Cashew Market Stays Firm as Premium Kernels Tighten and RCN Costs Rise

Global cashew prices remain firmly supported as higher raw cashew nut (RCN) costs, weaker raw nut quality and limited premium kernel availability offset the impact of a near-record 2026 crop. Steady demand from Europe and the Middle East, combined with a recovering U.S. market, keeps downside risk in prices limited for the coming weeks. The market is characterised by strong RCN imports into Vietnam, firmer domestic activity in India and robust kernel buying for large white grades from Europe and the Middle East. At the same time, quality issues in West Africa, elevated freight from Asia to Europe and volatile currencies are lifting landed costs for buyers. With demand outpacing expectations and premium kernels scarce, buyers are advised to plan coverage carefully and avoid over-reliance on spot availability.

Prices

International kernel prices are holding firm. Vietnam W320 is indicated around USD 3.20/lb (≈ EUR 6.50–6.70/kg), while Indian W320 trades near USD 3.75/lb (≈ EUR 7.60–7.90/kg), with larger grades W180–W240 commanding a notable premium. Premium white kernels face persistent tightness, supporting offers across major processing hubs.

Current offer indications broadly align with this firm tone. In India (New Delhi, FCA), conventional W320 kernels are offered around EUR 6.30–6.50/kg, W240 near EUR 6.40–6.60/kg and W450 around EUR 5.50–5.70/kg. In Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB), WW320 is near EUR 6.10–6.30/kg and WW240 close to EUR 6.90–7.10/kg, while European distribution stocks (Netherlands, FCA) for WW320 sit around EUR 4.50–4.80/kg, reflecting margins, logistics differences and grade mix.

Supply & Demand

The global 2026 cashew crop is expected to be the second-largest on record, yet supply feels tight at the premium end. Vietnam imported about 1.58 million tons of RCN in January–June 2026, up nearly 10% year-on-year, and at a higher average import price of around USD 1,684/ton, signalling strong procurement competition and cost pressure at origin. Kernel export volumes from Vietnam slipped slightly in the same period, but higher average export prices near USD 7,004/ton underline the firmer market.

Europe is a key demand engine. EU kernel imports rose to 65,688 tons in Q1 2026 from 60,923 tons a year earlier, with imports from African origins up sharply to 15,948 tons in January–April 2026. European buyers are extending enquiries into forward shipment windows, especially for larger grades W180, W210 and W240, while maintaining steady interest in W320. In the Middle East, Dubai and Turkey show healthy demand for high-quality white kernels, but availability is constrained by this season’s weaker RCN quality.

Regional dynamics are mixed. In West Africa, the 2026 season is moving toward completion, with Ghana reported to have sharply lower available stocks and fresh arrivals slowing. Côte d’Ivoire’s domestic market is subdued amid rainfall and quality concerns, although the country still exported around 45,322 tons of kernels in January–May 2026 at an average price near USD 5,265/ton. Guinea-Bissau, Senegal and Gambia are seeing firm RCN prices supported by slower post-Eid flows, moisture-related quality issues and elevated logistics costs.

Fundamentals & Costs

Fundamentals remain constructive. Firm RCN prices from key West African suppliers such as Guinea-Bissau and Burkina Faso, where new-crop offers are reported around USD 1,700/ton (53 lbs) and USD 1,450/ton (46 lbs) respectively, are supporting kernel price floors. Overall, lower RCN quality this season reduces yields of premium white kernels, amplifying tightness in larger grades even as headline supply looks comfortable.

Processing and logistics costs further underpin prices. Vietnam–Europe freight rates have surpassed USD 3,000 per container, increasing landed costs for EU buyers. Broader container markets show elevated Asia–US and Asia–EU freight compared with pre-2024 levels, linked to higher fuel prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which also feed into bunker surcharges and insurance costs. Currency volatility, particularly in India where the rupee is projected to trade in a wide range against the U.S. dollar, adds another layer of uncertainty to processor margins and offer levels.

Demand-side fundamentals are robust. Europe’s structural shift toward plant-based snacks and nuts continues, while the Middle East and a gradually recovering U.S. market are absorbing steady volumes. In India, the domestic kernel market has improved with firmer offers for selective grades and better enquiries, supported by nearly completed local crop arrivals and improved RCN inflows at ports. Despite reports of some overstocked RCN positions in parts of India, overall global demand is performing better than earlier expected for 2026.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Most Northern Hemisphere origins are now past the main 2026 harvest, limiting near-term weather risk but leaving quality concerns in focus. In Côte d’Ivoire and parts of West Africa, earlier rainfall patterns and handling issues have translated into higher moisture and more defects in RCN stocks, pressuring outturns and premium kernel yields. Similar quality pressures are reported from Senegal and Gambia, where slower post-Eid flows and storage conditions contribute to uneven lots.

Looking ahead to late-2026 and early-2027, market participants expect global production to remain historically high but not excessive, with incremental growth in African output offset by flat or only modestly higher crops in India and Vietnam. Given that demand continues to expand, particularly in Europe and Asia, even minor weather disruptions in key African or Indian growing regions could quickly tighten RCN availability in the next marketing year and keep the market sensitive to any adverse seasonal forecasts.

Trading Outlook (Next 4–8 Weeks)

• Bias: Market tone remains firm to slightly higher, especially for larger white grades and premium kernels. Downside appears limited unless there is a surprise improvement in RCN quality or a sudden demand slowdown.
• Buyers (EU, Middle East, U.S.): Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 needs now, particularly W180–W240 and high-quality W320, to hedge against further freight or currency-driven cost increases. Maintain some flexibility for opportunistic spot buying if RCN pressure eases.
• Processors (Vietnam, India, Africa): Protect margins with disciplined RCN procurement, focusing on quality and outturn rather than headline price. Where possible, link kernel offers to freight and FX clauses to reduce exposure to logistics and currency swings.
• Traders: Premium–standard grade spreads are likely to stay wide. Strategies that capture this differential (e.g. holding premium whites against short positions in brokens or lower grades) may remain attractive, but liquidity in top grades is limited.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction in EUR)

• Vietnam (FOB, WW320/WW240): Stable to slightly firmer in EUR terms, supported by firm RCN costs and steady export demand.
• India (FCA/FOB, W320/W240): Firm with mild upside risk due to currency volatility and tight availability of top-quality raw material.
• Europe (FCA main hubs, standard grades): Mostly stable but with upward pressure on replacement costs from freight and origin prices; discounts remain scarce for premium kernels.