Chinese Competition Triggers Sharp Raisin Price Correction in India

Raisin prices in India have turned sharply lower after a steep single‑session drop in Delhi’s wholesale market, driven by aggressively priced Chinese-origin supply. Domestic and Afghan-origin sellers are under pressure to match lower levels or absorb margin compression, suggesting a weak-to-sideways price outlook over the next 2–4 weeks. The correction comes in a seasonally soft demand window after India’s spring wedding peak, with broadly stable end-consumption but highly price-sensitive buying behavior. Chinese raisins, routed into India at very competitive prices, are effectively capping what domestic producers from Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, as well as Afghan and Iranian shippers, can charge. While European and Turkish offers remain relatively stable in EUR terms, India has become the most visibly soft market, improving short-term import opportunities for offshore buyers but creating inventory risk for holders in Delhi.

Prices & Spreads

In Delhi’s dry fruit wholesale trade, raisins registered one of the steepest moves of the current week, with a decline of about $10.54 per 40 kg in a single session. This pushed domestic desi raisins down to roughly $184.36–$205.44 per 40 kg, while foreign-origin lots were indicated around $221.23–$231.77 per 40 kg, both forced lower to stay competitive against Chinese arrivals.

Converted into EUR per kg (using an approximate rate of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR), the Delhi wholesale levels correspond to about 4.24–4.73 EUR/40 kg for the price drop and roughly 4.24–4.73 EUR/kg equivalent for domestic and 5.08–5.31 EUR/kg for foreign-origin stock. At the same time, export-oriented offers show far flatter week-on-week moves: Turkish sultanas from Malatya trade around 2.10–2.30 EUR/kg FOB/CIF, while Chinese sultanas in Northwest Europe are indicated near 2.10–2.17 EUR/kg FCA, keeping global benchmarks broadly steady even as India corrects.

Supply & Demand Dynamics

India’s raisin market is structurally supplied by domestic production in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, complemented by imports from Afghanistan and Iran and, increasingly, competitively priced Chinese raisins. When Chinese-origin product is offered aggressively, as seen in the latest Delhi session, it acts as a hard ceiling on achievable prices for both domestic and traditional import origins.

On the demand side, underlying consumption in India remains broadly stable, supported by use in confectionery, mithai, bakery applications and direct snacking. However, buyers at retail and wholesale level are largely indifferent to origin in mainstream segments. This lack of origin loyalty amplifies price competition: once Chinese material becomes the cheapest acceptable-quality option, volumes readily switch away from higher-priced Indian and Afghan lots, forcing rapid price realignment.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Trader sentiment in India is cautious. Holders of domestic and premium Afghan/Iranian stock face a difficult choice between matching Chinese prices and accepting much thinner margins, or holding inventory in the hope that Chinese inflows moderate. Some are opting to store product rather than sell into current weakness, but this raises carry and quality risks if competitive Chinese supply persists into the early monsoon period.

Globally, supply remains adequate, with major producers such as Türkiye, India, Iran, the U.S. and China all carrying comfortable stocks into the 2025/26 season. Recent reports highlight that India’s yellow raisin prices had already softened by roughly 500 INR per quintal earlier in May, and the latest Delhi drop marks an acceleration of that trend rather than an isolated move. For European buyers, relatively stable FCA/FOB offers from Turkey, China and Chile, combined with softer India-linked quotations in EUR, translate into a buyer-friendly environment in the near term.

Weather & Short-Term Outlook

Weather in India’s key raisin belts in Maharashtra is shifting toward pre-monsoon conditions, but near-term availability is dominated by existing stocks rather than fresh arrivals. As a result, the immediate price trajectory hinges more on trade flows and import competition than on weather-driven supply shocks.

Over the next 2–4 weeks, raisin prices in India are likely to remain under pressure or, at best, stabilise at the newly corrected levels. Any sustained relief would probably require either a reduction in Chinese shipments into India or the emergence of quality concerns around Chinese-origin material, which could restore some pricing power to domestic and Afghan-origin sellers. Until then, the market is set to trade defensively, with narrow upside potential.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Indian buyers (wholesalers/retail chains): Use current weakness to secure short- to medium-term coverage in standard grades, but avoid overstocking in segments that directly compete with Chinese-origin product, given ongoing downside risk.
• Exporters from India: Consider selectively pricing to move inventory, especially in grades that overlap with Chinese offers, while protecting premium, differentiated qualities (e.g., specialty golden or regional GI-linked raisins) from excessive discounting.
• European industrial users: Maintain a diversified origin mix with added exposure to India for value, but keep Turkish and EU-stored stocks in the portfolio to hedge against any sudden disruption in overland Afghan/Iranian flows.
• Speculative/merchant positions: Near-term bias remains mildly bearish to sideways for India-linked values; be cautious with long carry unless there are clear signs of tightening Chinese supply or rising seasonal demand.

3-Day Directional View (EUR Perspective)

• India (FOB/FCA New Delhi): Sideways to slightly softer in EUR, with exporters testing lower offers to stimulate demand amid Chinese competition.
• Turkey (FOB Malatya): Largely stable in the 2.10–2.30 EUR/kg band; only limited downward pressure from Indian corrections expected in the next few days.
• China to EU (FCA Hamburg/Rotterdam): Stable around 2.10–2.17 EUR/kg; Chinese-origin raisins remain the key benchmark capping upside for competing origins.