German Feed Wheat Softens as Paris Futures Rebound Slightly

German feed wheat EXW Drentwede has eased slightly to around EUR 240/t, even as Paris milling wheat futures bounced back above EUR 240/t. The nearby cash market remains well supplied, with Black Sea offers keeping a lid on upside. In Germany, regional quotations show a broadly stable but slightly softer tone for feed wheat in mid‑September, as harvest pressure fades but export demand remains only moderate. Paris Euronext milling wheat (Dec‑26) recovered to the low‑240s EUR/t after last week’s dip, yet cash basis in northern Germany has weakened marginally as domestic supply is ample and compound feed demand seasonally quiet. Weather in Lower Saxony is largely dry and favourable for fieldwork, supporting logistics rather than adding new yield risk. Overall, the short‑term picture is one of sideways‑to‑slightly‑softer feed wheat prices unless fresh export or weather impulses emerge.

Prices

Latest indications for German feed wheat EXW Drentwede are about EUR 240/t, marginally below last week’s levels, reflecting a gentle downward correction after the early‑September peak around EUR 247/t.

On the futures side, Euronext Paris milling wheat December 2026 last traded near EUR 244/t on 16 September, up from around EUR 241/t on 15 September, signalling a modest rebound after last week’s lows near EUR 241–242/t.

German regional market reports confirm only small week‑on‑week moves, with Lower Saxony quotations described as mostly steady to slightly weaker compared with early September, in line with the easing seen in domestic cereal price overviews.

Supply & Demand

Domestic supply in northern Germany is comfortable after a largely completed winter wheat harvest, with no major quality problems reported in the latest state market updates.

At EU level, soft wheat export competition from the Black Sea remains intense, keeping a cap on Paris and thus on German export parity. Recent EU market commentary points to good availability in France and continued strong Russian export offers, limiting scope for a sustained rally.

On the demand side, German feed compounders are still in a seasonally moderate consumption phase, with some substitution between barley, wheat and maize depending on local price spreads. Earlier barley market reports already highlighted stable to softer feed grain complexes in early September, a pattern that now extends to wheat.

Weather & Logistics – Lower Saxony Focus

For the next three days in Lower Saxony, forecasts point to mostly dry or only light, scattered showers with mild temperatures and no significant frost risk. Such conditions favour grain movements from farm to elevators and support ongoing fieldwork for autumn sowing rather than posing yield threats at this late stage of the wheat marketing year.

Soil moisture is generally adequate after earlier rains, and with the main wheat harvest already completed, current weather is mainly a logistics and planting factor. This limits the potential for short‑term weather‑driven price spikes in the region.

Fundamentals & Basis

The spread between Paris milling wheat futures (≈EUR 244/t Dec‑26) and German feed wheat EXW (≈EUR 240/t for a lower grade) remains relatively narrow, suggesting a soft local basis once quality and logistics costs are taken into account.

EU‑wide cereal balance data point to comfortable wheat availability for 2026/27, with only moderate export growth. This, combined with large Black Sea export programmes, anchors expectations for a broadly balanced market rather than a tight one in the near term.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Producers (Germany): With EXW feed wheat around EUR 240/t and futures recovering slightly, consider incremental sales on small rallies towards EUR 245/t while keeping some volume unsold in case of export‑ or macro‑driven upside.
• Feed buyers: Current softness offers opportunities to extend cover modestly into Q4, especially if local cash trades dip below EUR 240/t, but avoid over‑coverage given balanced fundamentals.
• Traders: Monitor Paris–Germany basis; any further weakening of regional cash versus futures could open short‑futures / long‑physical basis plays, particularly in northern German locations.

3‑Day Directional View (Germany, DE)

• German feed wheat EXW (northwest): Slight downward bias (−1 to −2 EUR/t) amid good supply and benign weather.
• Euronext milling wheat futures: Sideways to mildly firmer, tracking global Black Sea and macro sentiment but capped by comfortable EU balances.
• Regional basis (DE vs Paris): Tendency to soften marginally if domestic cash weakens faster than futures.