Cashew Market Steadies as Demand from Iraq and Global Buyers Stays Firm
Global cashew prices are edging higher on firm demand and constrained raw nut supply, with Iraq emerging as a fast-growing nut importer. Outlook: mildly bullish.
Prices
Recent offers show a gradual but broad-based uptick in cashew kernel values. In India (New Delhi, FOB), conventional W320 is indicated around EUR 7.0/kg, up roughly EUR 0.05 over the last two weeks, while organic W320 trades near EUR 8.65/kg. W240 grades are quoted around EUR 7.50/kg (conventional) and EUR 7.93/kg (organic), and W450 about EUR 6.30/kg.
Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB) remains the global benchmark with WW320 around EUR 6.87/kg and WW240 near EUR 7.78/kg, broadly stable but at the upper end of this year’s range. In the Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA), imported WW320 offers cluster around EUR 4.95–6.05/kg depending on organic status and origin, reflecting both freight and inventory factors. Across nearly all grades, prices have edged higher by EUR 0.05–0.15/kg since early June, confirming a gently firming trend rather than a sharp rally.
Supply & Demand
Iraq’s import bill for edible fruits and nuts jumped from USD 1.25 billion in 2024 to USD 1.54 billion in 2025, an increase of USD 291.5 million. Nuts alone accounted for about USD 199 million, making Iraq an increasingly important buyer within the global nuts complex. This acceleration reflects rising per-capita consumption and an expanding retail and foodservice sector, supporting incremental demand for cashews alongside other tree nuts.
Globally, total imports of edible fruits and nuts reached roughly USD 192.7 billion in 2025, with the United States, China, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK leading purchases. This broad-based demand backdrop has underpinned cashew consumption even as prices firmed. Q1–Q2 2026 market reports point to tight raw cashew nut availability from West Africa and steady kernel off-take in the US and EU, keeping kernel pipelines reasonably full but leaving little room for supply shocks.
Fundamentals
Fundamentals remain moderately supportive. A 2025/26 global raw cashew harvest estimated above 6.3 million tons has increased theoretical supply, but logistics bottlenecks, quality dispersion in West Africa, and selective farmer selling have limited pressure on kernel prices. Recent analysis highlights that processors’ margins remain tight, encouraging disciplined forward sales and preventing aggressive discounting.
On the demand side, resilient snack and ingredients consumption in North America and Europe is joined by stronger buying from emerging markets, including Iraq and other MENA countries. Some price-sensitive consumers are trading down to smaller pack sizes or mixed nuts, but overall cashew demand has held up through H1 2026, especially for mid-grade kernels (W320, W450) used in mainstream retail products. Trade dashboards for early 2026 suggest sideways-to-firm export prices for India and Vietnam, with only limited scope for downside in the short run.
Weather & Crop Outlook
Weather poses a key near-term risk. India’s July 2026 outlook points to below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across large parts of the country, raising concerns over tree stress and flowering for the next cashew cycle in some producing states. At the same time, global hazard maps highlight flooding episodes in parts of West Africa, which could disrupt logistics and post-harvest handling in coastal cashew origins if conditions persist.
While major 2025/26 crops in Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau have already been harvested, any extended weather anomalies could affect quality of remaining stocks, drying conditions and transport, indirectly supporting kernel prices. Medium-term climate outlooks for Vietnam’s Central Highlands emphasize weather as a decisive factor for productivity and costs, but no acute new shock has been reported in recent days. Overall, the short-term weather signal is mildly supportive for prices through risk premia rather than immediate loss of volume.
Market & Trading Outlook
Through the next few weeks, the cashew market is likely to remain in a stable-to-firm price band. Strong structural demand for nuts, evidenced by Iraq’s rising imports and continued buying by the US and EU, is meeting a supply chain that is ample on paper but constrained by quality, financing and logistics. Analysts expect more of a plateau than a sharp rally for kernels in H2 2026, unless a significant weather or policy shock emerges.
- Buyers (roasters, retailers): Consider covering Q3–early Q4 needs on remaining dips rather than waiting for cheaper levels that may not materialise. Prioritise mid-grades (W320, W450) where spreads to premiums remain manageable.
- Importers in MENA (incl. Iraq): With domestic demand expanding and competition for supply increasing, secure core volumes under medium-term contracts while leaving a smaller share for spot opportunities.
- Processors and exporters: Maintain disciplined sales; given tight raw nut margins and weather risk, avoid heavy forward selling below current replacement costs.
3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
- India, FOB New Delhi (W320/W240): Sideways to slightly firmer; narrow gains of up to EUR 0.05/kg possible on active buying.
- Vietnam, FOB Hanoi (WW320/WW240): Largely stable; benchmark levels expected to hold within the current range.
- EU, FCA Netherlands (WW320, mixed origins): Slight upward bias as importers rebuild stocks and freight remains steady.