German Feed Oat Prices Hold Steady Despite Global Futures Volatility

German feed oat prices in Lower Saxony remain flat, with local fundamentals offsetting sharp swings on international oat futures and weather‑driven noise across European grains. In northern Germany, ex‑farm feed oat values have shown no movement over the past week, even as benchmark oat futures in North America rebounded modestly after a steep month‑long decline. A record‑breaking heatwave is currently gripping much of Western and Central Europe, but German oat crops entered the hot spell in generally good condition, and no major supply losses are visible yet. At the same time, constrained Black Sea grain exports from Ukraine continue to tighten regional feed grain availability, helping to underpin continental prices. For now, the local oat market trades in a narrow range, with buyers covered short term and farmers in no rush to sell at current levels.

Prices

Feed-grade oat, ex-farm Drentwede (Lower Saxony), is indicated at about EUR 0.18/kg (EUR 179/t), unchanged from 16–24 June 2026. Ukrainian feed oats ex Odesa FCA are notionally around EUR 0.25/kg (EUR 250/t), also flat over recent weeks.

Globally, benchmark oat futures recovered to about 285 USc/bu on 25 June after a 22% slide over the past month, leaving prices nearly 22% below last year. This global weakness contrasts with the relatively stable German physical market, where oats trade at a discount to other cereals but show little fresh downside momentum.

German oats thus remain competitive versus other feed grains, but with limited liquidity and tight bid‑offer spreads.

Supply & Demand

Recent EU and UK crop assessments point to generally improved cereal conditions after earlier dryness, with no widespread damage reported for oats in Germany. Germany is a mid‑sized oat producer within the EU, and good 2024 harvest volumes have so far ensured comfortable domestic supply.

However, ongoing war‑related disruptions are sharply curbing Ukraine’s overall grain exports, as Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and infrastructure constrain capacity and push more volumes through costlier rail corridors. While oats are a minor share of these flows, the broader tightening in Black Sea coarse grains supports European feed grain values and limits downside for imported oats into the EU.

Weather Snapshot – Northern Germany Focus

Germany is currently under a record‑breaking heatwave, with model forecasts and media pointing to 35–40°C in parts of the country around 26–28 June. In Lower Saxony and the wider North German Plain, high daytime temperatures and strong sunshine are accelerating crop development and drying topsoils.

For oats, which are relatively tolerant to cooler, moist conditions, the main short‑term risk is heat stress during grain filling and further moisture loss on lighter soils. For now, forecasts still suggest some localized thunderstorms and a possible moderation of temperatures after the peak, implying that yield potential is not yet decisively impaired. Weather remains a key watchpoint for July.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Global futures under pressure: Oat futures remain well below last year despite the latest uptick, reflecting comfortable North American supplies and soft demand.
• EU cereals context: European wheat has eased recently, while maize rallied on heat and drought concerns; oats tend to follow this mixed complex but with a discount and thinner trading.
• Structural Black Sea risk: Ukraine’s reduced grain export capacity keeps a risk premium in regional feed markets, indirectly supporting oat prices despite their small traded volumes.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• For feed buyers: Use the current stability around EUR 180/t EXW as an opportunity to secure nearby cover, but stagger purchases given global futures weakness and the possibility of post‑heatwave yield relief.
• For farmers/sellers: With Black Sea logistics fragile and EU heat risks still evolving, avoid heavy forward selling at a discount to wheat; consider incremental sales on any weather‑driven rallies in the broader feed complex.
• For traders: Monitor weather maps for northern Germany and Scandinavia as well as Ukrainian export headlines; basis levels for oats could firm quickly if the heatwave translates into confirmed yield losses in July.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (Germany, DE)

• Drentwede (EXW feed oats): 26–28 June 2026 – prices expected broadly sideways around EUR 175–185/t, with a slight upside bias if heat persists and local sellers turn more cautious.
• National German oat references: Limited fresh spot indications, but relative values versus wheat and barley are likely to remain stable to slightly firmer as long as the heatwave dominates cereal headlines.