Global Wheat Prices Hold Firm Amid Supply Pressure; Ukraine Sees Continued Increase

Despite Challenges, Ukrainian Wheat Market Shows Resilience

In Ukraine, purchase prices for food wheat surged by $5-8/t to $165-170/t  due to a shortage of offers, while prices for fodder wheat remained stable at $145-148/t. However, prices in hryvnia increased by 100-200 UAH/t to 6250-6350 UAH/t, driven by a rise in the dollar exchange rate by 1.5%.

Export of wheat from Ukraine for March 1-18 reached 1.13 million tons, a 15.8% increase compared to last year. In total, 12.9 million tons of wheat were exported in 2023/24, marking a 5% rise over the previous year.

While global wheat prices remained largely unchanged, May futures saw a rise in various markets. Soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago increased by 2.7%, hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City rose by 1.3%, hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis increased by 0.7%, and wheat futures on Paris Euronext saw a 1.1% rise.

European wheat prices are supported by forecasts of reduced crop production in the EU and worsening crops in France. Experts lowered the forecast of soft wheat production in the EU for 2024/25 by 1 million tons to 121.6 million tons.

In France, soft wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased to 66%, the lowest figure in four years, due to fall rains reducing winter wheat acreage and excessive rainfall in March potentially affecting spring wheat and barley acreage.

Similarly, heavy rains in Great Britain led to a 15% decrease in wheat sowing area compared to last year, reaching the lowest figure since 2020, as reported by AHDB.

Meanwhile, USDA’s US Crop Tour data showed varying conditions across US states, with improvements noted in some areas compared to previous years.

In China, wheat imports declined by 17% in January-February compared to 2023, impacting global wheat prices despite forecasts of reduced supply in the new season. Despite challenges, wheat prices are gradually inching up amid expectations of a tighter market in the coming months.

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