Stable Oat Prices in Germany and Ukraine Despite Global Volatility

Feed oat prices in Germany and Ukraine are trading sideways into late June, decoupled from the recent rebound in global oat futures and largely reflecting balanced local supply and modest feed demand. In Germany, regional grain and feed markets report only mild movements in cereals, with oats staying in the lower part of recent price ranges as livestock demand remains cautious and overall feed grain supply is comfortable. In Ukraine, Black Sea grain logistics are dominated by wheat and corn, while oats play a minor role; available export capacity and stable regional demand are keeping offers broadly unchanged around Odesa, despite ongoing conflict-related risks and shifting Black Sea freight conditions.

Prices

Local feed oat indications remain flat this week:

• Germany (DE, EXW farm, feed oats): around 0.18 EUR/kg, unchanged over the past 10 days, keeping to the lower half of the June orientation range of about 11.85–16.45 EUR/100 kg reported for oats in northern Germany.
• Ukraine (UA, FCA Odesa, feed oats): around 0.25 EUR/kg, steady through June with no clear trend despite high volatility in international grain benchmarks.
• Global benchmark: CME/CBOT oats around 285 USD/bu on 25 June, up slightly day-on-day but still down more than 20% month-on-month and year-on-year, underlining a broadly weak global oat price environment.

Supply & Demand

In Germany, recent regional grain market reports describe a largely balanced feed grain situation. Wheat and barley remain the reference cereals, with only small price moves, suggesting no acute tightness in feed complexes and leaving limited room for a rally in feed oats. Oats continue to play a niche role in compound feed rations, and current price levels keep them competitive but not compelling enough to trigger major ration shifts.

Globally, the latest USDA feed outlook points to a notable recovery in world oat output in 2026/27, with production expected to rise by around 30% year-on-year, adding to available supplies in major exporting regions. This structural improvement caps upside in international oat prices and limits imported price pressure in both Germany and Ukraine. Black Sea logistics and market focus remain centred on wheat and corn exports; oats use only residual capacity, so spot oat values in Odesa mainly reflect local farm selling and regional demand rather than tight export pipelines.

Weather & Crop Conditions (DE, UA)

Weather in central and northern Germany during June has been generally favourable for spring crops, with moderate temperatures and manageable rainfall supporting cereal development and reducing immediate weather risk premia in grain prices. While oats are not separately highlighted, the benign pattern is consistent with stable yield expectations for minor cereals.

In Ukraine, the latest JRC MARS bulletin notes that winter cereals in western regions have suffered from earlier drought, but more recent rainfall and warmer temperatures since mid-May have stabilised prospects for spring crops. Although the report focuses on maize, sunflower and soybeans, the improved late-spring moisture regime also benefits spring-sown oats in many areas. Overall, weather does not currently justify a weather risk premium for feed oats in either Germany or Ukraine.

Fundamentals & Risk Drivers

• Macro grain context: European and German grain markets show marginal week-on-week moves in wheat, barley and rye, signalling comfortable supply going into the new crop and weighing on minor grains such as oats.
• Black Sea & conflict risk: Ongoing military activity and infrastructure strikes around the wider Black Sea region continue to pose background risk to Ukrainian exports and logistics, but recent reports focus on oil and military infrastructure rather than grain terminals, leaving day-to-day grain flows broadly functional.
• Global supply outlook: The expected expansion in global oat production for 2026/27, combined with still-depressed futures prices, suggests that any regional tightness in Germany or Ukraine is likely to be short-lived absent a major weather or logistics shock.

Trading Outlook (3–10 days)

• Germany (DE): With new crop approaching, favourable weather and no sign of acute feed grain tightness, feed oat prices are likely to remain in a narrow range around 0.18 EUR/kg EXW. Buyers can maintain hand-to-mouth coverage, while sellers face limited upside and may consider incremental pre-harvest sales on any small rally.
• Ukraine (UA): FCA Odesa feed oat values around 0.25 EUR/kg are expected to hold steady, supported by ongoing regional demand and functional export logistics. Export-oriented sellers should watch freight and security headlines, but only major disruptions are likely to move prices materially in the near term.
• Global reference: International oats futures remain weak despite the latest uptick, which limits upward pull on physical prices; short-term corrections are likely to stay within the recent volatility band unless a broader grain market shock emerges.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction

• Germany, feed oats (EXW): Sideways to slightly softer; trading expected to remain close to 0.18 EUR/kg with a mild downward bias if new-crop confidence strengthens.
• Ukraine, feed oats (FCA Odesa): Sideways; prices seen stable near 0.25 EUR/kg, with only limited sensitivity to global futures over the next three days.