer trends in some agri segments, and no new policy shocks have emerged for raisins specifically in the last few days, limiting volatility spill‑over.
• Currency effects: Ongoing discussions around India’s exchange‑rate competitiveness suggest policymakers are mindful of export support, which indirectly underpins Indian raisin offers in euro terms even if rupee volatility persists.

3‑Day Price Outlook (Regional)

• IN – India (FOB/FCA New Delhi): With raw‑grape supply comfortable and export interest steady, golden, brown and black AA raisins are likely to trade sideways to +0.5% in EUR terms over the next three days, mainly reflecting FX noise rather than fresh fundamentals.
• TR – Turkey (FOB Manisa/Malatya; FCA EU hubs): Spot sultana benchmarks are expected to remain flat, with a modest upward bias of up to +0.5% if late buyers extend cover, but no strong catalyst for a breakout is visible this week.
• CN – China (FCA EU ports): Chinese sultana and RTU‑type raisins should stay stable in EUR terms, maintaining a discount of roughly 5–10% versus comparable Turkish grades; competition is likely to cap any near‑term rally.
• CL – Chile (FCA EU ports): Flame jumbo prices may ease marginally (−0.5% to 0%) as buyers have alternatives in Turkey and China, but no sharp moves are expected given balanced export programs.
• AF – Afghanistan (FCA EU ports, feed‑grade): Weak feed demand suggests a slightly soft tone (−0.5% to 0%) for Afghan feed raisins over the next few days, though thin liquidity can cause occasional micro‑volatility.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Food industry buyers (EU & MENA): Use the current stable window to extend cover modestly in Turkish and Indian standard grades for nearby to Q3 delivery, but avoid over‑committing while Chinese offers remain aggressively priced.
• Importers in Europe: Consider blending strategies—locking some Turkish premium volumes for quality assurance while topping up with Chinese sultanas to optimise average costs in retail and bakery mixes.
• Origin‑side sellers (IN, TR, CN): With fundamentals balanced and little weather risk in the very short term, holding out for significantly higher prices over the next week appears risky; disciplined offer management around current benchmarks is advisable.