Raisin Prices Hold Firm as Freight Costs Rise and Xinjiang Weather Turns Wet

Raisin prices are largely steady to mildly firmer this week, with Chinese sultanas stable and Indian grades edging higher in EUR terms, while logistics costs are rising on Asia–Europe routes. Short‑term, tighter container capacity and wet weather in Xinjiang support a slightly bullish bias for high‑quality sultanas, though ample global supply caps any sharp rally. The global raisin market enters mid‑May with balanced but fragile fundamentals. China, Türkiye and India together provide abundant 2025/26 supply, yet regional tightness in premium grades and elevated shipping costs are quietly underpinning delivered prices in Europe and Asia. Container freight rates on Asia–Europe legs have moved higher again since early May, eroding margins for importers and discouraging aggressive discounting. At the same time, a wetter spell in Xinjiang over the next few days follows an overall favourable season, limiting near‑term downside for forward Chinese sultanas. Trading remains hand‑to‑mouth, but buyers with uncovered summer demand face a mildly rising cost base.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR using ~1.00 EUR = 1.08 USD where relevant (approximate).

In CN‑origin product, Hamburg FCA sultanas around EUR 2.00/kg have traded sideways over the last two weeks, while Dutch warehouse values for CN sultanas have eased marginally, widening the discount to TR material. Premium TR sultanas in Malatya and EU warehouses continue to command a noticeable premium at roughly EUR 2.25–2.65/kg depending on grade and organic status, supported by limited high‑quality stocks from earlier frost‑hit crops.

Indian raisin prices in New Delhi have firmed modestly across golden, brown and black AA grades, reflecting steady export demand and currency effects rather than any acute shortage. China‑bound buying interest from snack and bakery sectors remains selective, but higher freight and insurance costs on some lanes are beginning to filter into CN import parity, especially for TR and IN origins. Recent container indices show Asia–Europe spot rates up roughly 15–20% year‑on‑year and rebounding again in May.

Supply & Demand

Fundamentally, the world raisin balance for 2025/26 remains comfortable. Latest industry projections point to sizeable production in China (around 190,000 t), Türkiye (about 165,000 t) and India (about 160,000 t), offsetting lower crops in Iran and some other traditional exporters. Ending stocks are expected to decline slightly but stay adequate, capping upside price risk for bulk‑standard qualities.

Demand in Europe and East Asia is stable but not booming, with food manufacturers still cautious on forward coverage. In China, retail dried fruit consumption is gradually recovering alongside improving macro trade data, although value rather than volume growth dominates as consumers remain price sensitive. This environment favours competitively priced CN and Indian raisins for industrial uses, while TR and Chilean jumbos are largely confined to premium retail channels.

Logistics & Costs

Ocean freight is the main incremental bullish driver. The Freightos Baltic Index shows Asia–Europe spot rates rising 18% week‑on‑week to about USD 3,850/TEU as of 10 May, the highest level so far in 2026. Other assessments confirm a recent rebound in container spot rates after several weeks of softness, with Asia–Europe increases more moderate than Transpacific but still clearly higher than in late 2025.

For raisin flows into Europe and China, these freight hikes lift landed costs by several percentage points, particularly on lower‑value feed and industrial grades where freight is a larger share of the CIF price. Some shippers report carriers re‑tightening capacity, especially from North China and East Mediterranean ports, and applying peak‑season and fuel‑related surcharges into June. This is discouraging exporters from granting deeper discounts despite adequate raw material availability.

Weather & Crop Outlook (China‑focused)

Short‑term weather in key Chinese grape‑growing regions is turning wetter. Forecasts for northern Xinjiang over the next three days indicate repeated rainfall events, with localised heavy rain risks in parts of the region. While the main drying season lies later in the year, prolonged moisture at this stage can affect vineyard operations and disease pressure, prompting some growers and traders to adopt a more cautious stance on forward sales.

Elsewhere in inland China, conditions remain seasonally mild, with no immediate threat to the developing 2026/27 grape crop. Taking the season so far together with industry supply projections, the Chinese raisin crop still looks set to be solid, but the shift to a wetter pattern this week adds a small weather premium to forward CN sultanas compared with early May.

Short‑Term Price Outlook (3 days, CN‑focused)

• CN sultanas, type 9 RTU, FCA Hamburg (EUR/kg): Sideways to slightly firmer at ~2.00–2.05 as sellers resist discounts amid higher freight and wetter Xinjiang outlook.
• CN sultanas, EU warehouse, FCA Dordrecht (EUR/kg): Mildly supportive bias from ~1.94 toward 1.95–1.98 as buying interest picks up for summer shipments.
• TR and IN raisins to CN (CIF, implied EUR/kg): Upward cost pressure of 1–2% driven mainly by freight surcharges; FOB origin prices broadly steady.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For importers in CN and EU: Consider covering near‑term (May–June) needs for CN and IN standard sultanas now, as freight‑driven cost increases are more likely than raw‑material‑driven declines over the next weeks.
• For buyers of premium TR grades: Continue hand‑to‑mouth purchasing; high‑quality TR sultanas remain tight but global supply is adequate, limiting explosive upside unless new weather issues emerge.
• For exporters in CN: Maintain offer levels; stronger freight and slightly wetter Xinjiang weather justify holding current EUR prices, with discounts reserved for full‑container commitments or prompt shipment.