Indian Cashew Kernels Hold Firm as Monsoon Revives and Vietnam Stays Busy
Indian cashew kernel prices hold firm amid reviving monsoon and strong Vietnamese exports. Short-term outlook stable with slight upside risk in key grades.
Prices
All prices below are indicative and converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.93 EUR). They reflect latest offers for cashew kernels.
Indian FCA New Delhi kernel values have been broadly unchanged since 20–22 June, consolidating a small earlier uptick. Vietnam’s kernel export prices, after rising in May alongside record export volumes, remain firm and effectively underpin global benchmarks.
Supply & Demand
India’s domestic cashew supply outlook is stabilising as the southwest monsoon revives after an earlier stall. Nationally, June rainfall remained around 38–40% below normal to mid-June, but recent days have seen the monsoon become active again, with the India Meteorological Department and other reports flagging strengthening rain over Kerala and coastal Karnataka between 21 and 25 June and broader advance into central India.
These rains cover key cashew belts in Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Goa, easing immediate concerns of prolonged moisture stress for trees. However, the season still carries downside risk if overall monsoon performance remains below normal, as some analysis puts the probability of a poor monsoon at close to 60%.
On the global side, Vietnam has just recorded its highest monthly kernel export volume of 2026 in May, with export turnover and average export prices both increasing, driven particularly by strong demand from the US and continued large flows to the EU and other destinations. This keeps the international pipeline well-supplied in the near term, but firm kernel prices suggest that demand is absorbing this volume relatively well.
Fundamentals & Weather Outlook (India)
For India, weather remains the key short-term fundamental. After an early onset over Kerala in late May, the monsoon stalled, widening the national rainfall deficit. In the last few days, however, IMD-linked and media reports confirm that monsoon activity has revived, with heavy rainfall warnings issued for Kerala and coastal Karnataka and an advance towards central India.
Over the next 3–5 days, this pattern should support soil moisture in major cashew areas along the west coast while reducing heat stress in interior belts. For existing 2026 kernel availability, this has limited immediate impact, but it improves sentiment on medium-term raw cashew nut supply and discourages aggressive discounting by Indian processors.
3–Day Market & Trading Outlook
- India (New Delhi, kernels ex-warehouse FCA): With monsoon rains improving sentiment and no significant new supply shock, kernel prices for W320/W240 are likely to remain in a narrow range, with a mild upside bias if overseas demand stays firm.
- India (FOB export offers): Export parity for W320 and W240 is broadly aligned with Vietnamese offers; near-term moves are expected to be sideways, tracking Vietnam and global demand signals.
- Vietnam (FOB kernels): After strong May exports and higher average prices, offers are expected to hold firm; any further gains in the next few days should be modest and demand-driven.
Trading Recommendations (short term, 3–10 days)
- Buyers (roasters, packers in EU/Asia): Use the current stable window to cover nearby needs in standard grades (W320/W240) from both India and Vietnam; price downside looks limited while monsoon risk and firm Vietnam exports support the floor.
- Indian processors/exporters: Avoid undercutting on premium whole grades; maintain offers close to Vietnam benchmarks and monitor monsoon progression before committing to large forward discounts.
- Importers of Indian kernels: For spot and early-Q3 positions, stagger purchases but lean slightly long on core grades, as improved weather and firm external demand skew risks marginally to the upside.