Indian Bajra Surge Weighs on Global Millet Prices as New-Crop Flows Build

Indian bajra prices are entering a seasonal downswing as a much larger 2026 crop hits mandis in Rajasthan and Haryana, setting a softer tone for global millet values despite firm feed demand. Export and FOB quotations from China and Ukraine remain broadly steady in EUR terms, suggesting downside is likely to be gradual rather than abrupt. The millet market is pivoting from weather-driven concerns to supply realisation. A reported near‑50% jump in India’s bajra production to around 18 million tonnes is now materialising in key northern states, with dry conditions supporting both yields and grain quality. Domestic mandi prices in Rajasthan and Haryana have started to edge lower week-on-week, while European and Asian buyers still see relatively firm demand from feed and niche food sectors. Overall, this points to mildly bearish fundamentals with accumulating downside risks if arrivals from western Uttar Pradesh accelerate as expected.

Prices

New-crop bajra in producing markets is quoted around $23.28–23.81 per quintal, while Rajasthan-origin grain delivered into Haryana and Punjab trades near $24.76–24.87 per quintal. Converted at roughly 1 USD = 0.92 EUR, this implies about 21.4–21.9 EUR/100 kg at origin and 22.8–22.9 EUR/100 kg on inter-state movement, broadly in line with latest Rajasthan mandi averages around INR 2,000–2,090 per quintal (≈22.0–22.9 EUR/100 kg).

Export-oriented millet prices show a softer but mostly stable pattern. In China (FOB Beijing), non‑organic hulled yellow millet is indicated around 0.87 EUR/kg and organic around 0.95 EUR/kg, both around 2–3% higher than late August. Ukrainian offers ex‑Odesa remain flat, with conventional hulled kernels at about 0.61 EUR/kg FCA and organic around 1.20 EUR/kg FCA, while inshell seeds for feed and birdfood trade near 0.33–0.34 EUR/kg. The modest firmness in Chinese values contrasts with flat Black Sea prices, highlighting regionally divergent cost and demand structures.

Supply & Demand

India is the clear driver on the supply side. Current estimates place this season’s bajra crop at around 18 million tonnes, up from roughly 12–12.5 million tonnes last year, a near‑50% gain. Dry weather has supported both grain fill and quality in Rajasthan and Haryana, encouraging early selling as liquidity needs rise at farm level. Fresh arrivals from western Uttar Pradesh are expected over the coming weeks, which should further increase spot availability and reinforce the seasonal harvest pressure.

On the demand side, feed use remains robust as bajra and other millets compete with maize and broken rice in South Asian rations. However, the scale of this year’s Indian harvest suggests that even strong feed and local food demand may struggle to fully absorb the surplus at current price levels. Export demand for processed millet and kernels from China and Ukraine continues, but global trade volumes remain small relative to India’s domestic-oriented crop, limiting the ability of international buyers to offset Indian oversupply.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals are shifting decisively bearish with the confirmation of a bumper crop and steadily rising arrivals in Rajasthan and Haryana mandis. Recent price data from multiple market reporting platforms show Rajasthan average bajra prices easing from above INR 2,100 per quintal at the start of September towards the INR 2,050–2,090 range by 9–10 September, while volumes are trending higher. Haryana prices still command a modest premium but are also under pressure as cross-border flows from Rajasthan increase.

Weather-wise, the key Kharif phase has largely ended, with the crop having benefitted from stretches of dry weather that improved harvest logistics and grain quality. Short-term forecasts for northwestern India indicate mostly dry to scattered light showers, conditions that should facilitate continued field drying and rapid movement of grain into mandis and warehouses over the next 7–10 days. This will keep physical supply visible and is unlikely to offer any immediate weather-related support to prices.

Forecast & Trading Outlook

With new-crop arrivals in Rajasthan and Haryana already active and western Uttar Pradesh expected to add volume soon, spot bajra and millet prices are likely to face gradual but persistent downward pressure through late September. Strong feed demand should cushion the downside, especially in regions where bajra remains competitively priced versus maize, but the sheer size of the Indian crop and improving quality are clear headwinds. Export-oriented kernels from China and Ukraine may trade sideways to slightly weaker if buyers leverage the softer Indian backdrop in negotiations.

• Feed buyers / integrators: Consider scaling up coverage for Q4 2026 on price dips, particularly from Indian origin where new-crop pressure is most pronounced. Focus on quality lots benefitting from the dry harvest.
• Exporters & traders: Hedge downside exposure on existing long positions; basis in Rajasthan/Haryana could weaken further as western UP arrivals start. Look for opportunities to roll or re-price contracts linked to domestic mandi indices.
• European and MENA buyers: Use the current stability in Chinese and Ukrainian offers to diversify origin, but push for discounts by referencing easing Indian bajra benchmarks and rising global millet availability.

Over the next three trading days, Indian bajra prices at major Rajasthan and Haryana mandis are expected to trade slightly lower to sideways in EUR terms as arrivals build. Chinese FOB millet quotes should remain broadly steady with a mild downward bias if global feed demand softens, while Ukrainian FCA/FOB offers are likely to stay flat, supported by logistics risk premia but capped by the increasingly bearish Indian supply picture.