German triticale softens but stays supported by firm feed demand

German triticale prices in Lower Saxony are edging slightly lower but remain well supported by firm feed demand and a generally tight cereal balance after a mixed 2026 harvest. The current drift reflects pressure from softer feed wheat and barley, rather than any abrupt shift in local fundamentals. In north‑west Germany, producer indications for triticale mostly sit in the upper EUR 170s to low 190s per tonne ex farm, with Lower Saxony trading at a modest premium to national averages on strong livestock demand and earlier harvest concerns. Benign early‑autumn weather in Drentwede is neutral for yields but positive for logistics, allowing a steady flow of grain to market without triggering panic selling. Over the coming days, prices are likely to track the broader German feed grain complex, with only limited downside as long as pig and poultry feed demand holds firm.

Prices

In Drentwede (EXW farm), feed‑grade triticale at 14% max moisture is currently indicated around EUR 225–230/t, having eased by roughly EUR 5/t from the early‑September peak while still trading above late‑August levels. This places Lower Saxony slightly above producer ranges of about EUR 176–190/t reported for parts of North Rhine‑Westphalia, consistent with a regional premium in the north‑west.

On a national reference basis, indicative German triticale values for fodder use stand near EUR 164–202/t (16.40–20.25 €/100 kg) in September, underlining that Drentwede trades toward the upper end of the domestic spectrum. The slight softening in recent days mirrors the broader feed grain complex, where feed wheat and barley have given back part of their early‑month gains on calmer international markets and improved crop prospects in key exporting regions.

Supply & Demand

Germany’s 2026 harvest report points to a slightly below‑average cereal crop, with mixed grains including triticale affected by regional dryness earlier in the season. This has kept triticale availability relatively tight in north‑west Germany despite the usual post‑harvest selling window. At the same time, international supply has improved marginally, with upgraded wheat production forecasts (e.g. in Australia) easing some global price pressure on feed grains as a whole.

On the demand side, livestock producers, particularly in pig and poultry sectors, continue to show steady interest in triticale for feed rations thanks to its competitive pricing against wheat and barley. Domestic feed compounders in northern Germany are reported to blend triticale where logistics are favourable, which helps absorb local supply and supports prices in regions like Lower Saxony and Bremen. Cross‑border flows from major mixed‑grain producer Poland into Germany remain structurally important but have not surged enough in recent days to loosen the local balance materially.

Weather & Logistics (Region: DE)

For Drentwede and surrounding Lower Saxony, the 3‑day outlook (15–17 September) calls for mostly dry to partly cloudy conditions, with daytime highs moderating from about 26°C to around 19–20°C and only brief, light showers possible mid‑week. This pattern is benign for stored grain quality and supports smooth farm‑to‑elevator logistics, allowing scheduled truck movements without major interruptions.

Because the 2026 cereal harvest is largely completed, current weather has minimal direct impact on yields but can influence short‑term selling behaviour. The absence of heavy rainfall reduces concerns about storage issues and so does not force farmers to accelerate sales, which in turn helps maintain a relatively firm price floor for triticale in the region.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Harvest & stocks: A slightly smaller German cereal harvest and modest on‑farm triticale stocks in the north‑west underpin a tighter local balance compared with central and southern regions.
• Feed complex correlation: Triticale remains closely linked to feed wheat and barley; recent minor price slippage reflects softness in these benchmarks rather than a structural shift in triticale demand.
• International backdrop: Upgraded global wheat production estimates and calmer Black Sea flows have eased upside risk across feed grains but have not translated into a sharp correction in German triticale so far.
• Regional premiums: North‑west Germany, including Lower Saxony and Bremen, continues to command a premium over national averages due to concentrated livestock demand and earlier weather‑related harvest worries.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the next three trading days, triticale in Drentwede is expected to move broadly sideways within a narrow range, with a mild downward bias should feed wheat and barley continue to ease. Overall, the market tone remains firm, with price dips likely to attract renewed feed buying rather than trigger a sustained sell‑off.

• Producers (Lower Saxony): Consider scaling in sales on rallies above roughly EUR 230/t EXW while avoiding aggressive selling into minor dips, given the still‑supportive feed demand.
• Feed buyers / livestock integrators: Use any retracement toward the low EUR 220s/t EXW in Drentwede to extend nearby coverage, especially if exposed to potential volatility in feed wheat and barley.
• Traders: Watch the feed wheat and barley curves and CIF Cologne indications; further softening there could cap triticale in the region, but strong basis levels in north‑west Germany suggest limited downside in the immediate term.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR/t, EXW)

• Drentwede, DE: ≈ 223–228 EUR/t, stable to slightly softer, tracking feed wheat/barley.
• North‑west Germany (average): ≈ 180–195 EUR/t, broadly steady with limited downside as long as feed demand holds.
• Southern / central Germany (reference): Slightly below north‑west levels, with prices expected to remain broadly unchanged in the very short term.