German Feed Oats Steady as Heatwave Approaches and Black Sea Risks Re‑Emerge
German feed oat prices hold around EUR 0.18/kg as hot, dry weather speeds harvest and Black Sea port strikes add risk to Ukrainian oats. Short-term outlook inside.
Prices
German conventional feed oats (EXW northern Germany) are indicated around EUR 0.18/kg (EUR 180/t), unchanged over the past three weeks, suggesting a well-balanced local spot market.
Ukrainian feed oats FCA Odesa are quoted near EUR 0.24/kg (about EUR 240/t), down roughly 4% compared with early July amid harvest pressure but now constrained by fresh security concerns at nearby Black Sea ports. Internationally, CME oat futures have edged slightly lower in recent sessions, reinforcing a generally soft global price environment for oats.
Supply & Demand
In Germany and the wider EU, oats remain a relatively small cereal but with comfortable supply after large 2025 harvests and still-elevated stocks, keeping buyers relaxed as the 2026 harvest starts. Early grain cutting has begun in northern states such as Schleswig-Holstein, with first reports of average to slightly above-average yields in winter cereals, supporting a broadly ample feed grain balance.
In Ukraine, Odesa oblast has already collected over 1 million tonnes of new-crop grains, with good field conditions underpinning supply availability from the south. However, renewed Russian attacks on Black Sea terminals, including Chornomorsk and strikes on Odesa transport infrastructure on 10–13 July 2026, threaten export flows and could intermittently tighten regional feed grain offers.
Weather & Harvest Outlook (Region: Germany)
Weather forecasts for Lower Saxony and northern Germany point to a hot, mostly dry spell with daytime highs around 28–31°C through mid-July, under high pressure conditions. This pattern accelerates grain ripening and should allow good harvest progress for oats and other cereals in the coming week.
Moisture deficits could marginally limit late yield potential on lighter soils, but no widespread crop damage is expected at this stage. For feed oats, the weather setup is more harvest-friendly than yield-threatening, which argues against a near-term weather-driven price spike in Germany.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- EU balance: The latest short-term EU outlook highlights favourable crop conditions and slightly higher cereal yields overall, implying comfortable oat and cross-feed grain supplies into 2026/27.
- Competition in feed rations: Soft prices in barley and other feed grains across Germany and neighbouring markets keep substitution pressure on oats.
- Black Sea logistics: Weaker regional freight rates around Odesa reflect ample cargo availability but also hesitant buying; at the same time, new port attacks inject risk and potential volatility into Ukrainian offers.
Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price View
- For German buyers (feed mills, traders): Short-term coverage can still be taken on dips around EUR 0.18/kg, but avoid over-covering beyond immediate needs given ample EU supply and benign weather. Consider staggered purchases into harvest rather than large spot volumes.
- For German farmers/sellers: With stable local bids and no clear bullish impulse, incremental selling into harvest on rallies linked to any Black Sea headlines may be preferable to waiting for a large weather premium that currently looks unlikely.
- For users of Ukrainian oats: Attractive nominal FCA Odesa prices are partly offset by heightened logistics and security risk; building only limited forward exposure and diversifying origins within the EU is advisable in the near term.
3-day directional outlook (15–17 July 2026, EUR terms):
- Germany, EXW northern plains: Sideways to marginally softer (harvest pressure offsets any heat-related concerns).
- Ukraine, FCA Odesa: Sideways to slightly firmer (security risk premium counterbalances harvest pressure).