Indian Chickpea Prices Firm While Mexican FOB Eases Slightly

Indian chickpea prices are edging higher ex-Delhi, while Mexican FOB values have softened slightly in early May, widening India’s competitiveness on export-sized calibers. Weather is seasonally hot in both origins but non-disruptive for near-term supply, keeping the market primarily price- and policy-driven rather than weather-led. The chickpea market in early May is shaped by steady domestic demand in India, ongoing government support for pulses, and modest softening in Mexican export offers. In India, above-normal temperatures are forecast for many regions in May, but with only isolated storms in the coming days, logistics around Delhi should remain smooth.  Mexico’s main chickpea areas in Sinaloa are experiencing typical hot, dry weather, with no immediate harvest or transport disruptions expected.  Against this backdrop, small price differentials by size and origin are driving short-term trading decisions more than any major fundamental shock.

Prices & Spreads

All prices below are converted to approximate EUR/mt (using 1 USD ≈ 0.90 EUR) for comparability.

Indian ex-Delhi FCA prices for Kabuli chickpeas have firmed by around EUR 15–20/mt over the last week across main calibers. In contrast, Indian FOB offers for the same sizes have slipped by roughly EUR 10/mt, indicating some compression of export margins and active competition for overseas demand.

Mexican FOB prices for large 42–44 chickpeas are currently around 15–20% above equivalent Indian FOB offers, after easing slightly since late April. This keeps India in a relatively strong position for price-sensitive destinations, while Mexico remains a key origin for premium-quality and nearby markets despite the softer tone.

Supply, Demand & Policy Drivers

India’s chickpea balance remains underpinned by solid rabi output and strong policy support for pulses. Recent government decisions to approve record procurement of pulses and oilseeds for the 2025–26 rabi season, including gram (chana), signal an intention to keep farmgate prices supported and ensure adequate supplies for domestic use.  This creates a floor under local markets, limiting downside even when arrivals are seasonally heavy.

On the import side, India continues to position itself as a competitive supplier of Kabuli chickpeas to markets such as Turkey and the Middle East, where demand for desi and Kabuli types remains steady.  Mexican exporters, mainly from Sinaloa and other northwestern states, are also active, but slightly lower FOB indications suggest some pressure from global competition and currency dynamics rather than any acute supply issue.

Weather Outlook (IN & MX)

India (New Delhi / Northern plains): IMD short-range bulletins point to a gradual rise in maximum temperatures over northwest India up to around 9–10 May, followed by isolated to scattered thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds over 10–13 May.  For chickpeas, which are largely post-harvest by now, this pattern has limited impact on production and only minor potential for short-lived logistical delays.

Mexico (Sinaloa & Northwest): Ten-day forecasts for coastal locations such as Mazatlán and inland hubs like Culiacán show hot, mostly dry conditions with maximum temperatures near the mid-30s °C and negligible rainfall in the next few days.  These typical pre-rainy-season conditions support normal storage and port operations, implying no immediate weather-related constraint on Mexican chickpea exports.

Fundamentals & Market Tone

Fundamentally, global chickpea availability appears comfortable, with India reporting robust gram output for the 2025–26 season and policy momentum towards pulse self-reliance.  Domestic Indian prices are therefore balancing between MSP-backed support and export competitiveness. Mexican supplies, while not currently stressed, face headwinds from relatively higher FOB values compared with Indian offers.

Market tone in early May is best described as cautiously firm in India and mildly weak in Mexico. Traders report steady buying interest from traditional importers, but limited willingness to chase prices higher given comfortable coverage and the absence of any new weather shock in key origins.

Short-Term Trading Outlook

• Importers in MENA and South Asia: India looks more cost-competitive than Mexico for standard 42–44 and 44–46 calibers; consider front-loading nearby purchases from Indian FOB while the slight dip in offers persists.
• Indian domestic buyers: With FCA New Delhi values edging up and strong policy support in the background, near-term downside appears limited; staggered buying on modest dips is preferable to waiting for a large correction.
• Mexican exporters: Marginally softer FOB suggests room for tactical discounts on larger volume lots to defend market share against Indian origin, especially where quality differentials are narrow.

3-Day Directional View (Prices in EUR)

• India – New Delhi FCA (42–48 calibers): Bias slightly firmer to stable over the next 3 days, with support from domestic demand and policy floors; any gains are likely modest (within ~5 EUR/mt).
• India – New Delhi FOB (export sizes): After the recent small softening, tone is stable; limited further downside expected unless global demand weakens abruptly.
• Mexico – FOB (42–44, 75–80): Tone remains slightly weak; mild additional easing is possible as sellers stay flexible to meet competitive offers from India.