German Feed Oats Hold Steady While Global Oat Benchmarks Slide

German feed oat prices are currently flat in a globally weak oat market, with local EXW levels in northern Germany showing no movement over the past week despite a sharp year‑on‑year decline in international oat benchmarks. Short‑term weather in north-west Germany looks broadly supportive for crop development, limiting any immediate weather‑risk premium in local prices. In a wider context, global oat prices remain under pressure, with international oat benchmarks down almost 30% versus last year, reflecting comfortable supplies and subdued demand in both feed and food channels. In Germany, average oat prices in June traded slightly above current local feed values, confirming that the domestic market is in a soft but stable range. Weather in Lower Saxony is seasonally warm with only scattered showers, suggesting no acute production threat in the coming days that could jolt prices.

Prices

International oat prices remain weak. Benchmark oat contracts were quoted around 276.75 USc/bu on 28 June 2026, down roughly 23% over the past month and nearly 28% year‑on‑year, underscoring a globally bearish tone in oats compared with other grains.

In Germany, indicative June 2026 oat prices averaged about 0.21 EUR/kg, slightly above current feed oat indications in northern Germany and around 3% lower than a year earlier. Local EXW feed oat prices in Drentwede are stable at roughly 0.18 EUR/kg, with no change over the past week, pointing to a sideways market ahead of new‑crop availability.

Supply & Demand

Global oat markets are well supplied, with the steep year‑on‑year drop in international prices indicating that production in key exporters and carry‑in stocks remain comfortable. In Germany, the modest decline in average June prices versus last year suggests sufficient local availability and limited feed‑sector urgency to bid the market higher.

Broader Black Sea grain flows, particularly from Ukraine, continue to function at reduced but significant volumes, with over 120 million tonnes of grain reported shipped via the current Black Sea corridor since its establishment. While this mainly concerns wheat and maize, it helps cap overall feed grain prices in Europe and indirectly limits upside potential for feed oats.

Weather & Crop Outlook (Germany)

For Drentwede and surrounding parts of Lower Saxony, the 3‑day outlook (1–3 July 2026) points to warm but not extreme temperatures, with highs around 22–25°C, cool nights near 11–12°C, and only scattered showers under a mix of sun and clouds.

These conditions are broadly favourable for late‑season development and ripening of spring cereals, without strong heat or drought stress. The limited rainfall forecast suggests no immediate harvest delay risk, but also little weather‑driven support for prices in the very short term.

Trading Outlook

• Feed buyers: With local oats stable and global benchmarks weak, consider maintaining only moderate coverage for Q3 while monitoring harvest progress and any weather surprises; price risk currently tilts slightly to the downside.
• Producers: At around 0.18 EUR/kg EXW, current forward levels appear unexciting; holding limited unpriced stocks into early harvest could be justified, but large speculative length seems risky given the global downtrend.
• Traders: Basis levels versus international oat benchmarks are relatively firm; opportunities may arise if global prices rebound from oversold territory, but near‑term spreads favour cautious, low‑inventory strategies.

3‑Day Price Indication (Germany)

• Drentwede EXW feed oats: Sideways around 0.18 EUR/kg over the next 3 days, with a slight downward bias if harvest selling accelerates and global oat futures remain under pressure.
• German average oats: Expected to hover close to 0.20–0.21 EUR/kg, tracking soft international sentiment and stable domestic supply.