India’s Chickpea Squeeze: Domestic Rally, Costly Imports and Tight Stocks

India’s chickpea market is entering a sustained bullish phase as domestic supplies tighten, imports become more expensive, and processors bid up physical stocks. Local desi and kabuli prices across key mandis are already moving higher, and traders see further upside until fresh Australian arrivals later in the year. India’s production recovery in 2025-26 is not enough to close the structural consumption gap, while weather losses, reduced acreage and thin import pipelines amplify the squeeze. Dal mills and besan processors are now the main demand engine, with limited stockist selling and a weak rupee supporting firm prices and strong basis levels.

Prices: Domestic Rally Led by Desi, Kabuli Follows

On 28 May at Delhi’s Lawrence Road, Rajasthan-origin desi chickpeas rose by about USD 1.17 per quintal to around USD 70.88 per quintal, with Madhya Pradesh lots at roughly USD 70.06–70.30 and the Jaipur line at USD 70.30–70.59 per quintal. Hapur market in Uttar Pradesh also firmed by about USD 0.58 per quintal, trading near USD 70.01–70.59 per quintal, driven by mill buying.

Kabuli chickpeas in Jaipur climbed a sharper USD 2.34 per quintal to approximately USD 102.69–113.18 per quintal, reflecting stronger export and premium-quality demand. Processed products are following: chickpea dal and besan gained about USD 0.29–0.58 per quintal, now in the USD 80.80–85.18 range, highlighting clear cost pass-through from raw material to value-added segments.

Indicative export price levels (FOB/FCA, converted to EUR)

The flat to slightly firmer export offers compared with earlier in May confirm that domestic strength in India is feeding through into international price indications, especially for larger calibres.

Supply & Demand: Structural Deficit and Weak Import Cushion

For 2025-26, India’s Agriculture Ministry pegs desi chickpea output at about 12.514 million tonnes, up from 11.114 million tonnes previously. Yet this remains below domestic consumption of roughly 13 million tonnes, leaving a structural deficit that must be filled by stocks or imports. This gap is the core driver behind the current and expected price strength.

Adverse weather during the October sowing window in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh cut yields significantly, with losses estimated at 26–27% in affected zones. Farmers had already reduced chickpea acreage after three years of unsatisfactory returns, so the production rebound is modest relative to potential, tightening available marketable surplus.

On the import side, Australian black chickpeas that had been feeding dal processors through Mundra and Mumbai have largely been exhausted, and the forward import pipeline is thin. June–July Australian shipments are quoted at around USD 7.12 per tonne CFR Indian ports, but the rupee’s weakness versus the dollar has sharply raised landed costs in local currency, undermining import economics just as domestic demand accelerates.

Fundamentals: Policy Floor, Substitutes and Stockist Behaviour

The government’s Minimum Support Price (MSP) offers a floor for farmer returns, but current spot market levels stand comfortably above MSP because of the tight balance sheet. This widens the cushion against downside corrections in the near term and supports farmer and stockist confidence in holding inventory.

Stockist selling remains measured, with holders reluctant to liquidate below prevailing prices amid a clearly bullish fundamental story. At the same time, imports of yellow peas — a frequent substitute in dal processing when chickpeas are scarce or expensive — have contracted markedly this season. This forces processors back into the chickpea market, concentrating demand in a context of limited supply flexibility.

Outlook: Firm to Higher into Kharif Season

Traders see Rajasthan-origin desi chickpeas advancing toward roughly USD 75.84 per quintal by June and potentially USD 81.68 per quintal before fresh Australian supplies arrive later in the year. With monsoon arrival approaching and kharif-season dal consumption and processing set to gradually intensify from June to October, spot and forward prices are biased upward.

The combination of a structural consumption surplus, weather-related losses, curtailed acreage, thin imports and currency weakness argues for an extended period of elevated price levels. Volatility is likely around monsoon progress and any policy signals on pulses, but the fundamental floor appears solid unless there is a major upside surprise in global supply or a sharp currency reversal.

Trading & Procurement Strategy

• Dal mills & processors: Consider staggered forward coverage through June–August rather than waiting for a pullback that may not materialise before Australian arrivals. Prioritise securing desi volumes and manage kabuli exposure carefully given its sharper recent gains.
• Importers & traders: With rupee weakness and elevated CFR levels, discretionary imports look unattractive unless basis strengthens further. Focus on timing and quality spreads between Australian, Indian and Mexican origins to capture relative value.
• Stockists: Fundamentals justify holding moderate inventories into the early kharif period, but be prepared for policy or monsoon-driven sentiment shifts. Use any short-term weather- or headline-induced dips to realign positions rather than exiting structurally.

Short-Term Direction (Next 3 Days)

• India domestic mandis (desi): Mildly firmer bias in key centres like Delhi and Hapur as mill demand persists and sellers remain cautious.
• India export offers (FOB/FCA): Steady to slightly higher in EUR terms, following domestic strength and currency effects.
• Mexican export market: Largely stable in EUR, but with upside risk if Indian buying interest in kabuli strengthens further.