Turkish Raisins Steady as New Season Prep and Zero-Residue Focus Gain Pace

Export-oriented demand for Turkish raisins has improved slightly while prices remain broadly stable, supported by farmers’ expectations of higher official intervention levels in the new season. With rains easing, vineyard work has accelerated, including leaf collection and preparations to meet stricter zero-residue standards, which could tighten effective export supply later in the season. Weekly exports as of 9 May reached around 3,100 tonnes, marginally above last year, suggesting steady underlying demand. At the same time, reference sales by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) at 100 TL for grade 8 grapes underpin farmer sentiment that the new-season purchase price will not fall below 120 TL, increasing the incentive to hold back product rather than sell aggressively at current levels.

Prices & Export Activity

Spot prices for Turkish sultana raisins are largely unchanged in EUR terms, with only modest week-on-week adjustments. In Malatya, recent offers show:

These levels reflect a market that is well supplied in the short term, yet underpinned by growers’ willingness to hold stocks in anticipation of better new-crop prices. Weekly exports of around 3,100 tonnes, up roughly 125 tonnes versus last year, confirm that demand is resilient enough to absorb this price plateau without requiring discounts.

Supply, Vineyards & Zero-Residue Push

With rainfall easing, growers are accelerating vineyard operations. Leaf collection has become a key activity: it provides immediate cash flow and is agronomically important to improve vineyard productivity. This dual role supports farm incomes during the pre-harvest period and reduces short-term pressure to liquidate raisin stocks, adding a mild supportive factor to prices.

A further structural driver is the push to produce zero-residue raisins. The recent symposium organized by Tariş underscores increasing attention from cooperatives and exporters to residue-free production protocols. In the medium term, stricter residue targets could reduce effective exportable supply from non-compliant growers and favour professionally managed vineyards, potentially supporting premiums for certified lots, especially in sensitive markets such as the EU.

Fundamentals & Farmer Price Expectations

On the fundamental side, the key signal is the Turkish Grain Board’s sale of grade 8 grapes at 100 TL. Many producers interpret this as a floor, expecting that the official purchase price for the upcoming season will not be set below 120 TL. This expectation shapes current marketing behaviour: rather than selling aggressively into a sideways market, some growers are choosing to hold product or even keep more grapes for the coming season.

This holding strategy effectively tightens free-on-spot availability despite adequate overall stocks, maintaining a relatively firm tone in international offer levels when converted into EUR. The recent, slightly higher export figures suggest buyers are willing to accept this price structure, especially as competing origins are not aggressively undercutting Turkish offers in the higher-quality segment.

Weather & Short-Term Outlook

In the main Turkish sultana regions, the next three days are forecast to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy, with daytime highs around 22–28°C and only isolated thunderstorms. These conditions are broadly supportive for ongoing vineyard work and early-season growth, with no immediate weather-related threat to the 2026 crop.

Given stable weather, the main near-term uncertainties remain policy and currency developments rather than agronomic risk. As long as farmer expectations of a higher TMO purchase price persist, downside in EUR-denominated export prices appears limited, barring a sharp weakening of local demand or a stronger euro.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Importers / Industrial users: Use current price softness in Turkish type 8–10 sultanas (around 2.10–2.30 EUR/kg FOB) to cover nearby needs, but avoid over-hedging far-forward until greater clarity on new-crop policies and residue requirements.
• Packers & retailers: Consider gradually increasing coverage in zero-residue and high-spec lots, as the focus on residue-free production may lead to tighter availability and higher premiums later in the season.
• Producers & cooperatives: With TMO sales signalling growers’ expectations of at least 120 TL in the new season, a cautious selling strategy on remaining old-crop stocks appears justified, especially for higher grades.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• TR Malatya FOB sultanas type 8–10: Sideways to slightly firm, around 2.10–2.30 EUR/kg.
• TR CIF sultanas RTU (EU ports): Stable near 2.10–2.20 EUR/kg, with limited discount pressure.
• Competing origins (EU warehouses, mixed types): Broadly stable; minor adjustments driven by logistics and quality differentials rather than fundamentals.