Oats Under Pressure: CBOT Futures Slide While EU Feed Prices Hold Steady

Oat futures remain under pressure on the CBOT with front-month contracts drifting lower, while physical feed oat prices in Europe and the Black Sea hold broadly stable. The curve is mildly backwardated from mid‑2027 onward, signalling ample medium‑term supply and limited risk premium. The market is digesting weaker international benchmarks and a soft demand backdrop, especially from the oat-food segment, just as North American and European crops progress under largely seasonable conditions. Nearby CBOT prices are trading well below recent 30‑day averages, but cash prices in Germany and Ukraine have barely moved in June, highlighting a disconnect between futures-driven sentiment and local feed fundamentals. For now, buyers see no urgency, and sellers are restrained by already low levels, pointing to range‑bound trade unless weather or macro shocks emerge.

Prices

CBOT Jul 2026 oats last traded around 275.00 US¢/bu on June 29, down 1.75¢ on the day (‑0.6%), after touching a low of 272.00¢/bu in thin volume. Sep 2026 settled higher at 316.50¢/bu (+0.7%), while Dec 2026 closed at 326.25¢/bu (+0.7%), indicating a modest carry into new crop.

Further out, Mar 2027 is quoted at 334.50¢/bu and May 2027 at 339.50¢/bu, with low trading activity and slightly softer settlements versus earlier in the week. Contracts into 2027–28 show levels clustered in the low‑ to mid‑330s¢/bu, reinforcing the picture of comfortable forward supply.

*Indicative EUR/t using current FX and standard oats conversion; for orientation only.

Supply & Demand

In Canada, the key export origin, seeded oat area for 2026 is projected about 3% lower year‑on‑year and roughly 10% below the five‑year average, reflecting reduced farmer interest after several seasons of weak returns. Production is forecast to fall to around 3.4 Mt, with total supplies down about 6% as lower output outweighs higher carry‑in stocks. 

US crop progress reports still show generally good oat conditions in core states for this time of year, with no widespread stress signals so far.  In Europe, early summer cereal market commentary points to broadly stable grain balances and only localized weather concerns, leaving oats competitively priced in feed rations but facing soft human-consumption demand. 

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

Benchmark oat prices have corrected sharply: over the past month, international oat quotations are down almost 23% and nearly 30% year‑on‑year, underscoring how quickly risk premium has been squeezed out of the market.  Yet the CBOT forward curve from late 2026 through 2028 is relatively flat in the low‑330s¢/bu, aligned with official projections around 305 USD/t for 2025/26, suggesting expectations of structurally adequate supplies. 

Speculative interest in oats remains limited compared with other grains, amplifying the impact of thin volume on short‑term price swings, as seen in the very low trade counts for deferred contracts. In physical markets, the lack of movement in German and Ukrainian feed oat offers through June points to balanced local supply–demand: livestock rations have alternatives, while growers are reluctant to discount further at already depressed levels.

Weather Snapshot

Across the Canadian Prairies, recent weeks have brought near‑average temperatures and mixed precipitation. While some locales report moisture deficits, current assessments do not indicate a widespread drought scenario for oats, though yield risk will rise if July turns significantly hotter and drier. 

In the UK and parts of Northern Europe, official crop development data still classify most cereal and oilseed crops, including oats, in predominantly good condition as of late June, with only pockets of concern linked to variable rainfall.  Overall, weather is not yet a bullish driver but remains the key short‑term upside risk if patterns deteriorate.

Trading Outlook

• Feed buyers (EU, Black Sea): With local prices flat and futures under pressure, consider gradually extending cover on spot and early new‑crop needs in the 175–190 EUR/t range for standard feed oats, while avoiding over‑hedging beyond confirmed demand.
• Producers: Given low outright prices and a forward curve that still offers only modest carry, prioritize on‑farm storage and flexible sales over aggressive forward selling, unless attractive basis opportunities emerge.
• Traders: Watch for weather‑driven bounces to scale into short‑dated hedges; volatility is likely to be event‑driven, with macro risk sentiment and cross‑grain moves (wheat, barley) shaping relative value in feed formulations.

3‑Day Directional View (EUR terms)

• CBOT oats (Jul/Sep 2026): Slight downside to sideways bias; recent momentum and thin liquidity favour a test of recent lows if weather stays benign.
• EU feed oats (Germany, EXW): Largely stable; no immediate catalyst for either sharp discounts or rallies.
• Black Sea feed oats (Ukraine, FCA): Sideways; logistics and FX remain a bigger swing factor than global futures in the very short term.