Indian Chickpeas Stay Firm as Mexican FOB Levels Stabilise

Indian and Mexican chickpea prices are broadly steady with a mild firming bias in India, supported by tight domestic supplies and costly import alternatives, while Mexican FOB offers are stable after earlier softening. Weather remains hot but non-disruptive for logistics in both origins in the very short term, but India’s downgraded monsoon forecast injects upside risk for the 2026/27 season. Chickpea pricing into early June is dominated by India’s domestic squeeze and policy backdrop rather than immediate weather shocks. Retail and mandi data show Kabuli Chana remaining elevated across Indian markets, while export‑oriented Mexican kabuli continues to trade at a modest discount progression versus early May peaks, preserving competitiveness into Mediterranean, Middle East and Asian demand hubs. Recent forecasts of a below‑normal Indian monsoon and potential El Niño development have sharpened attention on forward supply and food‑inflation risks, encouraging millers and importers to secure at least partial Q3 cover. Near‑term, prices in both origins are likely to trade sideways to slightly firmer in EUR terms, helped by currency weakness and limited spare global supply.

Prices & Differentials (converted to EUR)

Using an indicative FX assumption of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR and 1 MXN ≈ 0.05 EUR, current spot indications translate approximately as follows:

Domestic wholesale indicators echo the firmness in India: all‑India Kabuli Chana mandi prices are around INR 6,750/quintal (≈ 0.74 EUR/kg) with recent daily gains of about INR 600/quintal in some markets, underlining a bullish undertone at the farm and trader level.

Supply, Policy & Demand Drivers

India (IN)

• Tight domestic balance: Recent analysis highlights that India’s chickpea market is supported by tightening local supplies, high landed costs for Australian imports and a weak rupee, keeping downside limited and encouraging price resilience into the monsoon period.
• Import constraints: A 30% basic customs duty (≈30.9% total) on kabuli chickpea imports, combined with similar protection on substitute yellow peas, curbs cheaper inflows and supports internal values in EUR terms.
• Recent price spike: Local kabuli prices saw a sharp one‑day rally of ~16% on 24 May in some mandis, signalling how quickly the market reacts to perceived supply tightness and speculative positioning.
• Demand: Steady food and processing demand persists, with no major demand destruction evident despite elevated prices, partly due to limited substitutes in household consumption and government emphasis on pulses in nutrition schemes.

Mexico (MX)

• Stable exportable surplus: Earlier in May, Mexican FOB offers eased slightly as harvest pressure passed and competition for Mediterranean and Middle Eastern buyers intensified, but recent days show broadly stable values, with 42‑44 calibre still trading at a premium to Indian product.
• Weather & logistics: Key chickpea‑growing areas such as Sinaloa continue to experience seasonally hot and dry conditions without major reported transport or port disruptions, keeping near‑term supply flows steady.
• Demand pull: Mexican kabuli remains sought after in size‑sensitive Mediterranean and EU markets; current differentials vs Indian kabuli leave room for some switching, but overall global supply remains tight enough to prevent aggressive discounting.

Weather & Monsoon Risk (IN & MX)

India – New Delhi and Monsoon Outlook

• Short‑term weather (New Delhi): Forecasts for the next three days in Delhi point to very hot conditions, with maximum temperatures around the high‑30s to ~40°C, limited rainfall and no major weather disruptions to transport.
• Monsoon 2026 downgraded: The India Meteorological Department has cut its southwest monsoon forecast to about 90% of the Long Period Average, signalling a ‘below normal’ season and warning that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during June–July.
• Price implication: While current chickpeas in trade are from the latest harvest, expectations of below‑normal rainfall raise forward‑looking concerns about soil moisture, sowing, and 2026/27 pulse output, underpinning a risk‑premium in pulses including kabuli.

Mexico – Mexico City Reference

• Short‑term weather: Mexico City and surrounding central regions face typical late‑May/early‑June conditions—warm to hot daytime temperatures with scattered convective showers; no widespread reports of weather‑related logistics issues for chickpea exports from Pacific ports.
• Crop impact: Main kabuli areas (e.g., Sinaloa) are largely past critical harvest windows; current hot, dry patterns are viewed as broadly neutral to slightly supportive for post‑harvest handling and quality.

Market Tone & Fundamentals

• India remains the price setter: With large structural demand and constrained imports, India’s kabuli price trend effectively benchmarks the global market. Firm mandi and FOB values, plus renewed monsoon concerns, point to a mildly bullish tone entering June.
• Limited global slack: Mexican FOB levels are no longer softening, and alternative origins (e.g., Australia) are expensive in landed terms for Indian buyers, limiting downside for global prices in EUR.
• Macro factors: A record‑weak rupee versus major currencies increases local currency support prices needed to clear export and import parity, while potential El Niño‑linked food inflation risk in India could further elevate policy sensitivity around pulses.

Short‑Term Price Outlook (3‑Day, Directional)

India – New Delhi FOB (all kabuli sizes)

• Fundamentals: Tight local balance, strong mandi prices and monsoon uncertainty support a firm to slightly firmer bias. No immediate weather or logistics shocks are visible around Delhi in the coming three days.
• Directional call (next 3 days): Sideways to mildly higher in EUR terms (≈ +0% to +2%), with any intra‑day dips likely to attract miller and importer buying.

Mexico – Mexico City FOB

• Fundamentals: Export pipelines remain well supplied but not burdensome; earlier softening has largely played out, with current levels competitive yet underpinned by limited surplus and stable logistics.
• Directional call (next 3 days): Mostly sideways in EUR terms (≈ −1% to +1%), with only minor adjustments driven by FX or short‑term export enquiry shifts.

Trading Recommendations

• For Indian buyers (millers, food industry): Consider covering 25–40% of Q3 kabuli needs on any small pullbacks, especially mid‑grades (46‑48, 44‑46) where liquidity is better, as import alternatives remain expensive and monsoon risk is skewed to the upside.
• For international importers (EU, MENA): Diversify between Indian and Mexican origins to balance quality and price; use current stability in Mexican FOB as an opportunity to lock in part of Q3 shipments before India’s monsoon path becomes clearer.
• For producers/exporters in India & Mexico: Maintain measured selling—avoid aggressive forward discounting. With below‑normal monsoon expectations and tight global pulses supply, holding some optionality for late‑Q3 could pay off if prices trend higher.