Indian Cardamom: Auction Volumes Jump as Rally Loses Steam

Auction arrivals are rising sharply in India’s small cardamom market, easing prices at auctions and in Delhi wholesale, but strong export demand and expensive Guatemalan origins are preventing a deeper correction. Indian auctions have moved into a clear new-crop phase, with arrivals jumping above 110 tonnes and average prices edging lower from recent highs. Delhi wholesale levels for 7.5 mm material have eased slightly after earlier gains, yet export data for the first two months of 2026‑27 point to a robust external market. Costly Guatemalan supply and firm export buying are underpinning sentiment, even as higher arrivals and softer domestic buying reduce the likelihood of a prolonged price rally.

Prices

At recent Indian auctions, new-crop arrivals reached around 110,310 kg on 26 September, up from roughly 79,769 kg on 17 September, while the average auction price slipped marginally to about ₹3,077.40/kg from around ₹3,090.98/kg previously. Delhi wholesale 7.5 mm cardamom was quoted around ₹3,050–3,100/kg after the latest gains, indicating a modest softening but no sharp break in levels.

FOB New Delhi export quotations in EUR remain firm despite the slight auction correction. Recent updates (26 September 2026) show non-organic whole green 7.5 mm cardamom at EUR 26.8/kg FOB, with 7–7.2 mm at EUR 24.9/kg and 6.5–6.8 mm at EUR 23.8/kg. Organic whole green 7.5–8 mm cardamom is indicated at EUR 19.4/kg FOB, while organic cardamom powder is around EUR 25.2/kg FOB, all marginally higher than mid‑September.

Supply & Demand

New-crop pressure is clearly visible on the supply side. Auction data for 26 September show combined arrivals above 100 tonnes at multiple centres, with individual auctions such as Kerala Cardamom Processing and Marketing Company and Green House Cardamom Marketing together exceeding 200 tonnes on the day. This aligns with the reported jump to around 110,310 kg at a recent auction versus roughly 79,769 kg on 17 September, signalling a broad-based harvest pick-up.

Despite heavier flows, export demand is strong. In the first two months of the 2026‑27 marketing year, India shipped about 2,276 tonnes of cardamom, roughly 50% higher by volume than the 1,520 tonnes exported a year earlier, with export earnings up around 46%. This underscores resilient overseas demand, helped by tighter or more expensive Guatemalan supply, and is absorbing part of the larger Indian crop, limiting downside risk for prices.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Fundamentals are shifting from a tight, rally-prone market towards a more balanced configuration. Rising arrivals and slightly softer buying interest at auctions are cooling expectations for a prolonged bull run, while average auction prices in late September remain mostly in the ₹3,050–3,200/kg band, only modestly off recent peaks. The export-led offtake and competitive pricing versus Guatemalan origins continue to support higher-quality grades.

On the external side, Guatemalan cardamom remains relatively costly, narrowing arbitrage opportunities for importers and making Indian origin attractive for key Middle Eastern and Asian buyers. Meanwhile, the auction schedule in Kerala and Idukki remains dense through late September, suggesting that the market will continue to see substantial daily arrivals into early October. Weather in South India has so far allowed steady harvest progress; unless heavy rains disrupt picking or curing, the short-term trend points to ample near-term availability.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Market participants should expect a consolidation phase rather than an extended rally in the coming days. Higher auction arrivals and somewhat softer domestic buying interest are likely to cap further upside, but strong exports and elevated Guatemalan prices are setting a relatively firm floor under Indian values. Overall, a sideways-to-slightly-softer bias is probable into early October, with quality spreads likely to widen.

• Exporters: Use current slight dips in auction averages to cover near-term shipments, especially for popular 7–7.5 mm grades, while keeping some flexibility for potential further softness if arrivals remain heavy.
• Importers / overseas buyers: Consider scaling in purchases of Indian origin at current FOB levels for Q4 coverage, as strong export flows and high Guatemalan prices reduce the likelihood of a deep correction.
• Domestic traders: Avoid chasing rallies; focus on selective buying on intraday or short-lived dips, with attention to quality and shelf life as the new crop flow normalises.

3‑Day Indicative Direction (Key Indian References)

• Kerala small cardamom auctions: Sideways to mildly softer, with elevated arrivals offset by solid export-led buying.
• Delhi wholesale (7.5 mm): Stable within the recent ₹3,050–3,100/kg band, minor intraday volatility likely.
• FOB New Delhi exports: Largely steady around current EUR levels, with any further downside limited by strong overseas demand and higher Guatemalan prices.