German Triticale Drifts Sideways as Feed Demand Caps Downside

German triticale EXW Drentwede is trading narrowly lower, with a marginal week‑on‑week decline and no clear breakout on either side. Nearby support from firm feed grain values in northern Germany limits downside, while comfortable on‑farm availability after harvest restrains any meaningful rally. Feed grain markets in Germany remain relatively well supplied after a heat‑affected but largely completed 2026 harvest, with official assessments pointing to below‑potential wheat yields but reasonable coarse grain output in Lower Saxony and neighbouring regions. Domestic grain price reports show solid but not explosive levels for feed cereals, suggesting that compounders are still able to flex between wheat, barley, corn and triticale. Against this backdrop, triticale in Drentwede is oscillating in a tight band, tracking the broader German feed complex rather than any triticale‑specific shock.

Prices

Over the last two weeks, German triticale (feed grade, 14% moisture, origin DE) EXW Drentwede has moved in a very narrow range. The latest quotation on 21 September 2026 stands at 0.225 EUR/kg EXW, slightly below 0.226 EUR/kg seen on 18 September 2026 and broadly unchanged from mid‑month levels. This confirms a sideways pattern after a mild softening from early‑September highs.

Regional benchmarks support this picture: advisory price grids for September show German feed triticale in a solid medium band relative to barley and wheat, indicating neither acute oversupply nor shortage. Market participants report moderate farmer selling and selective buying by feed manufacturers, with limited spot premiums.

Supply & Demand

In Lower Saxony and across much of Germany, the 2026 grain harvest was constrained by summer heat, with official assessments highlighting reduced yield potential for wheat and rapeseed, while coarse grains and mixed cereals fared somewhat better. This pattern tends to stabilise demand for triticale in feed rations as a cost‑competitive alternative to tighter and more expensive wheat.

At EU level, triticale remains a niche crop but is increasingly valued in livestock rations for its protein and energy profile, with Germany and Poland key producers and regular cross‑border trade flows. Current German feed grain price reports show adequate supply of barley and corn, keeping compounders flexible and capping any aggressive bid for triticale in the short term.

Weather & Agronomy (DE)

Recent weather in northern Germany has shifted towards more moderate early‑autumn conditions after a hot, dry summer, with regional agencies noting that heat earlier in the season already locked in lower yield potential for some cereals. For triticale, the key focus now moves to soil moisture for autumn sowing rather than the 2026 harvest itself.

Forecasts for the coming days point to relatively stable temperatures and intermittent showers over Lower Saxony, supporting soil moisture recovery but not disrupting logistics. While this is broadly neutral for near‑term prices, it reduces weather‑related risk premia for the 2027 crop at this early stage, reinforcing the current sideways tone in physical markets.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Relative value vs. other feeds: German price grids place triticale at a discount to feed wheat and broadly in line with barley, making it attractive for hog and poultry rations without generating a sharp demand spike.
• Solid domestic supply: Despite heat‑related yield losses in some crops, coarse grain and mixed cereal output in Lower Saxony remains sufficient, preventing any structural deficit in triticale.
• Broader feed grain context: European grain market reports underline that total grains supply (wheat, barley, corn and minor cereals including triticale) is adequate in 2026/27, tempering upside for individual niche grains.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Producers (DE, region Drentwede): With EXW values stuck around 0.225 EUR/kg and no clear upside catalyst, consider incremental sales on small rallies, while keeping some tonnage available should feed grain markets firm later in Q4.
• Feed compounders: Current triticale prices offer competitive value vs. wheat; maintaining or slightly increasing inclusion rates can hedge against any later tightening in the wheat market.
• Merchants: Focus on margin through origination and logistics rather than flat‑price exposure; basis in northern Germany is stable and unlikely to widen significantly without a broader grain market move.

3‑Day Directional View (DE, physical Ex‑Farm)

• North Germany (incl. Drentwede): Sideways to slightly softer bias around 0.225 EUR/kg EXW, reflecting comfortable local supply and steady but unspectacular feed demand.
• Other German regions: Mostly stable, tracking the broader feed grain complex with only minor basis adjustments expected.