German Feed Oat Prices Flat Despite Soft Global Oat Market

German feed oat prices remain unchanged at around EUR 179/t EXW Drentwede, even as global oat benchmarks have softened over the past month. Local availability and modest nearby demand are keeping a floor under domestic values, while import alternatives from Ukraine remain at a premium once logistics and risk are included. After several weeks of pressure on grains, the broader cereal complex has stabilised, with EU wheat and maize edging up from recent lows and global oats drifting but not collapsing. For German feed compounders and livestock producers, this translates into a rather calm oat market: no immediate price breakout, but also limited downside while weather and harvest prospects are still being reassessed. Short-term, buyers can use the sideways phase to secure nearby coverage, while remaining alert to weather volatility and Black Sea export flows.

Prices & Differentials

German feed-grade oats (conventional, 14% max moisture, EXW Drentwede) are indicated around EUR 0.179/kg (≈ EUR 179/t), stable compared with mid-June.

• Global oat spot prices are around EUR 275–280/t on an exchange/spot basis, roughly 13–14% lower than 30 days ago and about 12% below the 12‑month average, pointing to an overall soft international market.
• Ukrainian feed oats for export near Odesa (FCA) are notionally around EUR 250/t, indicating a sizeable premium over German EXW levels before freight into Germany.
• In the wider grain complex, Euronext wheat has rebounded to around EUR 203–205/t for nearby contracts, a two‑week high that provides some indirect support to feed grains including oats.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

European grain markets have recently stabilised after multi‑month lows, helped by stronger wheat and maize and steady export activity from the EU. While oats are a smaller crop and less actively traded, the overall cereal environment is no longer as bearish as in early June.

Ukraine remains a key marginal supplier of feed grains into the EU. Grain exports in the 2025/26 season are running about 12% below last year’s pace, reflecting logistics constraints and some harvest losses, but volumes are still substantial. Black Sea freight rates have stabilised at relatively low levels, yet cargo demand is insufficient to tighten the market significantly, suggesting continued competitiveness for Ukrainian grain exports, including oats where available.

Weather & Crop Conditions (DE Focus)

In Western and Northern Germany, including Lower Saxony, forecasts for the coming days point to unsettled conditions with showers and local thunderstorms linked to a broader storm system stretching from northeastern France through Benelux into western Germany. This pattern should prevent acute drought stress for oats but could briefly slow fieldwork and increase lodging risk in dense stands.

At the European level, analysts highlight that while crop ratings for cereals have improved versus earlier spring concerns, lower sown areas in parts of the EU and a still volatile weather outlook keep production risks on the table. For oats, which are often grown on lighter soils, the combination of adequate moisture and moderate temperatures in northern Germany is currently neutral to slightly positive for yield potential.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Global oats softness: International oats prices have trended lower over the past month, reflecting comfortable stocks and a lack of strong speculative interest.
• Support from other grains: The rebound in EU wheat and maize from multi‑month lows helps to underpin feed grain values; this limits downside for oats even as their own fundamentals are relatively heavy.
• Ukrainian logistics: Grain exports from Ukraine remain robust but below last year’s levels, and recent analysis suggests logistics are constrained enough to cap export surges, preventing a flood of cheap Black Sea feed grains into the EU.

Trading Outlook

• Feed buyers (Germany): Use current flat prices around EUR 179/t EXW to extend coverage into early Q3, especially for farms and mills in northern Germany where local supply appears adequate but not excessive.
• Producers: With international oats still significantly above local levels, there is limited pressure to discount. Consider scaling in sales on any further strength in wheat/maize or if weather turns more clearly favourable into heading and grain fill.
• Traders: The wide spread between Ukrainian FCA values and German EXW, once freight and risk premia are included, leaves only selective import opportunities; focus on niche demand or blending strategies rather than large directional positions.

3‑Day Price Direction (Germany, DE)

• Germany – EXW feed oats (Drentwede): Sideways to mildly firm over the next 3 days, with a likely range of ±EUR 2–3/t around EUR 179/t, as stable local demand offsets soft global oats benchmarks.