Raisin Market: Sluggish Demand Pressures Dollar Prices Despite Strong Exports

Dollar-denominated raisin prices remain under downward pressure even as weekly exports reached 2,970 tons as of May 23, about 270 tons above last year. The combination of stronger shipments and weaker prices points to a demand side that is currently sluggish, amplified by the start of the long holiday period. The market tone is thus mixed: export flows are healthy, but spot activity is slow and buyers are resisting higher offers. In Turkey, sultana prices in EUR appear broadly stable on recent weeks, with only marginal movements across grades and delivery terms. Weather in the core Manisa/Alaşehir raisin region looks seasonally warm with scattered showers into the weekend, not yet a major factor for supply. With speculative interest limited and downstream demand muted, the near-term bias remains slightly soft in dollar terms, while EUR indications are more sideways for now.

Prices & Exports

Weekly raisin exports as of May 23 totaled 2,970 tons, up roughly 10% year-on-year (about 270 tons higher), confirming solid shipment momentum despite the holiday slowdown. At the same time, sellers report that dollar-based sales prices continue to edge lower, indicating that this export strength is coming at the cost of reduced FOB prices rather than a tightening market.

Current indicative wholesale levels in EUR show Turkish sultanas (Malatya) broadly steady over May, with type 9 grade A around EUR 2.15/kg FOB and type 8 around EUR 2.10/kg FOB. CIF offers for Turkish RTU type 9 are about EUR 2.13/kg, while organic sultanas type 9 remain at a premium near EUR 3.10/kg FOB. Chinese standard sultanas in Europe are quoted near EUR 2.12–2.24/kg FCA, offering alternative supply at comparable levels.

Supply, Demand & Holiday Effect

On the supply side, the increase in weekly exports compared to last year suggests that origin stocks remain ample and exporters are willing to commit volume at lower dollar prices. There are no acute supply disruptions reported at origin, and competition from China and India in standard qualities continues to cap any attempt to raise offer levels meaningfully.

Demand, however, has been sluggish with the onset of the long holiday period, particularly in key destination markets where buying decisions are delayed. This slowdown in spot and prompt inquiries is the main reason why exporters accept lower dollar prices, even as shipment volumes stay robust. Downstream buyers are well covered in the short term and are in no hurry to extend coverage at higher levels.

Weather Outlook in Key Growing Region

In Manisa and surrounding raisin-growing districts, forecasts for May 28–31 indicate a mix of moderate rain and sunny intervals, with daytime highs generally between the mid‑20s and low‑30s °C and occasional heavier showers around May 28–29. This pattern is typical for late May and does not currently imply significant stress for vineyards.

Assuming this outlook verifies and is followed by seasonally warm and drier conditions into June, the weather impact on short‑term supply expectations should remain neutral. Market participants will nevertheless monitor any persistence of heavy rainfall that could complicate vineyard management or disease pressure later in the season.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Exports: Weekly shipments at 2,970 tons, 270 tons above last year, confirm that logistical flows are smooth and that international buyers continue to lift contracted volumes.
• Prices: Ongoing decline in dollar-denominated sales points to buyers’ pricing power and a still-comfortable global balance; converted into EUR, prices appear more range-bound due to currency effects.
• Competition: Alternative origins (China, India, Chile, Africa) provide overlapping qualities in the EUR 1.80–2.50/kg band, limiting upside for Turkish sultanas in the near term.
• Macro backdrop: Broader softening in agricultural commodity sentiment and steady freight costs keep delivered prices relatively contained, reinforcing the current sideways-to-soft tone.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• For importers: The combination of soft dollar prices and sluggish spot demand favours cautious scale‑down buying rather than aggressive forward coverage; focus on opportunistic purchases in standard grades while maintaining flexibility for later in the season.
• For packers/industry buyers: With EUR prices broadly stable and no immediate weather threat, consider extending coverage modestly on preferred origins where quality is proven, but avoid chasing the market higher.
• For exporters/origin sellers: Maintain price discipline where possible, but be prepared for continued buyer resistance during the holiday lull; differentiating by quality and service will be key to preserving margins in a soft dollar environment.

Over the next three days, EUR-denominated price indications for Turkish sultanas type 8–9 from Malatya are expected to remain broadly stable in a range around EUR 2.10–2.20/kg FOB, with limited volatility given the holiday-slowed trade. CIF RTU offers should likewise trade sideways near EUR 2.10–2.15/kg, barring any sudden shifts in freight or currency.