German Feed Oats Slip from Recent Highs as New Crop Supply Builds

German feed oat prices in Drentwede have eased slightly from last week’s local peak, reflecting the arrival of new crop supply and cautious demand from feed buyers. Ukrainian export oats remain nominally higher, but escalating security risks around Odesa are capping effective export flows rather than lifting prices markedly. After several sessions of sideways trading around EUR 0.195/kg EXW in late July, German feed oat values in northern Germany have slipped to about EUR 0.188/kg EXW as of 3 August, a roughly 3–4% correction from the local high. The pullback comes as good harvest progress in northern Germany coincides with broadly stable EU feed grain availability. At the same time, renewed port disruptions in Ukraine’s Odesa region are limiting Black Sea competition on paper, but logistical uncertainty and risk premiums are dampening trade flows more than driving visible price spikes in nearby physical oats.

Prices

German conventional feed oats (moisture 14% max, EXW Drentwede) are indicated around EUR 0.188/kg, down from EUR 0.195/kg at the end of July, but still above mid-July levels near EUR 0.179/kg. This keeps the market in a mildly softer yet elevated band versus early-month values.

Ukrainian feed oats (FCA Odesa) are notionally indicated around EUR 0.22/kgreddit.com)

Supply & Demand

German and broader EU oats enter August with relatively comfortable supply, supported by the 2024 rebound in EU oat production and stable or slightly softer feed demand. Eurostat data highlighted a sharper oats harvest recovery in the EU in 2024, with Germany among the key contributors to increased area and output, cushioning local markets against sharp spikes.  

In Ukraine, official statistics underscore the country’s continued role as a major grain exporter, with agriculture accounting for around 59% of export revenues in 2024. However, recent intensified Russian drone and missile attacks on Odesa-area ports have reduced storage capacity and led some logistics and agro-industrial operators in the region to temporarily suspend operations, tightening effective export availability despite adequate inland grain supply.  

Weather & Harvest Conditions (Germany, Region DE)

Weather in northern Germany, including Lower Saxony (Drentwede area), has recently turned more seasonally stable after the severe winter episode linked to Storm Goretti earlier in the year. Current early-August conditions are generally favourable for cereal harvesting, with only scattered showers and moderate temperatures, supporting steady oat cutting and limiting harvest delays.  

With no major heatwave or prolonged rainfall forecast in the coming days, harvest pressure is likely to persist in the near term. This encourages on-farm selling at current levels, particularly as farmers look to free up storage for later-harvested crops and to secure liquidity after a weather-challenged winter season in parts of northern Germany.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

• EU oats balance: The EU’s rebound in oats production in 2024, especially in Germany, has improved the regional balance and capped upside in local inland prices despite broader volatility in other grains.  
• Black Sea risk premium: Russian strikes and security incidents around Odesa have curtailed seaborne grain traffic periods and damaged port storage, raising insurance costs and operational risks for Ukrainian exports. This reduces nearby competition into the EU but has so far translated more into volume disruptions than sustained price surges for niche crops like oats.  
• Competing grains & macro backdrop: Reports of very low grain prices and financial stress among Russian farmers, combined with export duties, illustrate a broader oversupply in parts of the region. This caps international grain price rallies and indirectly limits upside in EU feed oats despite localised logistical issues.  

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

• For German buyers: Use the current dip towards EUR 0.188/kg EXW as an opportunity to extend cover modestly for nearby feed needs. Avoid over-covering into Q4, as comfortable EU oats supply and still-fragile demand argue for only limited upside risk in the short term.
• For German sellers: With harvest pressure and stable weather, expect further buyer resistance above EUR 0.19/kg EXW. Consider scaling sales on any bounce back towards last week’s highs, especially if local elevators and compounders signal good coverage on other feed grains.
• For importers watching Ukraine: Treat Ukrainian oat offers via Odesa with caution: price indications around EUR 0.22/kg FCA may not fully compensate for heightened logistics and security risks. Alternative EU origins remain strategically safer for nearby delivery windows.  

3-day directional outlook (Region DE):

• Germany (Drentwede, EXW): Slightly softer to sideways. Harvest pressure and steady weather suggest a narrow range around EUR 0.185–0.19/kg, with limited scope for immediate recovery.
• Ukraine (Odesa, FCA): Nominally steady around EUR 0.22/kg, but with increasing risk of execution issues and potential further shipment suspensions if security conditions deteriorate.