Chickpea Market: Delhi Softens, But Structural Tightness Points Higher

Chickpea prices in Delhi have eased on the back of slower dal mill buying and stockist profit‑taking, but the downside appears limited as imports fall, arrivals shrink and substitute yellow peas stay costly. The market bias over the next 2–4 weeks remains cautiously firm, with dips seen as buying opportunities rather than the start of a deeper correction.

In India’s key wholesale hubs, domestic chickpea offerings have been marked slightly lower, even as underlying fundamentals tighten. Imports have dropped sharply year-on-year, port stocks are thinning, and government procurement at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) has not triggered heavy farmer selling in Maharashtra. With Australian chickpea offers steady and yellow pea inflows constrained by higher duty and a weaker rupee, downstream flour mills are expected to rebuild coverage into the consumption season, gradually shifting the balance back in favour of firmer prices into mid-June.

Prices & Short-Term Moves

Delhi chickpea prices softened on Thursday as dal processing mills cut back fresh purchases and stockists booked profits. Rajasthan-line lots slipped by about $0.52 to roughly $61.40–$61.66 per 100 kg, while Madhya Pradesh-line parcels traded around $60.88–$61.14, and Jaipur-line material at $61.14–$61.40 per 100 kg. Despite this adjustment, most traders consider the pullback modest in the context of the broader uptrend.

Export and FOB indications corroborate the picture of only mild softness. Recent offers for Indian desi chickpeas in New Delhi sit near EUR 0.73–0.97/kg depending on size and delivery terms, after edging down by roughly EUR 0.02–0.04/kg over the first half of May. Mexican kabuli chickpeas remain at a premium, averaging about EUR 0.75–1.15/kg FOB Mexico City, also slightly lower than earlier in the month but still well above Indian values, which limits substitution from that origin.

Supply & Demand Balance

The immediate drag on prices is reduced mill buying, with many processors opting for hand-to-mouth coverage after previous run-ups. However, structural indicators point to tightening supply: India’s chickpea imports in FY 2025–26 fell 33% to about 1.007 million tonnes from 1.506 million tonnes a year earlier, and port inventories of imported material have thinned noticeably. Australian chickpeas for June–July shipment are quoted around $605–$610 per tonne CIF and are described as steady rather than aggressively cheaper.

On the domestic side, daily arrivals into wholesale mandis are running lower than earlier in the season, suggesting that the bulk of farmer selling may be behind us. The central government has extended procurement and raised volume targets for Maharashtra under MSP, but mandi arrivals there have nonetheless dropped sharply, implying tighter farmer-held stocks than previously assumed. With yellow pea imports—an important flour substitute—also curtailed by the 30% duty and rupee weakness raising landed costs, demand is expected to pivot back towards chickpeas as the consumption season progresses.

Fundamentals & Policy Backdrop

The broader pulse complex in India is operating under an environment of constrained import availability and cautious end-user demand. Recent official data confirm that total pulse imports are down over 30% year-on-year, reflecting both government policy efforts and measured offtake. Within this mix, chickpeas stand out as relatively tight, given India’s role as a key producer and consumer and the moderation in shipments from Australia and Canada.

Weather-wise, northwest and central India, including major chickpea-growing belts in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, are currently under a heatwave pattern with limited pre-monsoon rainfall, but this comes after harvest and primarily affects storage, logistics and short-term demand rather than 2025–26 crop yields. Near-term fundamentals will therefore be driven more by policy (MSP operations, import tariffs), currency moves and trade flows than by new crop news. Importantly, the progressive liquidation by stockists appears largely spent, reducing the risk of another wave of forced selling into any minor rally.

2–4 Week Outlook

The market outlook into mid-June is "cautiously firm." The main swing factor is mill buying: if processors return to the market to lock in coverage while imports remain expensive and arrivals constrained, Delhi prices are likely to retest or slightly exceed recent highs rather than slip materially lower. Conversely, any renewed lull in demand could keep prices range-bound, but the scope for deeper downside appears limited at current levels.

• Bias: Mildly bullish over 2–4 weeks, with dips more likely to attract buying than trigger heavy liquidation.
• Key supports: Lower imports, thin port stocks, constrained yellow pea inflows, and reduced mandi arrivals in Maharashtra and other key states.
• Risks: A sudden revival in imports, unexpected policy changes on pea or chickpea duties, or a sharper-than-expected slowdown in domestic consumption.

Trading & Procurement Strategy

• Flour mills / end-users: Use current softness to gradually build coverage for June–July needs instead of waiting for deeper declines that fundamentals do not justify.
• Importers: Be selective with Australian and other origins at $605–$610/t CIF; parity remains tight given rupee weakness and India’s softer but firm underlying domestic basis.
• Stockists: With major profit-taking largely completed, consider reaccumulating on any further dips, focusing on well-located physical stocks where mandi arrivals are clearly thinning.

3-Day Directional Outlook (in EUR terms)

• Delhi (desi chickpeas, FOB/FCA): Stable to slightly firmer in EUR, as local prices consolidate and INR remains soft.
• Export offers, India (kabuli/desi mix): Sideways; narrow EUR softness possible from FX, but fundamental floor remains intact.
• Mexico FOB kabuli: Mostly steady in EUR, holding a wide premium over Indian origins and limiting its role in price discovery for South Asian buyers.