Indian Cashew Kernels Edge Higher as Monsoon Outlook Turns Mixed

Indian cashew kernel prices are firm to slightly higher, with benchmark W320 and W240 grades in New Delhi edging up over the past week in EUR terms. A revived but still uneven monsoon and steady domestic demand are supporting values, while export buyers remain selective but active. Indian spot and FOB cashew prices are tracking a tight but not extreme fundamental backdrop. Domestic kernel prices convert to roughly EUR 6.30–6.40/kg for conventional W320 FCA New Delhi, modestly above last week. Vietnam reference offers for W320 remain competitive but broadly stable, limiting upside. The southwest monsoon has improved since late June, yet forecasts of weaker rainfall over western and southern India in the next fortnight temper confidence about raw cashew nut availability later in the season, supporting a mildly bullish tone.

Prices

Using an indicative rate of EUR 1 = USD 1.10, current New Delhi FCA prices translate to:

Recent mandi data in India show average cashewnut prices around INR 50,400/quintal nationally (≈ EUR 5.58/kg for raw nuts), underlining firm raw material costs for processors. 

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, India remains heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon across key cashew-producing states such as Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala. June rainfall was significantly below long-period average, but July rains have revived across much of central India, reducing the national deficit and improving Kharif prospects overall. 

However, short-term forecasts now point to below-average rainfall over western and southern regions, including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala, over the next two weeks.  This raises some concern over moisture stress for cashew orchards on lighter soils and could curb the potential for a larger 2026/27 raw cashew crop if deficits persist.

Demand-wise, Indian domestic consumption remains a stabilising factor, with steady festival and confectionery demand helping processors maintain run-rates despite global uncertainty. Earlier government dashboards highlighted that strong import demand from the US, EU and Middle East had kept global kernel prices firm into early 2026, and anecdotal trade feedback still points to active inquiries from Europe and the Middle East ahead of Q4. 

Vietnamese exporters continue to offer competitively priced kernels, with recent market reports indicating W320 export quotes around USD 6.6–7.2/kg for roasted kernels depending on specification,  and FOB references near USD 4.65/lb for standard W320.  This caps aggressive upside for Indian exporters on traditional markets, even as some buyers prefer India for specific quality profiles.

Weather Outlook (India cashew belt)

The India Meteorological Department confirms that the monsoon has advanced across coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa and Kerala, but the all-India rainfall deficit between June 1 and July 1 remained close to 38–40% below average.  Heavy rains along parts of the west coast in early July have since narrowed the deficit, yet distribution remains uneven.

Looking ahead, official and independent forecasts suggest a weakening of the monsoon over western and southern India in the coming fortnight, implying below-normal rainfall over Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.  For cashew orchards, this pattern points to largely supportive moisture conditions in the short term but growing downside risk if sub-par rains extend into late July and August.

Fundamentals & Price Drivers

• Raw nut costs: Firm mandi prices and limited relief from weather so far keep raw cashew nut replacement costs elevated in India, underpinning kernel prices.
• Trade flows: Recent trade data confirm ongoing Vietnamese exports of cashew nuts and kernels, with multiple exporters actively shipping HS 0801 products.  This ensures importers retain alternatives to Indian origin.
• Global demand: Previous dashboards signalled tightening import supply and strong restocking in key consuming regions; although current-week data are limited, there are no signs of a demand collapse, and price indices still show only marginal week-on-week moves. 
• Macro & FX: A relatively firm USD keeps export returns attractive for Indian sellers even as they face higher local input costs; movements in EUR/USD will directly affect competitiveness into Europe.

3-Day Trading & Price Outlook (IN)

For India (region: IN) over the next three trading days (14–16 July 2026), the cashew kernel market is expected to remain firm with a mild upward bias, assuming no sharp shift in monsoon forecasts.

• India, FCA New Delhi W240/W320: Sideways to +0.5% in EUR terms as processors test slightly higher offers, supported by raw nut costs and cautious selling.
• India, FOB New Delhi W240/W320: Largely steady; any gains are likely constrained by stable yet competitive Vietnam offers and buyer resistance to sharp mark-ups.
• Lower grades (LWP/SWP): Slightly firmer as snack and ingredient demand remains active and buyers seek value grades amid elevated whole-kernel prices.

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers (roasters, packers): Consider covering near-term needs in Indian W320 and LWP at current levels, as weather-related uncertainty in western and southern India could lend further support if rainfall weakens as forecast.
• Exporters (India): Maintain offer discipline but avoid aggressive hikes; benchmark against current Vietnam FOB references and focus on quality-sensitive markets (EU, Middle East) where India holds a premium.
• Importers (EU/US): Diversify origin between India and Vietnam to manage supply risk, using any short-term dips triggered by monsoon improvement headlines to extend coverage into Q4.