Flat Raisin Prices, Firm Fundamentals: CN-Origin Holds Its Ground in Europe

Raisin prices are broadly stable across origins, with CN and TR sultanas holding firm and Indian grades flat after minor earlier adjustments. No fresh weather or crop shocks have emerged in key raisin regions over the past few days, keeping the market well supplied but price-supportive due to steady demand in Europe.

European buyers continue to rely heavily on imports of dried grapes, with Germany and the Netherlands central as entry hubs for CN, TR and IN product. Recent trade data confirm the EU’s structural dependence on third-country dried grape supply, led by Turkey and other developing origins, which underpins a floor under export prices even in the absence of new bullish news.

📈 Prices & Spreads (all approx. EUR/kg)

Origin	Location / Term	Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	1–2 Week Trend
China (CN)	Hamburg, FCA	Sultanas, type 9, RTU STD	≈ 2.21	Flat vs. 2.21 two weeks ago (minor intra-week noise)
China (CN)	Dordrecht, FCA	Sultanas no. 9, grade AA	≈ 2.18	Stable over March
Turkey (TR)	Malatya, FOB	Sultanas type 9, grade A	≈ 2.35	Slightly firmer vs. mid-March dip
Turkey (TR)	Malatya, FOB	Sultanas type 10, grade A	≈ 2.65	Firm after earlier volatility
India (IN)	New Delhi, FOB	Golden, grade AA	≈ 2.31	Sideways, small earlier correction
India (IN)	New Delhi, FOB	Brown / Black, grade AA	≈ 1.86 / 1.80	Broadly flat
Chile (CL)	Dordrecht, FCA	Flame jumbo	≈ 2.48	Stable
Africa (AF)	Dordrecht, FCA	Feed, brown	≈ 1.93	Flat / slightly easier

Note: All values converted and rounded to EUR/kg for comparability; no meaningful week‑on‑week moves have been recorded in the last three trading days.

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

EU market fundamentals remain steady. The EU is structurally short in dried grapes and relies on imports, with Turkey, South Africa, the US and other developing origins as leading suppliers. Germany and the Netherlands act as key distribution hubs feeding bakery and retail demand across Europe.

No fresh harvest or policy shocks have been reported in the last three days for major raisin origins. Recent global dried grape trade analysis still portrays a well-supplied market, with international trade in dried grapes sizable and diversified by origin, limiting the risk of sudden supply squeezes in the very short term.

In China, Xinjiang continues to be highlighted as the core domestic production base for grapes and raisins, accounting for the vast majority of national output. Recent regional news has focused on tourism and broader economic activity rather than agriculture, with no indication of weather-driven stress on vineyards over the past few days.

⛅ Weather & Risk Factors (Focus: CN/Xinjiang)

Public updates over the past three days on Xinjiang have centred on the Spring Tourism Expo and related infrastructure, not on adverse weather events. General climate references for Xinjiang confirm a continental, dry environment but offer no sign of acute anomalies this week that would immediately alter the 2026 raisin supply outlook.

Elsewhere, there have been no new, dated alerts about frost, hail or excessive rainfall in major raisin belts of Turkey or India within the last three days. Available official and trade‑related information remains focused on macroeconomic indicators (such as Turkish CPI) rather than crop damage, indirectly suggesting that the current crop expectations stand.

📊 Fundamentals & Regulatory Backdrop

The EU’s dried grape market structure remains supportive for medium‑term demand. Dried grapes are among the most important dried fruits in Europe, with the EU responsible for roughly half of global dried grape imports and heavily dependent on developing‑country suppliers, led by Turkey. This entrenched import dependence underpins stable baseline demand for CN, TR and IN raisins into Northern Europe.

At the same time, EU authorities are tightening residue and food safety controls for a broad range of fruit and vegetable imports. While recent actions have targeted other commodities such as Vietnamese dragon fruit and chilies, they are part of a wider move towards stricter pesticide residue controls at EU borders that may gradually raise compliance costs for all exporters, including raisin shippers.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook & Trading Ideas

3–5 Day Directional View

• CN origin (FCA DE/NL): Sideways. With no new supply shocks or demand spikes from EU buyers, CN sultana values around EUR 2.2/kg are expected to hold within a very narrow band.
• TR origin (FOB/CIF TR): Slight firm bias. Turkish sultanas remain the benchmark supplier for Europe; stable macro and steady bakery demand keep prices mildly supported but not rallying.
• IN origin (FOB IN): Flat. Indian golden and brown/black grades around EUR 1.8–2.3/kg show little impetus to move in the immediate term amid balanced export interest.

Trading Recommendations (Very Short-Term)

• EU buyers (packers, bakery): Use current stability to cover near‑term Q2 needs in CN and TR sultanas at today’s levels; avoid over‑committing far forward until clearer signals emerge from upcoming weather and crop updates.
• Exporters in CN/TR/IN: Maintain offer discipline at current indications; only concede minor discounts for prompt, large‑volume deals given the absence of bearish fundamental news.
• Feed and industrial users: Consider incremental purchases of AF feed‑grade raisins while the discount to food grades remains wide and prices are flat.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Hamburg (CN sultanas, FCA): ≈ EUR 2.20–2.25/kg, expected stable.
• Dordrecht (CN, TR, CL mixes, FCA): CN ≈ 2.15–2.20, TR ≈ 2.80–2.90, CL ≈ 2.45–2.50/kg, all seen range‑bound.
• Malatya (TR, FOB): Conventional sultanas ≈ EUR 2.2–2.7/kg, with a slightly firmer tone on quality lots.
• New Delhi (IN, FOB): ≈ EUR 1.8–2.3/kg across grades, bias neutral.