German Feed Oats Hold Firm as Harvest Starts Under Mild Weather

German feed oat prices in Lower Saxony remain flat, with only limited harvest pressure so far and stable competition from Ukrainian origins despite elevated Black Sea logistics risk. Early new-crop availability and mild, mostly dry weather in northern Germany are keeping the market well supplied, while feed compounders show no urgency to extend coverage beyond nearby needs. Imports from Ukraine remain price-competitive on paper, but higher freight and insurance costs out of Greater Odesa limit aggressive undercutting, leaving the regional cash market broadly balanced rather than oversupplied.

Prices

EXW feed oats in Drentwede, Lower Saxony, are indicated around 0.195 EUR/kg (≈195 EUR/t), unchanged since 28 July and about 9% above mid-July levels after a step-up from 0.179 EUR/kg earlier in the month.

Ukrainian feed oats FCA Odesa are recently assessed near 0.22–0.24 EUR/kg (≈220–240 EUR/t), reflecting some softening from earlier levels as exporters absorb higher logistics and insurance costs from repeated attacks on port and infrastructure in the Greater Odesa area.

Supply & Demand

EU trade statistics show cumulative oat movements in 2025/26 running well above the prior season, pointing to an overall comfortable supply situation in Europe despite some local tightness.

In Germany, early reports describe a broadly average oat crop, with no major weather-related losses so far. Regional feed demand remains muted as livestock producers manage costs, and other feed grains such as barley and wheat also trade at competitive levels, capping oats’ upside.

In Ukraine, grain sales volumes are increasing year on year, but export flows are constrained by security risks and higher logistics costs around Greater Odesa, which effectively lower farm-gate returns and limit aggressive discounting in export offers.

Weather & Harvest Update (DE Focus)

For Lower Saxony, including the Drentwede area, the 7–14 day outlook points to mild temperatures mostly in the low-to-mid 20s °C, with only scattered showers and no prolonged heavy rain episodes.

This pattern is supportive for ongoing cereal and oat harvesting, helping to avoid quality downgrades from excessive moisture while preventing severe heat stress. With no immediate weather threat, harvest is expected to progress smoothly, reinforcing the stable tone in the physical market over the near term.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Comfortable EU balance: Rising cumulative oat movements and relatively robust stocks in the EU keep overall supply adequate, even as demand from food and specialty segments remains steady.
• Black Sea logistics risk: Repeated attacks around Greater Odesa have pushed up logistics and insurance costs, tempering Ukraine’s ability to flood the market with cheap oats despite lower internal grain prices.
• Quiet feed demand: German livestock and feed compounders appear largely covered for the short term and are cautious about extending coverage, a pattern also seen in other feed markets.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• For German farmers: With EXW Drentwede holding near 0.195 EUR/kg and no strong bullish triggers, consider incremental sales on strength but avoid over-committing if you expect local basis to stay firm versus other grains.
• For feed buyers: Nearby coverage can be maintained at current levels; look for minor harvest-related dips to extend positions rather than chasing the market higher.
• For traders: The spread between German EXW and Ukrainian FCA Odesa oats remains narrow once freight and risk premiums are included, limiting arbitrage; focus on short-haul logistics advantages and quality niches.

3‑day regional price indication (EUR, directional):

• Northern Germany (EXW mills, feed oats): around 0.19–0.20 EUR/kg, bias: sideways.
• Ukraine, FCA Odesa feed oats (EUR equivalent): around 0.22–0.24 EUR/kg, bias: sideways to slightly softer if logistics disruptions persist.