German Triticale Holds Steady as Feed Markets Stay Firm

German triticale prices in Drentwede remain stable, with only marginal easing from early September and no sign of sharp correction. Solid feed demand and a generally tight but not stressed EU grain balance are underpinning values, while nearby weather in northern Germany is benign and does not add weather risk. The current market is characterised by sideways pricing in a narrow band, modest regional price differences within Germany, and a firm overall EU-27 triticale environment. EU mixed-grain benchmarks and COCERAL’s latest crop forecast point to a smaller overall grain crop versus last year, which helps to support feed grains despite satisfactory local availability. Warm, dry but not extreme weather in Lower Saxony favours logistics and on-farm movements. For now, the main drivers are relative pricing versus wheat and barley, regional livestock demand, and cautious farmer selling rather than immediate weather or policy shocks.

Prices

The latest quotation for triticale feed grade (moisture 14% max), origin Germany, EXW Drentwede, stands at 0.225 EUR/kg EXW, unchanged over the last three trading days and roughly mid-range of the 0.222–0.23 EUR/kg band seen since early September. Regional German assessments and EU reference prices confirm a firm, but not overheated, triticale market supported by steady feed demand and adequate grain availability.

Other German regional quotations for triticale in the past week show slightly higher levels in southern and western Germany, indicating modest basis differences but confirming a generally firm national price structure. EU-27 triticale benchmarks have also moved higher year-on-year, underscoring broader strength in mixed grains.

Supply & Demand

COCERAL’s latest EU-27+UK grains forecast (September 22) reduces the total 2026 grain crop to 279.0 million tonnes, down almost 8 million tonnes from its July view and well below last year’s 307.4 million tonnes. While triticale is a small share of this total, tighter overall grain availability supports mixed grains used in feed rations.

EU analysis indicates a growing preference to feed triticale over other mixed grains due to its higher nutritional value, with Germany closely linked to Poland in cross-border mixed-grain and triticale flows. Recent German market reports still describe decent feed demand and adequate supply, without major logistical bottlenecks, helping to anchor prices in the current range.

Weather & Crop Conditions (DE)

The 3‑day outlook for Drentwede and wider Lower Saxony calls for mostly dry, warm conditions with highs around 20–25°C and cool nights, under varying cloud cover but no significant rainfall events. This pattern is favourable for farm operations, grain movement and storage, and does not introduce short-term yield or quality risks for already harvested triticale.

With harvest largely completed, weather mainly affects logistics and any remaining fieldwork for subsequent crops rather than triticale yield itself. In this context, the benign forecast is price-neutral to slightly supportive, as it facilitates deliveries without pushing farmers to sell aggressively.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• EU grains balance tighter: A reduced EU-27 grain crop versus last year underpins mixed grains and feed wheat, indirectly supporting German triticale.
• Feed demand stable: German and EU feed sector data still point to solid compound feed production, maintaining structural demand for triticale in rations.
• Relative pricing: Triticale maintains a discount versus milling wheat and often versus feed wheat, keeping it competitive for livestock producers and limiting downside as long as alternative grains remain firm.

Trading Outlook

• For farmers: With EXW Drentwede at 0.225 EUR/kg and no immediate bearish triggers, staged sales into strength make sense, especially where storage is tight. Consider holding a portion for Q4 in case feed grains tighten further.
• For feed buyers: The current sideways pattern offers an opportunity to secure nearby volumes at known levels. Given the tighter EU grains balance, consider modest coverage into October–November to hedge against any weather or logistics disruptions.
• For traders: Focus on regional basis opportunities between northern and southern Germany and cross-border flows with Poland, where demand for higher-nutrition mixed grains remains firm.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (DE)

• Drentwede EXW: Sideways bias expected around 0.225 EUR/kg over the next three days, with only minor intra-day fluctuations likely.
• Broader northern Germany: Stable to slightly firm tone as warm, dry weather aids logistics but does not yet trigger aggressive farmer selling.
• Southern/western Germany: Slightly stronger basis versus the north, but no sharp moves anticipated in the very short term.