German Triticale Feed Market Slips as Feed Grains Stay Firm

German feed-grade triticale prices in northern Germany are edging slightly lower but remain supported by firm feed grain markets and limited maize availability. Nearby EXW indications around Drentwede are drifting by a fraction of a cent, reflecting a market that is softening at the margin rather than breaking down. Across Germany, triticale is trading at a discount to feed wheat but broadly in line with other feed grains. Advisory and producer price data from several regions show triticale clustered in the mid- to high‑EUR 100s per tonne, while EU‑27 reference values sit modestly above German averages, underscoring Germany’s relatively competitive position in the bloc. Weather in Lower Saxony is mild and mixed over the next three days, offering good logistics conditions and little immediate yield risk.

Prices

Spot EXW indications for feed-grade triticale in northern Germany imply values around EUR 220–225/t, in line with recent offers and consistent with broader regional quotes. In North Rhine‑Westphalia, producer prices are reported around EUR 181–195/t in mid‑September, while Bavarian quotations cluster near EUR 160–170/t depending on location and quality. EU‑27 triticale references for Germany are around EUR 160–170/t, suggesting that current spot deals in export‑oriented northern ports carry a modest location and quality premium.

Supply & Demand

German triticale supply is ample after a solid 2026 harvest, with regional trial results confirming broadly satisfactory yields and quality in Lower Saxony. At EU level, cereals output remains comfortable despite some weather issues and reduced maize expectations. Recent market commentary highlights that maize availability in Europe is tighter than usual, while barley and wheat supplies are more than adequate.

This relative maize scarcity is pushing some feed demand into wheat and minor cereals, including triticale, especially in compound feed rations. Advisory bodies in Germany note that feed grain and milling by‑product prices have risen in recent weeks, although demand is still mainly hand‑to‑mouth as livestock producers cover only nearby needs. Triticale’s discount to feed wheat keeps it competitive in rations, but abundant barley and wheat ensure that no single feed cereal can fully dictate price direction.

Weather & Logistics (Region DE)

For Drentwede and the wider Lower Saxony region, the 3‑day outlook points to mostly cloudy skies, moderate daytime highs around 18–20°C and only scattered light showers. Such conditions are largely neutral for grain markets: the main harvest is complete, and the weather primarily affects logistics, not yields. Field access and truck loading should remain smooth, with no significant weather‑related delays expected for farm‑to‑store movements.

Looking slightly beyond the three‑day horizon, there are no indications of severe weather events that could disturb the flow of grain from farms to regional collection points or ports. The benign outlook therefore keeps the focus on demand and inter‑grain price relationships rather than on weather‑driven supply shocks.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Feed grain complex firm but off recent highs: Advisory data show that feed barley, wheat and triticale prices have firmed over late summer, driven by higher energy costs and tighter maize availability, yet some easing is now visible in barley and triticale as harvest pressure fades.
• Global backdrop mixed but supportive: USDA’s latest outlook trims global maize production for 2026/27, while boosting some wheat and barley estimates, leaving the overall feed grain balance comfortable but with a firmer floor under prices than in previous years.
• EU triticale competitively priced: EU‑27 reference prices place German triticale in the low‑ to mid‑EUR 160s per tonne, slightly below EU averages, suggesting limited export pull but solid domestic feed use.
• Substitution dynamics: With maize scarce and wheat facing strong export and domestic demand, feed mills are incentivised to keep or slightly increase triticale inclusion, especially where local availability is good.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–5 Days)

• Sellers (farmers, collectors): The slight softening in northern German EXW levels suggests limited downside but also muted near‑term upside. Consider selective forward selling on any short‑term rallies in related feed grains (wheat, barley) while keeping some triticale volumes unpriced for potential winter demand strength.
• Buyers (feed mills, traders): Current triticale discounts versus feed wheat and EU benchmarks offer value. Stagger purchases over the coming week to exploit any further harvest‑residual pressure, but avoid being under‑covered given maize tightness.
• Risk focus: Renewed disruptions to Black Sea grain flows or a sharper rally in maize could quickly re‑tighten the feed complex and lift triticale along with other cereals, while stronger livestock margins would support consumption.

3‑Day Price Indication – Germany (EUR)

• Northern Germany (incl. Drentwede, EXW): Mild downward bias; working range seen around EUR 218–225/t over the next three days, barring major moves in wheat or barley.
• Western Germany (NRW, free store): Largely sideways in the EUR 180–195/t band, with small location‑specific adjustments possible as buyers fine‑tune coverage.
• Southern Germany (Bavaria, free store): Stable to slightly firmer near EUR 160–170/t, supported by regional demand and relatively lower starting levels.