Nigeria’s High Raw Nut Prices Reshuffle Global Cashew Trade Flows

Nigeria’s sharply higher raw cashew nut prices are pushing Vietnamese buyers toward cheaper West African origins, notably Côte d’Ivoire, while reinforcing the economic case for more local processing in Nigeria. Kernel prices in Europe and Asia remain broadly firm but range-bound, with only modest recent gains. The current cashew market is defined by a pronounced price divergence among African raw cashew exporters, strong Vietnamese import demand and a slow but visible shift toward origin processing. Nigeria’s May 2026 shipments to Vietnam slumped as exporters priced themselves out of the market, whereas Côte d’Ivoire rapidly scaled up sales into the same destination. At the same time, kernel prices in Europe and Asia indicate a balanced but fragile equilibrium between ample raw nut availability and steady downstream demand for healthy snack nuts. Weather risks in West Africa are moderate but bear watching, especially for quality. For traders and processors, procurement timing and origin diversification are the key levers over the coming weeks.

Prices

Benchmark raw cashew nut (RCN) offers from Nigeria to Vietnam were reported near USD 1,600/tonne in May 2026, far above Côte d’Ivoire levels around USD 960/tonne. This spread made Nigerian origin uncompetitive versus Côte d’Ivoire and other African suppliers.

Alongside this, processed cashew from Nigeria can command close to USD 4,500/tonne, highlighting the significant value gap between raw and processed exports. On the kernel side, recent physical offers suggest moderately firm, stable prices in key hubs, with India and Vietnam still setting the reference for W240 and W320 grades, and European re-exporters operating at slimmer margins.

(All converted from listed USD prices using an approximate rate of 1 EUR = 1.16 USD.)

Supply & Demand

Nigeria’s raw cashew nut exports to Vietnam fell to 49,507 tonnes in May 2026, worth about USD 79 million, compared with 69,728 tonnes a year earlier. The key driver was price: Nigerian RCN at roughly USD 1,600/tonne lost out to significantly cheaper West African origins.

Côte d’Ivoire captured much of this displaced demand, shipping around 107,090 tonnes of RCN to Vietnam in May, up 93% year on year. Over January–May 2026, Vietnam imported nearly 1.45 million tonnes of cashew, with Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria together supplying about 339,000 tonnes (23% of total imports). This underlines Vietnam’s continued reliance on African RCN, but with growing origin flexibility.

On the demand side, Vietnam’s kernel exports remain supported by global snack and ingredient use, even as some mature markets show price sensitivity. In Europe, current spot kernel prices near 7.5 EUR/kg retail-equivalent in the Netherlands reflect resilient consumer interest combined with higher logistics and processing costs.

Fundamentals & Nigeria Processing Outlook

The sharp reduction in Nigerian RCN shipments has renewed domestic debate about overreliance on raw exports. Industry representatives estimate that Nigeria processes less than 10% of its annual cashew output locally, forfeiting the significant value premium that processed kernels achieve compared with raw nuts.

Expanding local processing capacity would support farm-gate prices, create rural employment and stabilise export earnings by shifting Nigeria up the value chain. At kernel values around USD 4,500/tonne, even modest increases in processed volumes could materially improve sector income. However, bottlenecks in finance, infrastructure, technology and quality standardisation remain substantial barriers.

Global fundamentals are otherwise relatively balanced: overall RCN supply from West and East Africa is adequate, while demand growth is steady rather than explosive. In this context, origin pricing discipline and quality differentiation are increasingly decisive in winning Vietnamese contracts.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Recent monitoring points to mostly seasonally normal conditions across much of West Africa’s cashew belt, though parts of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana have seen uneven rainfall and localized dryness during mid-season. This creates some risk for nut size and drying conditions but does not currently threaten overall production volumes.

A dedicated early-July weather update for Côte d’Ivoire highlights moderate risk for the 2026 cashew season, with untimely rains around harvest complicating post-harvest drying and potentially affecting nut quality rather than yields. Nigeria and Ghana are also forecast to experience generally adequate rainfall but with above-normal temperatures, which may accelerate pest and disease pressure if not managed.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Insights

• Raw nut flows: Expect Vietnam to keep favouring competitively priced origins like Côte d’Ivoire as long as Nigeria maintains a wide price premium. Any downward adjustment in Nigerian RCN offers could quickly restore some share.
• Nigeria processing upside: High international RCN benchmarks versus kernel returns strengthen the case for investment in Nigerian processing plants. Policy support (credit lines, infrastructure, quality labs) will be critical to unlock this potential.
• Kernel prices: With raw supply comfortable and demand steady, kernel prices are likely to trade sideways to slightly firm in Q3 2026, especially for higher grades (W240/W320). Premiums for reliable quality and certification (organic, food safety) are expected to widen.
• Risk factors: Weather-related quality issues in West Africa, logistics disruptions and currency volatility in key origins could all tighten availability of top-grade kernels and support price spikes.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (Kernels, EUR)

• India – New Delhi (FOB, W240/W320): Stable to slightly firm; buyers should not expect meaningful discounts in the next 3 days.
• Vietnam – Hanoi (FOB, WW320): Sideways; competitive offers persist but room for further downside is limited given raw nut costs.
• Netherlands – Dordrecht (FCA, WW320 & pieces): Mild upward bias, driven by steady EU retail demand and higher replenishment costs.