Chickpeas steady as India heatwave meets firm MSP and softening Mexican offers

Indian and Mexican chickpea export prices are broadly steady, with India holding a premium over Mexico on larger calibres. Record government procurement and a severe heatwave in key North Indian growing and trading centres are supporting values, while Mexican offers have eased slightly over May, improving competitiveness but not triggering aggressive selling. India’s chickpea complex is entering the pre-monsoon heatwave phase, but the crop is largely in storage, limiting direct weather risk. The bigger drivers in the coming days are government MSP-backed procurement, local mandi demand and export interest from Mediterranean and Middle Eastern buyers. In Mexico, stable weather and ample carryout support a sideways price pattern. With no major new policy shocks or crop scares in the past few days, the market looks range-bound into early next week.

Prices & Spreads

Using an indicative rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR, recent FOB/FCA indications convert to the following approximate levels:

Indian domestic Kabuli spot prices in Gujarat mandis such as Junagadh and Porbandar are quoted around ₹5,075–5,500 per quintal (≈ EUR 565–610/t), broadly stable over the past week, reflecting a market that has eased from March–April highs but is now consolidating.

Supply, Demand & Policy Drivers

India remains the key fundamental anchor for chickpeas. Government agencies have approved record procurement volumes for pulses in the 2025–26 rabi marketing season to support farmer incomes, which effectively puts a floor under farmgate prices and reduces distress selling pressure. This underpins Kabuli values, even as some consumer demand has turned price-sensitive after earlier rallies.

On the demand side, domestic dal mill buying has been described as softer than in March, but downside is limited by active MSP-backed purchases and traders’ reluctance to sell below support levels. Imports into India are modest; recent large pulse cargoes skew more toward yellow peas, meaning incremental bearish pressure on chickpeas is contained. In Mexico, exportable supplies remain comfortable after successive good crops, and buyers are using Mexican origins opportunistically when spreads versus India widen, particularly in small-calibre Kabuli segments.

Weather Watch: IN & MX

In India, the IMD reports an ongoing heatwave to severe heatwave across the plains of northwest and central India, including Delhi and adjoining pulse-trading regions, expected to persist for at least the next 6–7 days. This raises storage and logistics costs (cooling, quality maintenance) and can marginally tighten near-term physical availability as some stockists wait out extreme conditions rather than move cargo.

The southwest monsoon is forecast to advance to Kerala around 26 May, marking the seasonal transition toward more humid conditions. For chickpeas, which were harvested earlier in the rabi season, current weather is more a cost-and-logistics issue than a yield risk, but any delay in monsoon progress into central and northern India in June could influence sowing decisions for competing kharif pulses and oilseeds. In Mexico, no major weather disruptions have been reported in the past few days, and conditions appear seasonally normal for stored chickpea stocks.

Market Sentiment & Fundamentals

Overall sentiment in the international chickpea market is one of consolidation. Recent analysis points to Kabuli prices in key origins stabilising after earlier softness, with Indian MSP and steady export interest preventing further declines. Domestic Indian wholesale prices are slightly below MSP-equivalent levels in some centres, reinforcing the idea that further downside would likely trigger stronger government buying appetite.

Speculative positioning in chickpeas is largely indirect, via broader pulse and grain exposure rather than listed derivatives. With no fresh bullish catalyst, managed money appears more inclined to maintain light length rather than add aggressively. Stable Mexican FOB offers, combined with competitive Black Sea and North American pulses, cap the upside in the near term, but the absence of major new supply from alternative exporters keeps the market from turning decisively bearish.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading Ideas

Trading Outlook (next 3–5 days)

• Indian exporters: With FOB New Delhi values stable and supported by MSP and heatwave-related logistics costs, consider locking in near-term sales on large-calibre Kabuli (11–12 mm) where international demand is firm, while keeping some flexibility on smaller calibres to respond to any monsoon-related sentiment shifts.
• Importers in Mediterranean / Middle East: Use recent softening in Mexican FOB offers to secure small- to medium-calibre cover for June–July shipment, especially where quality specs allow substitution away from higher-priced Indian large calibres.
• Indian domestic buyers: With mandi prices in key Gujarat centres moving sideways and government procurement underpinning the floor, stagger purchases rather than waiting for a sharp correction that current fundamentals do not justify.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (directional, in EUR)

• India – New Delhi FOB Kabuli 42–44, 12 mm: ≈ 870–890 EUR/t, bias sideways to slightly firm as heatwave supports holding behaviour and MSP underpins floors.
• India – New Delhi FOB Kabuli 60–62, 8 mm: ≈ 760–780 EUR/t, likely sideways with limited fresh export demand but no major selling pressure.
• Mexico – Mexico City FOB Kabuli 42–44, 12 mm: ≈ 1,040–1,070 EUR/t, bias sideways to slightly soft as exporters remain competitive to attract demand.
• Mexico – Mexico City FOB 75–80, 8 mm: ≈ 680–700 EUR/t, expected to trade sideways with comfortable stocks and stable weather.