German Feed Oats Edge Higher as New-Crop Pressure Fades

German feed oat prices in northern Germany have edged slightly higher this week, supported by a calmer harvest pace and broadly stable feed demand. In Drentwede, spot feed oats are indicated around EUR 202/t EXW, up from roughly EUR 195/t in late August. Nearby upside remains limited, but the market is showing the first signs of firming as sellers resist further discounts. The broader German cereal harvest report points to an overall average grains crop in 2026, with regional heat and dryness but no dramatic oat shortage. This keeps the domestic oats balance relatively comfortable, even as some growers report yield and quality variability. Cash markets across northern and southern Germany are largely flat in early September, indicating that supply and demand are roughly in equilibrium. Weather for the next few days in Lower Saxony turns cooler and more humid, with light showers that may slow any remaining fieldwork but are unlikely to materially change the short‑term price picture.

Prices

Cash indications for feed oats in northern Germany are broadly in line with regional market reports showing flat to slightly firmer levels around EUR 195–200/t EXW for early September delivery. Compared with August, this represents a mild recovery from prior lows and confirms a stabilising price trend.

Pan‑European data also show German oat prices trading close to the middle of the EU range, with some neighbouring countries posting similar or slightly lower levels, underlining the absence of acute local tightness. International futures for oats have been steady to mildly higher this week, providing a neutral‑to‑supportive backdrop for European cash markets.

Supply & Demand

The German federal harvest report for 2026 points to a cereals crop close to the multi‑year average, despite notable regional stress from heat and dryness, especially in parts of northern Germany. Regional analysis for Lower Saxony confirms that high temperatures and cost pressure shaped the season but overall yields for key grains are described as satisfactory rather than catastrophic.

Within this context, oats benefit from decent planted area across the EU and continued farmer interest due to relatively attractive returns compared with some other spring grains. EU demand for oats in feed remains steady but not booming, with parts of the compound feed industry still favouring wheat and barley where available. This is consistent with calm physical markets in Germany, where new‑crop deliveries have replenished stocks and buyers feel no urgent need to bid prices sharply higher.

Fundamentals & Weather

Updated German and EU statistics confirm that cereals output in 2026 is neither excessively tight nor burdensome, providing a relatively balanced background for niche grains such as oats. Regional varietal trial results for summer oats in southern Germany suggest stable yield potential, supporting the view that supply problems are localised rather than structural.

The short‑term weather outlook for Drentwede (Lower Saxony) over the next three days indicates mostly cloudy conditions, moderate daytime highs around 19–21°C and some light rain on Friday, before turning slightly warmer and dry. With most oats already harvested, these conditions mainly affect any residual fieldwork and grain drying costs but are unlikely to shift the regional supply picture in the near term.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Bias: mildly firm. With harvest pressure easing and prices already off the lows, the near‑term bias for German feed oats is slightly upward, but capped by good domestic and EU availability.
• For sellers (farmers, cooperatives): Consider incrementally pricing a portion of remaining old‑ and new‑crop at current levels above EUR 200/t EXW in the north, while keeping some volume open in case of winter weather or logistics‑driven strength.
• For buyers (feed mills, traders): Continue hand‑to‑mouth coverage for Q4 while monitoring Black Sea logistics and broader grain markets; use any short‑lived dips back towards the mid‑190s EUR/t in northern Germany as an opportunity to extend coverage.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

• Northern Germany (Drentwede, feed oats EXW): Stable to slightly firmer, expected range ~EUR 200–205/t over the next three days.
• Southern Germany (feed oats EXW/FOB inland): Mostly steady around EUR 175–180/t, with limited volatility expected.
• EU reference (wholesale oats): Sideways near ~EUR 200–210/t, tracking a calm global oats complex.