Oats Edge Higher on Weather Risks Despite Weak Liquidity
Concise oats market analysis: CBOT futures edge higher on European heat and Black Sea wheat downgrades, while German and Ukrainian feed oat prices stay stable.
Prices
On June 26, the CBOT July 2026 oats contract last traded at about 278.25 USc/bu, up 1.64% from the previous day. This equates to roughly 98 EUR/t, while September 2026 is near 312.25 USc/bu (≈110 EUR/t) and December 2026 around 326.25 USc/bu (≈115 EUR/t), indicating a modestly upward-sloping forward curve.
In the physical market, recent indicative prices show Ukrainian feed oats (FCA Odesa, conventional, 98% purity) holding steady at about 0.25 EUR/kg (~250 EUR/t), unchanged since late May. German feed-grade oats (EXW Drentwede, 14% max moisture) are stable around 0.179 EUR/kg (~179 EUR/t), with no notable price movement in June.
Supply & Demand Context
The main impulses for oats currently come indirectly from wheat. A persistent heatwave across France, Spain and Germany is stressing EU cereal crops, supporting Paris wheat and, by spillover, CBOT grains including oats. The latest EU yield outlook still places wheat yields above the five-year average but below last year, highlighting some weather risk but not a severe supply shock yet.
In the Black Sea, SovEcon has trimmed its Russian wheat harvest estimate for 2026/27 by 1.4 million tonnes due to reduced spring wheat area, while Ukrainian wheat harvest expectations are slightly above last year. Lower Russian output and weather concerns raise the floor under global grain prices, which can lend support to oats, though oats themselves remain a minor traded cereal with largely regional balances.
Fundamentals & Weather
Oat-specific fundamentals appear relatively stable: there are no clear signals of acute tightness in feed oats in either Germany or Ukraine, given the flat EXW/FCA prices in recent weeks. Open interest on nearby CBOT oat contracts remains modest, and intraday ranges are narrow, underlining the secondary nature of oats within the grain complex.
Weather remains the key short-term risk factor. In Europe, a second heatwave at the end of June could further pressure spring cereals in already stressed regions, but the current focus is more on wheat and barley than on oats. In contrast, the US Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies will be more decisive for oat yields later in the season; for now, broader grain markets are paying more attention to rainfall prospects in US spring wheat areas than to oats specifically.
Trading Outlook
- Short-term bias: mildly bullish for CBOT oats as long as European heat and slightly lower Russian wheat expectations keep overall grain sentiment supported.
- Flat physical prices in Germany and Ukraine suggest limited nearby tightness; end-users can still secure coverage on breaks rather than chasing rallies.
- Producers with unpriced oats may use the current firming in CBOT as an opportunity to lock in a portion of 2026/27 output, especially if further European heat or Black Sea headlines trigger additional rallies.
- Watch for changes in weather forecasts around the US Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies; any turn to sustained dryness there could give oats their own independent upside story.
3-Day Price Indication
- CBOT oats (nearby): likely to trade slightly firmer to sideways in the next three sessions, tracking wheat and broader grain risk sentiment.
- Germany EXW feed oats: prices expected to remain stable around current levels in the very short term.
- Ukraine FCA feed oats: no immediate catalyst for major price moves; sideways trend remains the base case.