Chickpeas market firms as India’s imports shrink and port stocks thin

Indian and global chickpea markets are quietly turning more bullish, with Indian spot values edging higher on tightening physical availability and shrinking import channels. Domestic prices are expected to grind up over the next 2–4 weeks, supported by lower imports, thinner mandi arrivals and depleted port inventories, while upside is moderated by cautious, hand-to-mouth mill buying. Underlying sentiment has shifted from neutral to constructively firm. In key Indian mandis, kabuli chickpeas have led gains, while desi grades are holding a higher floor as imports of both chickpeas and substitute yellow peas drop sharply year on year. Internationally, old-crop balances in North America are also tightening, reinforcing a global floor under prices. For European and Mediterranean buyers, the near-term risk now skews to the upside, with limited relief likely before the next Northern Hemisphere harvest.

Prices & Regional Dynamics

Indian wholesale chickpea prices started the week on a firmer note. In Delhi, Rajasthan-origin chickpeas held around USD 62.67–62.93 per 100 kg, while Madhya Pradesh-origin material traded slightly lower near USD 62.15–62.41. The Jaipur line in Rajasthan quoted roughly USD 62.41–62.67, indicating a relatively tight and stable cash market across major origins.

The strongest intraday move came from Hapur in Uttar Pradesh, where values rose by about USD 0.52 per 100 kg to USD 62.93–63.46 as dal mills stepped in with fresh buying. Jaipur recorded an even sharper gain of around USD 1.05 per 100 kg, and kabuli chickpeas in particular jumped by more than USD 2 to about USD 90.20–99.65, underlining strong demand for larger-grain, higher-quality product.

On the import parity side, Australian chickpeas remain steady around USD 605–610 per tonne, providing a reference ceiling for Indian buyers. Converting to EUR and per‑kg terms (using an indicative rate 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR), this equates to roughly EUR 0.56–0.56/kg CIF-equivalent. By comparison, recent export and FCA offers out of New Delhi for desi chickpeas in the 10–12 mm range translate to approximately EUR 0.67–0.75/kg, confirming India’s role as a relatively firm-priced origin.

Current export indications in EUR for key grades (FOB/FCA, rounded) include:

(All EUR values are approximate conversions from recent USD-denominated and EUR-denominated offers, rounded for clarity.)

Supply & Demand Drivers

Two structural shifts are tightening India’s chickpea balance. First, chickpea imports in the 2025–26 financial year dropped by 33%, to about 1.01 million tonnes from 1.51 million tonnes the year before. Second, yellow pea imports – the key substitute for chickpeas in many applications – have collapsed by nearly 49%, to about 1.11 million tonnes from 2.17 million.

This collapse in yellow pea inflows is crucial. With a 30% import duty on yellow peas and a weak rupee inflating landed costs, the economics of substitution have turned unfavourable. The practical effect is that demand, which previously could toggle between yellow peas and chickpeas, is now being pushed firmly back towards domestic chickpeas, tightening the available pool of supply even without outright shortages.

On the domestic side, market participants report that daily mandi arrivals in India’s major producing states have thinned, while incoming chickpea shipments at ports have slowed visibly. Port inventories are drawn down, and although physical spot markets still look outwardly stable, the underlying availability is increasingly tight. This creates a quiet but solid bullish foundation beneath the market, especially if new-crop expectations disappoint.

Globally, North American exporters also face tighter old-crop chickpea balances. Forward coverage by major importers and a lack of aggressive selling from origin are limiting offers for prompt shipment, reinforcing a higher global floor. In combination with the Indian situation, this reduces the likelihood of any significant downside in international chickpea prices in the near term.

Fundamentals & Weather Context

Trader sentiment within India has shifted from defensive to cautiously constructive. Dal processing mills are still buying largely on a need-only basis, which tempers the pace of any rally and prevents sharp spikes. However, the broader trade increasingly expects domestic chickpea output to fall short of last year’s harvest, making current spot levels appear more like a base than a peak.

Port stock drawdowns, thinner arrivals and reduced import flows collectively tighten the fundamental balance. As long as the 30% duty on yellow peas remains and the rupee stays relatively weak, substitute channels are unlikely to reopen meaningfully. This structural backdrop supports further gradual price appreciation rather than a sharp correction, especially as old-crop hands over to new-crop in other exporting regions.

Weather-wise, the short-term outlook in key chickpea-growing regions of India and North America will mainly affect planting progress and early crop prospects rather than immediate availability. With old-crop stocks already tight, any emerging weather-related risks to the next harvest would quickly translate into firmer forward prices and more aggressive nearby coverage by importers.

Price Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

Given the structurally lighter import program, depleted port inventories and reduced availability of yellow pea substitutes, chickpea prices are likely to “grind higher” over the next two to four weeks rather than spike. The downside appears relatively well protected as long as no unexpected policy changes or sudden surge in arrivals occurs.

Upside potential is moderated chiefly by the cautious tempo of mill buying. Processors are reluctant to chase prices aggressively, preferring to buy on dips or in small lots. This behaviour should result in a stair-step pattern of gradual gains, punctuated by brief consolidations when domestic demand pauses or small pockets of supply emerge.

For European and Mediterranean buyers, this means replacement costs in EUR are more likely to creep up than retreat into June. Large-calibre kabuli from origins like Mexico and India is expected to remain at a notable premium to smaller sizes, reflecting strong demand from retail and foodservice segments and limited high-quality availability.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers / Food manufacturers: Consider advancing coverage for the next 4–8 weeks, especially for larger-calibre kabuli grades, as prices are biased higher and structural tightness limits downside. Stagger purchases to smooth volatility but avoid waiting for significant corrections.
• Dal mills and domestic processors in India: Maintain need-based buying but be prepared for a gradual rise in procurement costs. Using small, frequent purchases may help manage price risk while avoiding being caught short if mandi arrivals thin further.
• Producers and stockists: Current fundamentals favour holding some inventory rather than aggressive selling. However, consider scaling out of positions into price strength, particularly if weather and planting progress in other exporting regions improve and ease forward tightness.
• Traders and arbitrageurs: Monitor spreads between Indian domestic prices, Australian import parity and Mexican offers. The narrowing of these spreads in EUR terms suggests limited room for downside arbitrage, but opportunities may emerge on temporary basis when freight or FX moves sharply.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR Perspective)

• India (FOB/FCA New Delhi, desi grades): Slightly firmer bias in EUR terms, supported by thinning arrivals and a steady rupee. Expect a mild upward to sideways trend over the next three days.
• Mexico (FOB Mexico City, kabuli grades): Stable to marginally firmer, with large-calibre product maintaining a clear premium to Indian origins. Limited nearby supply keeps offers supported.
• Global benchmarks (import parity into Mediterranean/Europe): Steady to slightly higher in EUR as Indian and North American tightness feed through, with buyers likely to step in on any minor dips rather than wait for deeper corrections.