German Feed Oats Hold Firm Near €0.21/kg as Weather Risk Eases

German and Ukrainian feed oat prices are trading sideways, with German EXW quotations in northern regions holding around the upper end of the recent range and Ukrainian FCA Black Sea values slightly below but equally stable. No immediate weather or policy shock is visible that would break this consolidation in the next few days. The German feed grain complex remains underpinned by earlier weather‑related harvest losses and firm maize benchmarks, but oats are lagging any fresh rally and instead moving in a narrow band. Regional market bulletins in northern Germany describe spot feed oats as well supplied despite lower national cereal output, helped by robust EU‑wide oat availability and competitive Black Sea supplies. Current short‑term weather forecasts for Lower Saxony show mostly mild, dry conditions, reducing immediate harvest and quality risk. In this environment, buyers face limited downside in nearby positions, while sellers still benefit from historically firm levels but without clear signals for a rapid price spike.

Prices

German feed oats (feed grade, moisture 14% max, EXW Drentwede, origin DE) are quoted at 0.205 EUR/kg EXW, unchanged since 17 September 2026 after a gradual firming from early September levels. Ukrainian feed oats (for feed, 98% purity, FCA Odesa, origin UA) stand at 0.19 EUR/kg FCA, also flat versus previous indications.

Recent EU cash market commentary confirms German and Ukrainian feed oat prices as firm but range‑bound close to 0.20 EUR/kg, with northern German physical values carrying a noticeable premium over broader national averages due to logistics and quality factors. Regional German grain reports show oats broadly tracking the sideways move in the wider feed grain complex rather than the stronger tone observed in maize.

Supply & Demand

Germany’s 2026 cereal harvest has been constrained by dryness and heat, putting structural support under feed grain prices, including oats, in key livestock regions such as Lower Saxony. Despite this, EU‑level oats supply remains comfortable, with high planted area in recent seasons and no major crop shock reported so far this marketing year. This combination helps explain why German spot values are firm but not accelerating.

Black Sea origins continue to provide competitive feed oat and other cereal flows, with Ukrainian exports via Odesa contributing to the broader availability picture despite ongoing regional risks. For now, logistics on key routes remain sufficiently functional that no immediate supply squeeze is priced into FCA Black Sea quotations. On the demand side, steady feed use in Germany and neighbouring EU markets keeps a solid floor under consumption, but there is little sign of sudden rationing or aggressive restocking.

Weather & Logistics (DE Focus)

Short‑term weather forecasts for Drentwede and surrounding areas in Lower Saxony (19–22 September 2026) indicate mostly overcast to cloudy conditions with daytime highs between the mid‑teens and around 20 °C, limited precipitation probabilities mostly below 30%, and no significant storms or strong winds expected. Such a pattern supports stable logistics and on‑farm handling of remaining oats and other cereals.

With the main harvest period largely completed and no acute rain or wind threat, weather is unlikely to exert strong additional pressure on oat quality or yields in the very near term. Earlier season heat and dryness have already been priced in via firmer cereal benchmarks, and the current benign outlook instead favours continued smooth movement of grain from farm to regional consumers.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Harvest backdrop: National German harvest assessments highlight below‑average cereal output due to summer weather stress, supporting a generally firmer price environment for feed grains, including oats.
• EU context: The latest EU agricultural market overview points to overall adequate cereals availability in the bloc, limiting the scope for an oat‑specific squeeze despite regional tightness.
• Relative value: Commentary on German feed oats underlines that current quotations around 0.20 EUR/kg place them in the upper segment of the EU price range but still broadly aligned with related feed grains when quality and freight premia are considered.
• Speculative & hedge flows: There is no fresh evidence of strong speculative buying in oats specifically; instead, price risk is more closely tied to maize and wheat benchmarks, which act as the main anchors for feed rations.

Trading Outlook

• Feed users (DE): With EXW Drentwede feed oats steady at 0.205 EUR/kg and short‑term weather and logistics risks low, consider covering nearby needs but avoid over‑extending coverage unless maize or wheat rally sharply.
• Producers (DE): Current prices remain attractive versus recent years and already reflect harvest concerns; incremental selling on strength around present levels appears prudent while holding a portion back in case of further feed complex gains.
• Importers/Traders (UA–DE flows): The small but consistent discount of Ukrainian FCA Odesa oats at 0.19 EUR/kg to German EXW values supports continued cross‑border flows; monitor Black Sea logistics and freight for any disruption‑driven widening of this spread.

3‑Day Price Indication (19–21 September 2026)

• Germany, EXW Drentwede feed oats (DE origin): Sideways to slightly firm bias around 0.205 EUR/kg EXW, with limited volatility expected in the absence of new maize or wheat shocks.
• Ukraine, FCA Odesa feed oats (UA origin): Stable around 0.19 EUR/kg FCA; any moves are likely to track broader Black Sea grain sentiment rather than oat‑specific news.