Chickpeas Rally on Tight Indian Supply and Kabuli Shock

Prices for chickpeas are moving decisively higher, led by Indian markets where a structural tightening in supply is now clearly visible. With imports slowing, alternative pulses remaining uncompetitive and Kabuli chickpea output sharply lower in key origins, the market bias over the next two to four weeks remains firmly bullish. Chickpeas in Delhi have risen for four consecutive sessions as dal mills maintain steady procurement while both domestic arrivals and import flows thin out. Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh-origin chickpeas are edging higher, Kabuli grades are posting stronger gains, and Australian offers for near-term shipment are also firming. At the same time, elevated tariffs on yellow peas, conflict-driven production losses in Iran and weaker Kabuli output in India are tightening global availability. Any short-term profit-taking is likely to produce only shallow corrections within a rising market.

Prices & Spreads

Delhi wholesale markets continue to grind higher, with Rajasthan-origin chickpeas now around $62.24–$62.50 per quintal, and Madhya Pradesh lots at roughly $61.72–$62.24 per quintal after the latest $1.56 per quintal increase. Jaipur-line chickpeas are trading in a similar $62.24–$62.50 per quintal band, underlining the broad-based firmness across key desi chana streams.

Kabuli chickpeas are outperforming. Medium-grade Kabuli in Delhi has added about $2.08 per quintal, trading near $68.75–$72.92 per quintal, while retail prices have moved up to roughly $66.67–$67.71 per kilogram. Australian chickpeas for June–July shipment are quoted around $6.30–$6.35 per ton CFR Chennai, signalling that exporters expect the current strength to persist and are pricing in continued tightness in available supply.

On the export side, recent offers translated into euros show Indian chickpeas (FOB New Delhi, 10–12 mm counts) broadly in a range of about EUR 0.75–1.10 per kg equivalent, while Mexican-origin Kabuli grades are trading at a premium, near EUR 0.95–1.35 per kg FOB, reflecting stronger demand for large-sized beans and higher freight and risk premia.

Supply & Demand Drivers

The central driver of the current rally is a structural tightening in Indian supply. Import pipelines from Australia have slowed dramatically: shipments fell from 640,181 metric tons in October–December 2025 to only 6,979 tons in March 2026, leaving port inventories significantly lower and removing the overhang that had capped price gains. With less imported material to weigh on markets, local arrivals now do more to set the tone.

On the demand side, dal processing mills continue to buy steadily, as chickpeas remain a staple input for split dal production. Substitution toward alternative pulses is constrained. Yellow peas, the main competitor in Indian dal processing, face a 30% import duty, which, combined with a rupee above 96 per dollar, leaves them at a clear cost disadvantage. This policy-driven barrier is effectively locking in more demand for domestic chickpeas and reinforcing the tightening effect from weaker imports.

Kabuli Segment & Geopolitics

The Kabuli segment is under particular pressure. Iran and neighbouring Middle Eastern producers have experienced significantly reduced Kabuli chickpea output this year amid the ongoing conflict, which has disrupted on-farm activities, logistics and export flows. At the same time, Indian Kabuli production is expected at only about 1.8–2.0 million metric tons, far below last year’s 3.1 million metric tons, implying a substantial year-on-year deficit.

With Middle Eastern stocks reportedly depleted and Brazilian inventories also described as thin, the global balance for Kabuli chickpeas looks tight. For now, ongoing geopolitical disruption to shipping in and around the Middle East is suppressing some buying interest, particularly from Europe and North Africa. However, exporters in Indian hubs such as Indore and Bhopal are already securing supplies in anticipation of renewed demand as shipping conditions normalise, suggesting that once logistics improve, the latent import demand could quickly translate into higher export prices.

Weather & External Factors

Weather in key chickpea regions is not currently the dominant driver compared with policy and conflict factors, but it remains an important background risk. Any late-season heat or unseasonal rains in Indian producing states could further trim yield expectations, adding another layer of support to prices. Similarly, moisture deficits in Australian or Mediterranean planting zones over the coming months would likely constrain new-crop supply and keep the forward curve supported.

Beyond weather, the broader Iran conflict continues to raise freight, insurance and energy costs along Middle Eastern routes, indirectly supporting chickpea prices through higher logistics costs and uncertainty. These dynamics are particularly relevant for Kabuli flows from Iran and neighbouring exporters to Europe and the Gulf, and they help explain why global buyers are reassessing origin diversification and forward coverage strategies.

Short-Term Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

Across both desi and Kabuli segments, the directional outlook for the next two to four weeks remains clearly upward. The combination of thinning imports, lower port stocks, policy barriers for yellow peas and reduced Kabuli output in Iran and India creates a firm fundamental floor. Traders report some caution on large speculative positions, but this reflects elevated price levels rather than any deterioration in underlying fundamentals.

Short bouts of profit-taking are possible given the speed of the recent rally, especially if any temporary easing in freight or currency markets occurs. However, such dips are likely to be limited and short-lived as dal processors, exporters and stockists use them to secure coverage. Overall, the risk profile is skewed toward further price strength rather than meaningful downside, particularly in Kabuli grades and higher-quality desi lots.

Trading & Procurement Guidance

• Importers in Europe and MENA: Consider advancing purchases of Kabuli and higher-count desi chickpeas, as global availability is tightening and renewed shipping normalisation could trigger a second leg higher in export prices.
• Dal processors in India: Use any short-term price corrections to extend physical coverage, especially for Kabuli and Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh-origin lots, given the sharp drop in imports and duty-driven constraints on yellow pea substitution.
• Producers and stockists: Maintain a measured bullish stance; avoid over-selling forward, particularly in Kabuli, as structural supply tightness and geopolitical risk argue for sustained firmness into the medium term.
• Buyers exposed to Australian origin: Monitor June–July CFR offers closely; current levels suggest further upside is being priced in, but any temporary improvement in freight or conflict-related risk premia could offer brief buying opportunities.

3-Day Directional Outlook (Key Regions)

• India (Delhi wholesale, desi & Kabuli): Mild upward bias as dal mill demand persists and arrivals stay thin; shallow dips likely to be well bid.
• Australia export market: Stable to slightly firmer sentiment for June–July shipment as global buyers probe availability ahead of renewed Middle Eastern and European interest.
• Europe (import parity, Kabuli): Steady to moderately higher as buyers reassess coverage in light of tighter Iranian and Indian supply and ongoing freight uncertainty.