German Feed Oats Flat Amid Early Harvest and Mild Weather

German feed oat prices are holding almost unchanged at low levels as the 2026 harvest starts and global oat benchmarks remain weak. Stable on-farm offers and comfortable EU cereals availability are keeping buyers relaxed, while weather in northern Germany looks generally supportive for yield and quality in the very short term. The German grain harvest has just begun under significant price pressure for farmers, with cereals trading well below previous years as buyers leverage abundant global supply and subdued feed demand. In Lower Saxony, moderate temperatures, scattered showers and only localized wind warnings should allow steady crop development without major stress over the next few days. Internationally, benchmark oat prices have only just bounced slightly after a steep year‑on‑year decline, limiting any upside for local feed oats. Overall, the market feels well supplied, with buyers in no hurry and sellers showing limited pricing power in early July.

Prices

Feed oat offers in northern Germany (EXW farm, conventional, feed quality) are around EUR 0.18/kg, effectively unchanged over the last two weeks. Domestic prices track a global oat market that is still down almost 30% versus a year ago, despite a small rebound in the last few days.

Ukrainian feed oat offers converted to EUR remain visibly higher than German farm levels, which caps import interest into Germany for feed use under current freight and risk premia. At the same time, global oat futures have risen about 3–4% since 2 July but remain in a broader downward trend, reinforcing the perception of a low but not collapsing market.

Supply & Demand

Germany’s grain harvest has begun, with industry reports highlighting strong price pressure on farmers due to good availability and muted demand rather than weather worries. Oats are a relatively small but regionally important summer cereal; current indications suggest no major area loss and broadly normal crop potential.

At EU level, the Commission’s cereals monitoring points to comfortable overall cereals balances for 2025/26, with net exports of grains projected to rise in 2026/27. This backdrop limits upside for minor cereals like oats, where domestic feed demand competes with plentiful barley and wheat. Ukrainian grain export infrastructure has largely re‑oriented back to the Black Sea, with around 90% of grain and oilseed exports in April 2026 shipped via sea, keeping Black Sea feed grain flows competitive into global markets.

Weather & Crop Conditions (DE)

For Drentwede and surrounding parts of Lower Saxony, the 3‑day outlook (3–5 July) shows mild temperatures around 22–23°C with a mix of sun and clouds. Light showers are forecast over the weekend, providing helpful moisture without prolonged rainfall.

Soil moisture data for northern Germany as of 1 July point to only localized dryness, with large parts of Lower Saxony showing near‑normal conditions for this time of year. A low‑level wind‑gust warning for parts of the region may briefly hamper field work but is not expected to damage cereals. Overall, weather remains neutral to slightly positive for oat yield and quality in the very short term, supporting the perception of adequate supply.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Global benchmarks weak: International oat prices on derivatives markets are about 14% lower than a month ago and nearly 30% below last year, signalling ample global availability.
• EU cereals balance comfortable: Recent EU outlooks point to rising net exports for cereals in 2026/27, implying no structural tightness and strong competition between feed grains.
• Black Sea logistics normalizing: Ukraine has regained sea export capacity, with Black Sea routes again dominating its grain exports, keeping Black Sea oats and other feed grains available despite ongoing geopolitical risk.
• German farmers under price pressure: Early harvest reports emphasize low grain prices and higher costs, pushing some growers to delay sales where storage allows, but buyers still see no urgency to bid up feed oats.

Short-Term Trading Outlook

• For sellers (farmers, collectors): With harvest advancing and prices flat, near‑term rallies look limited. Consider incremental sales on any brief upticks linked to weather scares or currency moves, particularly if storage space is tight.
• For buyers (feed mills, traders): Current levels around EUR 0.18/kg for German feed oats remain attractive versus historical benchmarks and higher Black Sea offers. Gradual coverage for Q3–Q4 seems reasonable, but there is no urgent need to chase volume in the next few days.
• Risk factors to watch: Sudden adverse weather in northern Germany or Scandinavia, logistics disruptions in the Black Sea, or a broader cereals rally could quickly tighten the oat balance and reverse today’s softness.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (DE)

• Northern Germany (ex-farm feed oats, Lower Saxony): Sideways to marginally softer. Ample supply and benign weather suggest prices likely hold near EUR 0.18/kg through 5 July, with only a slight downward bias if harvest pressure intensifies.
• Imported Black Sea oats (delivered DE, indicative): Stable. Higher origin prices plus freight and risk premia keep them at a premium over domestic oats, limiting price influence on the German farm market in the next three days.